1. Bio-fuel crops and P fertilizer
liquid bio-fuels a “green gold”?
– mitigate global climate change,
(Europe)
– promote energy security, and
(USA)
– support agricultural producers.
(Brazil)

2. Bio-fuel crops and P fertilizer
Policies aimed at promoting the use of liquid bio-fuels
Brazil, PROALCOOL Programme:
• A blending requirement that all gasoline used in Brazil contain a minimum of 25% anhydrous alcohol,
• The banning of diesel-powered personal vehicles to boost the demand for ethanol powered vehicles;
• A requirement that all government entities purchase 100% hydrated alcohol fuelled vehicles,
• A taxing regime that is favourable to ethanol compared to gasoline,
• Low interest loans for financing producer owned stocks;
• A protective tariff of 20% ad valorem;
• The potential for special production subsidies for the North-eastern section of Brazil; and
• Brazil successfully reintroduced its flex-fuel vehicle in 2006 that runs on any blend of gasoline.

3. Bio-fuel crops and P fertilizer

4. Bio-fuel crops and P fertilizer

5. Bio-fuel crops and P fertilizer

6. Bio-fuel crops and P fertilizer
Conclusions:
Limited extent to energy security and this typically at high cost;
Carbon taxes, tradable permits and energy conservation may be more cost-effective than bio-fuels in reducing greenhouse gas emissions;
Where the agricultural sector is able to respond to higher price incentives. This depends on infrastructure, institutions, technology, the scale of production and other factors as is true for agriculture in general.

7. Bio-fuel crops and P fertilizer
A typical 190 million l ethanol plant needs 460,000 t stock feed from 52,000 ha when yields are 8.8 t/ha

8. Bio-fuel crops and P fertilizer
Technological developments in bio fuels could radically alter biomass requirements
US: corn used for ethanol production doubled in the last four years
Brazil: 6 million ha sugar cane planting in % of crop for ethanol production
China: annual ethanol production increase from 1 billion gallons to 1.7 billion gallons by 2010

9. Bio-fuel crops and P fertilizer

10. Bio-fuel crops and P fertilizer

11. Bio-fuel crops and P fertilizer

12. Bio-fuel crops and P fertilizer
Global supply potential for ethanol
Global acreage
Supply as % of 2003
Crop
(million hectares)
global gasoline use, %
Wheat
215 12
Rice
150 16
Corn
145 17
Sorghum 45 1
Sugarcane 20 6
Cassava 19 2
Sugar beet
5.4
Total
599 57

13. Bio-fuel crops and P fertilizer

14. Bio-fuel crops and P fertilizer
Sources of crop growth

15. Bio-fuel crops and P fertilizer
Potential for crop land expansion

16. Bio-fuel crops and P fertilizer
Land suitability for crop land expansion

17. Bio-fuel crops and P fertilizer
Potential yield increases, wheat

18. Bio-fuel crops and P fertilizer
Fertilizer implications
New bio fuel crops need fertilizers;
The yield of other crop areas needs to be raised in order to sustain food production and other agricultural products and;
There will also be opportunities to develop special fertilizer grades for use on energy crops

19. Bio-fuel crops and P fertilizer
Past and Projected Global Fertilizer Consumption

20. Bio-fuel crops and P fertilizer
Scenarios investigated
Scenario 1 - Increase in Bio-Energy Crop Yield
Scenario 2 – Early Adoption of High Yielding Technology
Scenario 3 – Proportional (Ratio) Fertilizer Projections Based on Land and Crop Projections

21. Bio-fuel crops and P fertilizer
Scenario 1 - Increase in Bio-Energy Crop Yield, sugarcane in Latin America
2015
2030
Base
3.75%
7.50%
15%
Latin America
14.8
15.41
16.01
17.22
16.7
17.36
18.02
19.35

22. Bio-fuel crops and P fertilizer
Scenario 1 - Increase in Bio-Energy Crop Yield, maize in North America
2015
2030
Base
3.75%
7.50%
15%
North America
25.2
26.12
27.03
28.87
27.9
28.91
29.92
31.94

23. Bio-fuel crops and P fertilizer
Scenario 1 - Increase in Bio-Energy Crop Yield, oil palm in Asia
2015
2030
Base
3.75%
7.50%
15%
Asia
90.9
94.18
97.45
104.01
115.2
119.65
124.1
133

24. Bio-fuel crops and P fertilizer
Scenario 2 – Early Adoption of High Yielding Technology
achieving projected yields for 2030 and 2050 in 2015 and 2030 N
P2O5
K2O
Total
2005
86.8
35.8
26.8
149.5
2015
99.9
40.1
29.4
169.4
2030
111.9
43.4
32.6
187.9
2050
127.1
48.4
37.6
213.1

25. Bio-fuel crops and P fertilizer
Scenario 3 – Proportional (Ratio) Fertilizer Projections Based on Land and Crop Projections
base scenario for 2015 N
P2O5
K2O
Total
5.2
4.5
5.1
14.8

26. Bio-fuel crops and P fertilizer
Scenario 3 – Proportional (Ratio) Fertilizer Projections Based on Land and Crop Projections
base scenario for 2015 N
P2O5
K2O
Total
14.9
5.1
25.2

27. Bio-fuel crops and P fertilizer
Scenario 3 – Proportional (Ratio) Fertilizer Projections Based on Land and Crop Projections
base scenario for 2015 N
P2O5
K2O
Total
56.2
21.5
13.2
90.9

28. Bio-fuel crops and P fertilizer
Scenario 3 – Proportional (Ratio) Fertilizer Projections Based on Land and Crop Projections
Million tonnes plant nutrient, by increment bio-fuel crop production
2015
2030
Production Change
Base 5%
10%
20%
North America
25.2
26.3
27.5
29.8
27.9
29.2
30.4
32.9
Latin America
14.8
15.4
15.9
17.0
16.7
17.3
17.9
19.2
Asia
90.9
95.3
99.6
108.4
115.2
120.7
126.2
137.2
Other
38.5
28.0
World
169.4
175.5
181.5
193.6
187.8
195.2
202.6
217.4
Potential impact
6.1
12.1
24.2
7.4
29.6
3.6%
7.2%
14.3%
3.9%
7.9%
15.7%

29. Bio-fuel crops and P fertilizer
Increment requirement when bio-fuel crop production increases in response to bio-fuel demand in 2015, million tonnes P2O5 : 5%
10%
20%
North America
0.23
0.46
0.92
Latin America
0.17
0.33
0.67
Asia
1.03
2.07
4.13