1. Projections of Wisconsin High School Graduates 2016/17-2025/26
Presentation for the
University of Wisconsin System
Office of Policy Analysis and Research
December 12, 2017
Thank you for coming today. I’m here to present the results of a study that the Applied Population Lab did for the Univ. of Wisconsin System to project the number of future high school graduates from Wisconsin’s schools between 2016 and The Applied Population Lab (APL) is a group of research and outreach professionals within the Dept. of Community and Environmental Sociology here on this campus.
We are demographers, geographers, planners, and sociologists who provide demographic information to organizations and individuals in the State of Wisconsin and sometimes beyond. This is (I believe) the forth time that we have completed this type of project projecting high school graduates for UW-System. We also work around the state projecting K-12 school district enrollment.
You will notice that I’ll be presenting some information that goes beyond high school graduate projections to look at why we are experiencing these trends in relation to the broader demographic structure of the State of Wisconsin: things like age structure of the population, K-12 school enrollment trends, birth data, and minority population change. At the APL, we are uniquely suited to address this demographic context, because we are a State Data Center of the U.S. Census Bureau and are experts at working with Census data and other demographic datasets that describe population changes.
Sarah Kemp & David Egan-Robertson
Applied Population Laboratory or

2. Wisconsin Age Structure by Race/Ethnicity
The minority population is much younger on average and the number of people at prime childbearing ages (20-39) proportionally larger than the non-Hispanic White population. Minorities can be expected to make up a growing share of the number of births in the state. Projected increases in the number of graduates of color, and Hispanic graduates in particular, are related to the young age structure of persons of color overall in the State of Wisconsin.

3. Births to Wisconsin Mothers, 1990-2015
This chart shows births to mothers residing in Wisconsin 1990 to Births declined through 1980s and 1990s, until reaching a low point in The low birth numbers of the late 1990s and early 2000s primarily resulted from the relatively few number of Gen X parents in their prime childbearing years. From 1997 to 2007 births increased until the economic recession in Births have declined since 2008, largely attributed to the Great Recession and the reduced fertility rates that have continued in spite of economic recovery.

4. Wisconsin Births by Race/Ethnicity, 1990-2015
This chart shows the trends by race/ethnicity from 1990 to Most of the 1990s upturn in births was due a greater number of births in the minority population, with 63% of the rise from attributable largely to Hispanic births. Since 2007 births to White mothers has decreased, while births to Hispanic, Black, Asian, and American Indian mothers have been increasing moderately. In 2007, 75% of the births that occurred were of non-Hispanic White mothers, while in 2015 the percentage dropped to 72%.

5. Wisconsin’s K-12 School Enrollment, Fall 2015
The most important thing that tells us how many graduates there will be in the future, is the cohort size of each graduating class. This chart shows the cohort size by grade in the Fall of Overall, the current count of high school students is higher than for younger students. In Fall 2015, there were 3,132 more 9th grade students enrolled in Wisconsin’s schools than there were 5th graders.
Over the last several years, the number of entering kindergarteners has not been enough to replace the larger cohorts of graduates. This differential has created an age structure in the school system where high school students outnumber younger students who will eventually replace them.

6. How has enrollment changed over time and geographically?
Public School Enrollment Change by School District 2010/ /16
The largest driver of future high school graduates is student enrollment in Wisconsin’s K-12 schools. Statewide enrollment has been slightly declining overall in recent years, though some urban, suburban, and exurban school districts have seen growth. This map shows observed school enrollment change in Wisconsin’s K-12 public school districts between Fall 2010 and Fall At the State level, K-12 enrollment declined by about 2.7% (counting both public and private schools).
Between 2010/11 and 2015/16, 65% of Wisconsin’s public K-12 school districts experienced enrollment declines. However, these decreases have not occurred uniformly across the state. Several school districts (mostly suburban and exurban) have seen increases over the last several years. Districts experiencing growth and decline almost balance one another, so statewide public school enrollment experienced a slight decrease of K-12 students between 2010/11 and 2015/16. Combining public and private schools the State has seen a 1.3% decrease between 2010/11 and 2015/16.
Decline has occurred in the north and central parts of State. Growth in Madison suburbs and a some districts here and there, often due to a concentration of Hispanic population or virtual schools added to the district. Also keep in mind that this map is showing percent and not actual number so smaller districts will show a greater % increase or decrease because of their size.
K-12 School Enrollment is declining slightly by 1.3%.
Between , 65% of school districts declined.

7. Wisconsin’s School Enrollment, 1962-2016
Statewide enrollment was at its historical peak in the late 1960s and early 1970s, when the Baby Boom generation was attending school. Similarly, enrollment rose in the 1990s when the Boomer’s children were in school.
Since reaching its recent peak in 1997/98, statewide enrollment has declined gradually over the last twenty years. As Figure 5 illustrates, the state has not seen the dramatic enrollment swings of the previous decades in recent history.

8. Public School Enrollment Projections by Race/Ethnicity
In Fall 2015, non-Hispanic White students comprised 72% of Wisconsin’s total public student population, while they comprised 78% of the population in Fall 2006.
Black (7.0%) and American Indian (1.0%) enrollment has declined in recent years, while Hispanic (8.25%) and Asian/Pacific Islander (3.5%) enrollment has increased.
Black graduates projected to decline partially due to an artifact of DPI’s shift to allow parents/students to identify as multi-racial.

9. Wisconsin High School Graduates, 2000-2016
This chart shows the total high school graduates from Wisconsin’s public and private high schools since The number of graduates increased from 63,830 in 1999/00 to 70,140 in 2008/09 (+6,310). Since 2008/09, the number of graduates has declined by 5,337 (-7.6%).

10. High School Graduates of Color by County, 2016
Milwaukee County had by far the largest number of graduates (9,879), followed by Waukesha County (5,376), Dane County (5,335), and Brown County (3,083). Overall, graduates are clustered in multi-county areas in the southeast part of the state and the Green Bay and Fox Valley areas. The northern and southwestern parts have relatively fewer graduates.
Minority students and graduates vary geographically across the state. Blacks and Hispanics are concen­trated in the southern and eastern parts of the state. Asians and American Indians are more widely distribu­ted across different areas of Wisconsin, but are still concentrated in particular areas. Currently, Hispanic students are the largest minority group in Wisconsin public schools.
Milwaukee County had the largest number of minority graduates (4,563), followed by Dane County (1,495), Waukesha County (792), and Brown County (730). Similar to all graduates, minority graduates are clustered in the southeast part of the state and in the Green Bay and Fox Valley areas.

11. Wisconsin Workforce Development Areas
We generated projections by county and by Workforce Development Area defined by the Wisconsin Office of Workforce Development.

12. Percent Change in Graduates by WDA, 2011-2016
This chart shows the percent change of high school graduates by WDA from 2010/11 through 2015/16. All WDAs experienced a decline in the number of high school graduates, except South Central, Southeast and Milwaukee over this six year period. Northcentral WDA saw the largest percent decline.

13. Plans to Pursue a 2 Year or 4 Year College Education
In order to better understand how projected numbers of high school graduates may translate into higher education students, we examined data from an annual Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction (DPI) survey of public high school seniors that asks about students’ post-graduation plans. High school seniors’ plans to enroll in a two-year or four-year college vary widely by sex, race/ethnicity, and region.
In recent years, an average of 50% of Wisconsin high school graduates plan to attend a four-year college. Females were more likely than males to plan to attend college: 56% of female seniors com­pared to 44% of male seniors. On average, 20.5% of Wisconsin’s high school 12th graders planned to attend a vocational or technical college. Males were only slightly more likely than females to attend a vocational or technical college: 21% males compared to 20% females.

14. Plans to Pursue 4 Year College Education
This map shows the average percent of high school graduates planning to pursue a four-year college degree by county. Ozaukee County has the highest percent planning to enroll in a four-year college (74%), followed by Waukesha County (70%), Brown County (68%), and Washington County (61%). Menominee County has the lowest percentage of graduates planning to enroll in a four-year college (11.6%), followed by Iron County (29.6%).
The WOW WDA has both the highest number of graduates on average and the highest percent who plan to attend a four-year college. The Northwest WDA has the
lowest number of graduates and the lowest percent planning to attend a four-year college.

15. Plans to Pursue a College Education by Race/Ethnicity
While 56% of non-Hispanic White 12th graders plan to enroll in four-year colleges, 64% of Asian/Pacific Islander high school seniors plan to enroll. On average, 39% of Hispanic, 42% of Black, and 43% American Indian 12th graders plan to enroll at a four-year college campus. 22% of non-Hispanic White 12th graders plan to enroll in a vocational or technical college. On average, 19% of Asian/Pacific Islander, 24% of Black, 26% of Hispanic, and 32% of American Indian 12th graders plan to enroll at a vocational or technical college.

16. Public High School Completion Rates
Graduation rates for Wisconsin’s public school students overall remained steady between 2010/11 and 2014/15, averaging 88%. In , Wisconsin had one of the higher public high school 4-year adjusted cohort graduation rate (ACGR) at 88% as compared to 83% nationally. While Wisconsin has one of the highest public school graduation rates in the nation, rates of African American, Hispanic, and American Indian students are significantly lower than those of Asian and non-Hispanic White students.
Method: We use a cohort component method of progressing students enrolled in K-12 education institutions by grade forward over time applying an average ratio to estimate transfers in and out of the school system. This is a common demographic method for making projections. We take the method one step further and calculated the 12:Graduates ratios for the State, by WDAs, and by county.

17. Wisconsin High School Graduate History and Projections, 2011-2026
Left (observed), right (projected).
These are projections, and as such, they should reasonably represent future trends, if rates of progression through the grades to graduation and in- and out- migration to- from the state remain similar to what they have been over the last five years. They likely will NOT predict the exact number of future graduates. They will be more reliable in the nearer future than the more distant future. Projections for smaller units (counties, especially small ones; and some race/ethnic groups) should be considered to be less reliable than projections that include larger numbers of students and the state overall.

18. Wisconsin High School Public/Private Graduate Projections, 2017-2026
Private schools make up approximately 8% of the total number of graduates. Both proportion of public and private graduates is projected to remain similar over time.

19. High School Graduate Projections by Sex, 2017-2026
In 2006, 50.0% of Wisconsin’s high school graduates were male, and 50% were female. The proportion female/male is projected to remain similar over the next few years with a slight increase in the proportion female beginning in 2012 (between 50.2% and 50.5% female ).

20. Public High School Graduate Projections by Race/Ethnicity, 2017-2026
Because data are only available for Wisconsin’s public schools by race/ethnicity, projections shown in this report by race/ethnicity only include public high school graduates. This chart shows the non-Hispanic white graduates will decline (6.3%) over this ten year period.

21. Public High School Graduate Projections by Race/Ethnicity, 2017-2026
 Projections by race and Hispanic origin for Wisconsin’s public schools indicate that non-Hispanic White, American Indian, and Black graduates may decline over the next decade: non-Hispanic Whites (-6.3%), Blacks (-14%), and American Indians (-21%). In contrast, Asian/Pacific Islander (+21%), Hispanic (+35.5%), and two-or-more-race (+257%) graduates are anticipated to increase. NH white/black/AI graduates declining—may be due to multi-race categorical change.

22. Proportion of High School Graduates
Overall, the number of public school graduates who are persons of color is increasing across the state.
Between 2001 and 2006, the percent of Wisconsin graduates who were persons of color increased from 11% to 15%. Between 2012 and 2024, the percent of Wisconsin graduates who were persons of color from 20% to 30% (projections suggest that this percentage may increase to 18% in 2012 and to 22% in 2019) Largely due to declines in non-Hispanic White graduates, increases in Hispanic graduates and a change in race/ethnicity reporting.

23. Projected Change in Graduates by County 2015/16-2025/26
This map shows projected numerical change in graduates by county Counties projected to grow shown in blue and decline in red.
Green Lake, Kenosha, Ozaukee, Racine, Walworth, Washington, and Waukesha counties are expected to experience the most decline in the numbers of graduates, while Brown, Dane, and Milwaukee counties are expected to experience the largest increases.

24. Projected Change by Metropolitan, Micropolitan & Non-Metro Status
This chart is not part of the report but APL has been looking as various urban/rural issues and we decided to look at the high school projections as it relates to the U.S Census defined statistical areas.
Metropolitan statistical areas consist of the county or counties associated with at least one urbanized area of at least 50,000 population, plus adjacent counties having a high degree of social and economic integration with the core as measured through commuting ties.
Micropolitan statistical areas consist of the county or counties associated with at least one urban cluster of at least 10,000 but less than 50,000 population, plus adjacent counties having a high degree of social and economic integration with the core as measured through commuting ties.
Non-metro counties are outside the boundaries of metro areas and have no cities with 50,000 residents or more.

25. Projected Change by WDA, 2016-2026
This chart shows the projected change for all WDAs (2016 to 2026) Bay Area 10.0% Fox Valley 1.3% Milwaukee 6.3% North Central -0.5% Northwest 8.5% South Central 11.3% Southeast -10.1% Southwest 1.6% West Central 4.6% Western 3.2% WOW -4.8%
Additional projections by race/ethnicity will be included in the report that will be available by the end of the week. We do not have time today to look at each WDA but the website and report will provide both the total and by race/ethnicity projections for each of the WDAs.

26. Summary Points Graduates will remain steady in the near term.
Number of graduates are likely to be the same in as were in 2012.
Similar graduate trends for males and females.
Non-Hispanic White, Black, and American Indian graduates are expected to decline.
Hispanic, Asian, and Two or More graduates are expected to increase.
Graduate projections vary geographically.
Thank you.
For any questions or comments, please contact:
Sarah Kemp
Applied Population Laboratory
University of Wisconsin- Madison
308 Ag Hall
1450 Linden Dr.
Madison, WI 53706 26