1. Setting the scene: the geography of youth unemployment
Jonathan Wright
Youth unemployment is an area we have been looking at in both our
Cities team
Labour market disadvantage team
GEOGRAPHY MATTERS
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2. Context
There are nearly one million young people unemployed in the UK - the unemployment rate amongst year olds is the highest it has been since records began.
Youth unemployment has been rising since the early 2000s – even while the economy was growing.
For the individual, unemployment can have ‘scarring’ effects on their future employment prospects and wages, and social development.
For the UK, higher unemployment leads to lost economic productivity and higher welfare costs.
21.3% - 991,000 the highest youth unemployment rate since records began (even DURING RECESSION)
AND DESPITE INCREASED PARTICPATION IN EDCUATION
979,000 NEET year olds % (second quarter) – highest quarter 2 levels in the last 5 years
Why should we care?
Costs for individual
12-15% wage scar – Gregg and Tominey
And wider economy/society
Youth unemployment £10 million a day in lost productivity – Prince’s Trust
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3. A growing structural unemployment problem…
Young people tend to suffer in recessions, with the 2008–2009 recession no exception.
Young people are more sensitive to the business cycle.
Growing structural youth unemployment problem in the UK over past decade.
‘Youth unemployment gap’ has been growing.
‘Post 2004 deterioration’ – rising migration, minimum wage, falling demand for low-skilled workers etc.
Unemployment rates by age group,
We know that young people suffer in downturns – they are sensitive to the business cycle
Last in first out – lack the experience of older workers
Graduates vs non grads -
EDUCATION MATTERS Grad unemployment rate increased faster during the recession than non grads – but non–grad level still higher than grad
Worried about a structural unemployed group
Highest NEET levels in recent times (especially amongst older NEETs)
Growing gap between youth unemployment rate and working age rate
Why deterioration?
Rising Migration – only real effect in London
The minimum wage
structural change in the economy made it harder for younger people/ lowest skilled – BUMP DOWN
MOST LIKELY - Changing welfare to work programmes –New Deal for Young people – less of a focus on young people (introduced in 1998)
IN SHORT, NO EASILY IDENTIFIABLE CAUSE
Common risk factors make a young person more likely to be detached from the labour market:
Education: key determinant of labour market outcomes – Wolf review – less than 50% of students have both English and Maths GCSE (A*-C) by age 18
Training and experience deficits: UKCES survey of employers – experience as the main reason for under preparedness
Soft skills/ Employability skills: CBI surveys Personal problems and home life
Psychological and emotional problems
Local labour market
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4. There is a distinctive geography…
Change in Claimant Rate, March 08 – March 11
In general, highest unemployment rates are in areas characterised by weak economies and low skill profiles.
These places tend to be in the North of England and did relatively poorly during the recession with large increases in unemployment.
On the basis of their relatively low skills levels and high reliance on public sector employment, many of these places are unlikely to do well in the recovery…
…this suggests major problems for the future
Map of change in claimant count rate between March 2008 and March 2011
Familiar pattern – low skills, public sector dependence
Many places - limited employment opportunities
Limited private sector demand – and prevalence of ‘bad jobs’
ALSO
Geographical differences matter most for the least qualified
EMPLOYMENT RATES VARY MUCH MORE FOR THOSE WITH NO QUALIFICATIONS THAN FOR HIGHLY SKILLED PEOPLE
Source: Job Centre Plus administrative system
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5. The recession made things worse in NEET hotspots
The cities with the highest NEET rates amongst year olds in 2009–2010 were:
Doncaster
Grimsby
Sunderland
Huddersfield
Rochdale and Oldham
The recession exacerbated the problem in high NEET cities
Changes in NEET rates during the recession?
Used the Annual Population Survey to look at city level NEET rates for year olds
In these NEET hotpots young people are being squeezed in two ways:
Increase in Unemployment means fewer entry level jobs for those leaving education
Public sector cuts restricting youth services and capacity of government to help people enter the labour market
Source: Annual Population Survey, TWF Calculations. From 58 Cities.
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6. But… There are factors beyond the availability of work
Access to opportunities and aspirations are shaped by social networks and attachment to place (Green and White, 2007):
Strong reliance on family and friends:
May reduce ambition (‘we don’t do that around here’)
May curtail choices to familiar locations and jobs
Shaping outcomes for young people
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7. Social networks, mobility and prospects of young people
Attachment to place
Social networks, mobility and prospects of young people
Anne E Green and Richard J White
JRF 2007
This map is illustrative of detailed spatial knowledge and an accurate sense of scale of part of East Hull. Friends’ houses are marked prominently. Key local landmarks are shown also. There is an arrow to Hull city centre (identified as ‘town’), which is off the map, but West Hull does not feature at all (other maps of Hull showed similar local detail).
© The Work Foundation.

8. Dismantling of IAG architecture Apprenticeships
This map is cruder but more spatially extensive than many of the other mental maps of Hull. The college is shown in the city centre and West Hull appears on the map. The individual’s place of work is shown also. Sporting venues (i.e. the KC Stadium and Hull KR (i.e. Hull Kingston Rovers rugby league ground) are depicted. Comments on the map emphasise strong place attachment and ‘hostility’ to other areas.
Dismantling of IAG architecture
Apprenticeships
‘Get on the bus’?
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