1. Chapter 6 ~ Normal Probability Distributions

2. Chapter Goals
Learn about the normal, bell-shaped, or Gaussian distribution
How probabilities are found
How probabilities are represented
How normal distributions are used in the real world

3. 6.1 ~ Normal Probability Distributions
The normal probability distribution is the most important distribution in all of statistics
Many continuous random variables have normal or approximately normal distributions
Need to learn how to describe a normal probability distribution

4. Normal Probability Distribution
1. A continuous random variable
2. Description involves two functions:
a. A function to determine the ordinates of the graph picturing the distribution
b. A function to determine probabilities
3. Normal probability distribution function:
This is the function for the normal (bell-shaped) curve f x e ( ) = - 1 2 s p m
4. The probability that x lies in some interval is the area under the curve

5. The Normal Probability Distribution

6. Probabilities for a Normal Distribution
Illustration

7. Notes The definite integral is a calculus topic
We will use a table to find probabilities for normal distributions
We will learn how to compute probabilities for one special normal distribution: the standard normal distribution
Transform all other normal probability questions to this special distribution
Recall the empirical rule: the percentages that lie within certain intervals about the mean come from the normal probability distribution
We need to refine the empirical rule to be able to find the percentage that lies between any two numbers

8. Percentage, Proportion & Probability
Basically the same concepts
Percentage (30%) is usually used when talking about a proportion (3/10) of a population
Probability is usually used when talking about the chance that the next individual item will possess a certain property
Area is the graphic representation of all three when we draw a picture to illustrate the situation

9. 6.2 ~ The Standard Normal Distribution
There are infinitely many normal probability distributions
They are all related to the standard normal distribution
The standard normal distribution is the normal distribution of the standard variable z (the z-score)

10. Standard Normal Distribution
Properties:
The total area under the normal curve is equal to 1
The distribution is mounded and symmetric; it extends indefinitely in both directions, approaching but never touching the horizontal axis
The distribution has a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1
The mean divides the area in half, 0.50 on each side
Nearly all the area is between z = and z = 3.00
Notes:
Table 3, Appendix B lists the probabilities associated with the intervals from the mean (0) to a specific value of z
Probabilities of other intervals are found using the table entries, addition, subtraction, and the properties above

11. Table 3, Appendix B Entries
The table contains the area under the standard normal curve between 0 and a specific value of z

12. Example
Example: Find the area under the standard normal curve between z = 0 and z = 1.45 z
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
1.4
0.4265
A portion of Table 3: .

13. Example
Example: Find the area under the normal curve to the right of z = 1.45; P(z > 1.45)
Area asked for

14. Example
Example: Find the area to the left of z = 1.45; P(z < 1.45)

15. Notes
The addition and subtraction used in the previous examples are correct because the “areas” represent mutually exclusive events
The symmetry of the normal distribution is a key factor in determining probabilities associated with values below (to the left of) the mean. For example: the area between the mean and z = is exactly the same as the area between the mean and z =
When finding normal distribution probabilities, a sketch is always helpful

16. Example Example: Find the area between the mean (z = 0) and z = -1.26
Area asked for
Area from table
0.3962

17. Example Example: Find the area to the left of -0.98; P(z < -0.98)
Area asked for
Area from table
0.3365 P z ( 0. ) .
< - = 98
5000
3365
1635

18. Example Example: Find the area between z = -2.30 and z = 1.80 P z ( .) -
< = + 2 30 1 80
4893
4641
9534

19. Example Example: Find the area between z = -1.40 and z = -0.50
Area asked for
-1.40
- 0.50
0.50
1.40 P z ( . 0. ) -
< = 1 40 50
50)
4192
1915
2277

20. Normal Distribution Note
The normal distribution table may also be used to determine a z-score if we are given the area (working backwards)
Example: What is the z-score associated with the 85th percentile?
implies

21. Solution
In Table 3 Appendix B, find the “area” entry that is closest to : . .
The area entry closest to is
The z-score that corresponds to this area is 1.04
The 85th percentile in a standard normal distribution is 1.04

22. Example
Example: What z-scores bound the middle 90% of a standard normal distribution?
implies

23. Solution
The 90% is split into two equal parts by the mean. Find the area in Table 3 closest to : .
is exactly half way between and
Therefore, z = 1.645
z = and z = bound the middle 90% of a normal distribution

24. 6.3 ~ Applications of Normal Distributions
Apply the techniques learned for the z distribution to all normal distributions
Start with a probability question in terms of x-values
Convert, or transform, the question into an equivalent probability statement involving z-values

25. Standardization
Suppose x is a normal random variable with mean m and standard deviation s
The random variable has a standard normal distribution

26. Example
Example: A bottling machine is adjusted to fill bottles with a mean of 32.0 oz of soda and standard deviation of Assume the amount of fill is normally distributed and a bottle is selected at random:
1) Find the probability the bottle contains between oz and oz
2) Find the probability the bottle contains more than oz
When x z = -
32.00
32.0
0.00 ;
0.02 m s
Solutions: 1)
When x z = - 32
025
32.025
32.0 1 25 . ;
0.02 m s

27. Solution Continued Area asked for P x z ( . ) 0. 32.0 32 025 02 1 251 25
3944
< = - æ è ç ö ø ÷

28. Example, Part 2 P x z ( . ) > = - æ è ç ö ø ÷ + 31 97 32.0 0. 02 12)
32.0 - 1 50 . P x z ( . )
> = - æ è ç ö ø ÷ + 31 97
32.0 0. 02 1
50)
5000
4332
9332

29. Notes
The normal table may be used to answer many kinds of questions involving a normal distribution
Often we need to find a cutoff point: a value of x such that there is a certain probability in a specified interval defined by x
Example: The waiting time x at a certain bank is approximately normally distributed with a mean of 3.7 minutes and a standard deviation of 1.4 minutes. The bank would like to claim that 95% of all customers are waited on by a teller within c minutes. Find the value of c that makes this statement true.

30. Solution P x c z ( ) 0. . = - æ è ç ö ø ÷ 95 3 7 1 4

31. Example
Example: A radar unit is used to measure the speed of automobiles on an expressway during rush-hour traffic. The speeds of individual automobiles are normally distributed with a mean of 62 mph. Find the standard deviation of all speeds if 3% of the automobiles travel faster than 72 mph.

32. Solution P x ( ) . > = 72 03 P z ( . ) > = 1 88 03 - 72 62 s03 P z ( . )
> = 1 88 03 - 72 62 s
1.88 = x - m ; z = s 1 . 88 s = 10 / . = 10 1 88 5 32 s

33. Notation
If x is a normal random variable with mean m and standard deviation s, this is often denoted: x ~ N(m, s)
Example: Suppose x is a normal random variable with m = 35 and s = 6. A convenient notation to identify this random variable is: x ~ N(35, 6).

34. 6.4 ~ Notation z-score used throughout statistics in a variety of ways
Need convenient notation to indicate the area under the standard normal distribution
z(a) is the algebraic name, for the z-score (point on the z axis) such that there is a of the area (probability) to the right of z(a)

35. Illustrations
z(0.10) represents the value of z such that the area to the right under the standard normal curve is 0.10
z(0.10)
z(0.80) represents the value of z such that the area to the right under the standard normal curve is 0.80
z(0.80)

36. Example z(0.10) = 1.28 Example: Find the numerical value of z(0.10):
0.10 (area information from notation)
Table shows this area (0.4000)
z(0.10)
Use Table 3: look for an area as close as possible to
z(0.10) = 1.28

37. Example z(0.80) = -0.84 Example: Find the numerical value of z(0.80):
Look for ; remember that z must be negative
z(0.80)
Use Table 3: look for an area as close as possible to
z(0.80) = -0.84

38. Notes
The values of z that will be used regularly come from one of the following situations:
1. The z-score such that there is a specified area in one tail of the normal distribution
2. The z-scores that bound a specified middle proportion of the normal distribution

39. Example Example: Find the numerical value of z(0.99): 0.01 z(0.99)
Because of the symmetrical nature of the normal distribution, z(0.99) = -z(0.01)
Using Table 3: z(0.99) = -2.33

40. Example
Example: Find the z-scores that bound the middle 0.99 of the normal distribution:
z(0.995)
-z(0.005)
z(0.005)
Use Table 3:
z(0.005) = and z(0.995) = -z(0.005) =

41. 6.5 ~ Normal Approximation of the Binomial
Recall: the binomial distribution is a probability distribution of the discrete random variable x, the number of successes observed in n repeated independent trials
Binomial probabilities can be reasonably estimated by using the normal probability distribution

42. Background & Histogram
Background: Consider the distribution of the binomial variable x when n = 20 and p = 0.5
Histogram: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
The histogram may be approximated by a normal curve

43. Notes
The normal curve has mean and standard deviation from the binomial distribution:
Can approximate the area of the rectangles with the area under the normal curve
The approximation becomes more accurate as n becomes larger

44. Two Problems
1. As p moves away from 0.5, the binomial distribution is less symmetric, less normal-looking
Solution: The normal distribution provides a reasonable approximation to a binomial probability distribution whenever the values of np and n(1 - p) both equal or exceed 5
2. The binomial distribution is discrete, and the normal distribution is continuous
Solution: Use the continuity correction factor. Add or subtract 0.5 to account for the width of each rectangle.

45. Example
Example: Research indicates 40% of all students entering a certain university withdraw from a course during their first year. What is the probability that fewer than 650 of this year’s entering class of 1800 will withdraw from a class?
Let x be the number of students that withdraw from a course during their first year
x has a binomial distribution: n = 1800, p = 0.4
The probability function is given by:

46. Solution
Use the normal approximation method: