1. March 2, 2014
One sector, one target, one message The pathway towards 100 EUR / MWh in 2023

2. Before I start … … our key messages:
40% cost reduction can only be achieved when all stakeholders act together
Constructing 3.45 GW offshore wind in less than a decade demands a master plan
TenneT needs to be assigned as the grid developer and owner
Use round 2 permits as a steppingstone towards a centralized far shore roll-out

3. The Dutch offshore wind market opens up new opportunities for all
Energy Agreement (for sustainable growth) signed on September 6, 2013:
A 14% renewable energy share in 2020 (today 4%)
A 16% renewable energy share in 2023
1,5% energy savings per year (or 100 PJ savings in 2020)
new jobs
Wind will be key to reach above and the targets are:
Onshore: 6 GW to be operational in 2020
Offshore: 4.45 GW to be operational in 2023
Today's installed total capacity:
Onshore: 2.5 GW
Offshore: 1 GW (installed and under construction)
That is: we need to install another 3.5 GW onshore and 3.45 GW offshore

4. Dutch offshore wind market: Status and outlook based on (projected) year of commercial operation
Gemini
150 x SWT | 2 x 300 MW
Energy Agreement
September 6, 2013
OWEZ (2006)
36 x Vestas V-90 | 108 MW
Westermeerwind
48 x SWT | 144 MW
PAWP (2008)
60 x Vestas V-80 | 120 MW
Luchterduinen
43 x Vestas V-112 | 129 MW
450
144
108
120
129

5. Electricity from wind is still seen as expensive
BUT this will only happen if the Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) will reduce from today’s level to 100 EUR / MWh in 2023
Electricity from wind is still seen as expensive
AND …. subsidies won’t last forever

6. Lifecycle electricity output
We take our share... BUT we need your contribution as well to reach the target!
Primary target: 40% by 2020*)
Offshore wind industry target: -40% in less than a decade
CAPEX
OPEX
Optimize resource productivity (OPEX) +
160
Direct drive (CAPEX)
Larger rotor blades (lifecycle electricity output)
LCOE
€ / MWh =
130
Lifecycle electricity output
100
2010
2020 *)

7. However, providing a “contribution” is not sufficient: We have to act together!
One sector, one target!

8. Or to put it differently:
All for one & one for all

9. AND we do need a master plan to avoid the Round 2 situation:

10. Change mindset: from project-2-project to portfolio thinking
Focus is key to construct and operate the 3.45 GW in the most cost-efficient way
Change mindset: from project-2-project
to portfolio thinking
Start with the desired end situation in
2023
Assign TenneT as grid developer and owner
Use round 2 permits as a steppingstone towards a centralized far shore roll-out
Select “IJmuiden ver” area as the main focus area
Nearshore area is a nice-2-have for future
projects
Max 1 GW
Maximum learnings
Sharing grid connection cost
O&M synergies
No EIA performed
Public resistance
Limited space
Conflict with Oil & Gas industry
Max 1-1,5 GW
Located North East of Belgian projects

11. Assign TenneT as grid developer and owner: key arguments
10-15% LCOE reduction:
Cost of capital
CAPEX
OPEX
Speed
International alignment
Cross-project benefits
Enabling exploring
synergies between
turbines and grid
Lessons learned from
6.2 GW
Financing by TSO:
-33%
Depreciation period: 40 years
Standardization:
-10%
Centralized O&M:
-10%
Cable redundancy:
= 4% more yield
Purchasing power:
-10%
Less dune crossings:
-10%

12. Preliminary business case review shows that the “Centralized Far Shore” scenario results in the required 40% cost reduction
Name
Base case
Decentralized
“cf. round 2”
Scenario A
Centralized
Offshore
Scenario B
Far Shore
CAPEX
100 84 90
OPEX 80
AEP
112
120
LCOE 62 59
IJmuiden Ver
Island for O&M and substation
Industrialization and standardization of cables
Depreciation electrical infrastructure in 40 years
Redundancy and standardization of cables
Higher wind speed

13. One sector, one target, and ...
One message

14. Thank you very much for your attention!
Thank you for your attention!
Questions?