1. NSO8055 Okeanograafiline prognoos
Jüri Elken
Okeanograafiliste mudelite prognoosi osavus
Üldpõhimõtted
MERSEA/MyOcean meetrika
Taylor’i diagramm

3. MyOcean eelkäija,
The MERSEA ocean monitoring system is envisioned as an operational network that systematically acquires data (earth observation from satellites, in situ from ocean observing networks, and surface forcing fields from numerical weather prediction agencies). These data from diverse sources are combined and merged with numerical ocean circulation models (i.e. assimilated) to produce best estimates of the actual state of the ocean (nowcasts) and forecasts. That information is then disseminated to enable various users to develop specific applications. The project itself has identified areas of Special Focus Experiments on seasonal weather forecasting, and on ecosystem modelling in regional and shelf seas. Specific applications on marine safety concern improved wave forecasts, offshore operations, ship routing, and oil spill drift.
The project work plan is structured on a set of thirteen work packages organized in three main modules :
observing systems and provision of data ;
the design, development, implementation, integration, evaluation and validation of a co-ordinated set of monitoring and forecast systems covering the global ocean and the oceans and seas surrounding Europe ;
the development and demonstration of information products, applications and services, in partnership with intermediate users.

4. MERSEA/MyOcean meetrika (1)
Class 1 metrics
“Class1 diagnostics gathers 2-D and 3-D fields … interpolated on the GODAE grids, and averaged on daily means … Class 1 metrics are designed for “consistency assessment” and comparison to climatologies or ocean pattern described in the literature.”

5. MERSEA/MyOcean meetrika (2)
Class 2 metrics
“Class2 diagnostics gathers some of the model variables … along chosen section tracks or at moorings locations”

6. MERSEA/MyOcean meetrika (3)
Class 3 metrics
Class 3 metrics are similar to class2, but are derived quantities, such as fluxes and overturning circulations. They require inline calculation.

7. MERSEA/MyOcean meetrika (4)
Class 4 metrics
Class 4 metrics provide statistical comparisons of model against data. These will be compiled both for the analysis and forecast steps, to give an objective indication of the accuracy of the system at all lead times. The focus will be on SST and Sea level, although there will be some assessment of profile temperature and salinity, and currents for which the observational data is more limited. For the call 4 metrics we will compute at least the statistics detailed in appendix B.

8. Statistical quantities used for Class 2&4 metrics
The mandatory analysis is restricted to simple statistical quantities. Focus is on those quantities which are necessary to summarise the output of the statistical analysis in Taylor diagrams:
Standard deviation
Correlation coefficient
Rms difference
This analysis will be extended by the following quantities in order to separate the total difference between model and observations into components:
Mean error/Bias
Standard deviation of mean error

12. Taylori diagrammi käitumine võnkumiste muutmise korral

13. Näide erinevatest X-Y diagrammidest
ja neile vastavatest korrelatsioonidest
Anscombe's quartet
4 identse statistikaga andmehulka

15. Üks osavusindeks?