1. A Little Bit about “CLIMATE CHANGE”
Dr. Ron Lembke

2. A Scary "Recent" Movie

3. This is Not New
Frank Capra, 1958

4. Sun sends Infrared energy to the Earth

5. CO2 collects in Troposphere
Ozone O3 layer – absorbs ultraviolet radiation from sun

6. Van Allen Radiation Belts
Magnetic field of Earth creates radiation belts.
These protect us from particles flying at Earth via solar wind (stream of ionized gases at 400 km/sec)

7. The Evidence

8. Atmospheric CO2 ppm Mauna Loa Observatory
24% increase in 50 years
Data: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Graph: Ron Lembke, 1/12/2010

13. Solar Activity?

15. The Theory

16. CO2 equivalents, aka CO2e
How does the global warming potential (GWP) of a gas compare to CO2
CO2, by definition has GWP = 1.0
IPCC AR4 p. 212
SF6 - 8,000 tons produced per year
6,000 in electrical industry, inert gas for casting magnesium
Inert filling for insulated glazing windows
0.2% of GHG emissions
Gas
Lifetime (years)
GWP 20yrs
GWP 100 yrs
GWP 500 yrs
Methane 12 72 25
7.6
Nitrous Oxide
114
289
298
153
HFC-23
270
12000
14,800
12,200
HFC-134a 14
3,830
1,430
435
Sulfur hexafluoride
3,200
16,300
22,800
32,600

17. IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
United Nations Environmental Programme
World Meteorological Organization
1988 mission: assess risks and impacts of climate change
Comprehensive, open, objective, transparent, scientific understanding of human-caused climate change
Assessment reports: 1990, 92, 95, 01, 07
Over 90% of change in temps caused by humans
2500 scientific expert reviewers, 800 authors

18. How Much Agreement? Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences
1,372 Climate Researchers’ publication and citation data
97-98% most actively publishing support tenets of ACC outlined by IPCC
scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers

19. The Earth’s Rotation CO2 Milankovich Cycles (pp 117-8):
280 ppm for human history
Last 250 years up to 384 ppm – where we are now
Milankovich Cycles (pp 117-8):
Earth’s orbit not circular, 100,000 year cycle
Tilted axis shifts: 40,000 year cycle
Plane of orbit relative to sun: 21,000 year cycle
Seems unlikely

20. So What’s Expected to Happen?

21. Climate Models We’re at 384 ppm 450 ppm would be 2°C increase
550 ppm would lead to 3° C increase
Used to be target
Pests not killed by freezes
Ice sheets melting faster than predicted
Oceans more acidic than thought
China’s growing faster than expected
350? Really hard

22. Global Weirding Higher temperatures increase evaporation
Atlanta
Water shortage? Why more than used to?
Montana:
Elk season had to be moved
No trout in the streams
Snowcaps in August gone
Higher temperatures increase evaporation
Soils drying out
More water in the atmosphere, has to come down
Means when it rains, it pours, more huge downpours
Changing wind patterns
Search “cities hardest hit by climate change evaporation” Nevada came up first:

23. Cedar River broke record by 6 feet

25. Public Opinion
In the US, it’s a political issue, so there must be two sides?

26. One Politician
“If ninety-eight doctors say my son is ill and needs medication, and two say, “No, he doesn’t, he is fine,” I will go with the ninety- eight. It’s common sense – same with global warming. We go with the majority, the large majority.”
Arnold Schwartzeneger
Quoted in Thomas Friedman, (2009)“Hot Flat, and Crowded,” pp

27. Rupert Murdoch
Climate change poses clear, catastrophic threats. We may not agree on the extent, but we certainly can't afford the risk of inaction.
We must transform the way we use energy, and of course not only because of climate change...
When I look around the world today, I see continued dependence on oil from vulnerable regions... and oil money going to leaders of countries hostile to us. Then there's accelerating development in China, India and other developing economies that are reliant on fossil fuels.

28. Rupert Murdoch News Corp. owns Fox.
“Climate change poses clear, catastrophic threats” and that “We may not agree on the extent, but we certainly can’t afford the risk of inaction.”
Rupert Murdoch, May 9, 2007
James Murdoch, heir apparent
“Thanks to friendships with Al Gore and Bill Clinton, he has developed deep green instincts,”
London Telegraph
Wife Kathryn Hufschmid works for Clinton Climate Initiative

29. Who said it? Yes, Glenn Beck
Yes, I think the globe has warmed a bit! Approximately 0.74 degree Celsius (+/ degree) in the past 100 years.
Yes, I think that man might be responsible for some part of that warming, although I’m not 100 percent convinced of how much
The cost of generating power from wind has dropped by 60 percent since 1990, and power from the first solar cells in satellites is now cheaper than when it was introduced.
These technologies will be adopted by the world when - and only when-- they make economic sense, not when we have to depend on countries like Russia and China to be virtuous. Sure, our government can help in the form of tax breaks and incentives, but capitalism is already well on its way to solving this problem itself.

31. 83% of Americans say world is warming
71% of those think it’s caused partly or mostly by humans
75% said it was warming last year
Skeptics more certain they’re right
From 35% to 53%
15% of voters say it is their primary concern

32. A Hoax
Global warming, as a man-made and highly threatening phenomenon, is at best an exaggeration, at worst an utter “hoax.”
Over half of House Republicans
Three-quarters of Senate Republicans
“Hoax”
James Inhofe, ranking Republican on Senate Environment and Public Works Committee
Source: NYT “Fact-Free Science,” Judith Warner, 1/25/11

33. How will anything happen?