1. Allocation of Unidentified Gas Statement - Update
19th July 2012

2. Outline Update on progress to briefly cover Consultation responses
Consumptions
Theft
Sites with AQ=1
WCF
Lost/new sites
Change in Seasonal Normal
Consultation responses
Plan going forward

3. Consumption Analysis Data received 11th June
Quality issues identified and new set received July 4th
Further validation ongoing
Method to calculate consumptions has been developed
Initial pass will estimate total consumption based on meter reads only
Second pass will use AQs for missing meter reads
Will need to account for new site AQ bias, new & lost sites in general
Additional data requested to assist validation and scaling of the sample to the population
Analysis is ongoing

4. Theft Consumption data associated with theft received
Has similar quality issues to the larger set and an update has been requested
Note the theft consumptions cover all LDZs, whereas the consumption data we have for the consumption analysis is EA LDZ only.
An updated set of theft records including detections up to end June 2012 expected shortly
We have developed a method to calculate unmetered and metered consumption
Uses same method of calculating metered consumption as for the consumption data
Applies a seasonal normal adjustment to theft before aggregating
Theft over multiple years is split by ALP
Analysis is ongoing

5. Theft continued Potential industry influence on theft split
It is possible for industry participants to skew the theft split over time
We are therefore looking at ways of preventing this
Nothing further to report at this time.
Carried out further investigations regarding the large site theft detection noted in previous meeting
Informed by Xoserve that this is an unregistered site and is being back billed by the relevant GT
Our understanding of how this is treated in code is that it would form part of shrinkage not downstream theft
We have requested further details and also requested Xoserve highlight any other thefts associated with unregistered sites
No final decision at this time

6. Provision of MPRs
To date data involving MPRs has been provided with anonymised MPRs
These are not necessarily consistent across data sets
Have recommended that they are and this is something Xoserve are working on
This has resulted in a few false starts with data sets resulting in delays and wasted effort
Tracking of specific data issues/anomalies across data sets is difficult
It is the AUGEs responsibility to identify the data it needs and the AUGEs responsibility to protect confidentiality
The AUGE seeks approval from the UNCC or whoever is responsible to the provision of real MPR data associated with the data sets in order to resolve these issues going forward

7. Sites with AQ=1, New/lost sites, WCF, seasonal normal change
Analysis of these items are complete
Internal review ongoing before presenting/publishing to industry
Some of these items are relevant if the previous AQ bias methodology goes forward, but are not if the consumption method goes forward

8. Consultation responses
Feedback received during consultation process published on JoT website
Our responses published last week
Some issues are specific to the AQ bias methodology and some to the Consumption methodology (and some to both)
At this time our priority is the consumption analysis and revisit of the theft split
Depending on the outcome of the consumption analysis we will then revisit as appropriate and we may raise further clarifications at that time

9. Plan going forward
At this time a full 2nd draft AUGS will not be ready for consultation by the end of July
The next publication should at least have the outcome of the consumption and theft analyses as these are the most significant areas
Proposed plan is to publish report covering just consumption/theft analysis for consultation
Outcome of this has an impact on the methodology and AUGS going forward
Either AQ Algorithm Bias or Consumption methodology to proceed
publish in full 2nd draft AUGS for consultation
We are also seeking a timescale from Xoserve for provision of the full consumption data set as this will be a key dependency if the consumption method is successful

10. Proposed revised plan Key Date Description 13th August
Publish report on Consumption/Theft analysis for consultation (not a full AUGS)
13th August - 10th September
Consultation period with industry meeting in early September to present/discuss.
8th October
Publish 2nd draft AUGS for consultation (full draft)
8th October – 5th November
Consultation period with industry meeting in late October
3rd December
Publication of 3rd draft AUGS for UNCC approval
21st December
Final AUG Table added
AUGE seeking UNCC approval for above approach
Timescales post 10th September subject to change depending on outcome of consultation process and methodology going forward

11. Thank you for your attention