1. Brexit: Opportunities and challenges for business
Conor Lambe, Danske Bank Economist
@ConorLambe

2. Outline 1 The challenges that Brexit will bring 2
Opportunities that exist in the short-term 3
Longer-term opportunities for business 4
Brexit and Northern Ireland

3. The challenges that Brexit will bring

4. The challenges that Brexit will bring
The Brexit negotiations will be extremely complex and external events could have an impact
Source: Danske Bank analysis, The Financial Times

5. The challenges that Brexit will bring
The Government have confirmed that the UK will leave the EU Single Market, it’s largest export partner
Source: Danske Bank analysis, ONS

6. Lack of experience of trade negotiations
The challenges that Brexit will bring
Practically, there are a number of things that will prove challenging during the negotiations
Exit bill, trade, rights of nationals, budgetary contributions etc.
Lot to negotiate
Lack of experience of trade negotiations
Dept. of International Trade is relatively new in the UK
Practical challenges
How can the Gov’t engage all the parties that should have a role?
Many stakeholders
It is expected that a deal would need to be in place by Oct 2018
Not a lot of time

7. Opportunities that exist in the short-term

8. Opportunities that exist in the short-term
The depreciation of the pound has made UK exports more competitive in international markets
Source: ONS

9. Opportunities that exist in the short-term
Professional services firms have outperformed their peer group and the whole services industry since the referendum
Source: ONS

10. Longer-term opportunities for business

11. Longer-term opportunities for business
The Government hopes to agree a number of new trade deals once the UK leaves the European Union
Source: Danske Bank analysis, ONS

12. Longer-term opportunities for business
Leaving the EU could give the UK more control over regulations that impact UK-based businesses
£4.7bn a year
The UK Renewable Energy Strategy
£2.1bn a year
£4.6bn a year
The Temporary Agency Workers Directive
The CRD IV package
Top 5 costliest EU-derived regulations in the UK
The EU Climate and Energy Package
The Working Time Directive
£3.4bn a year
£4.2bn a year
Source: Open Europe
Note: Figures are in 2014 prices

13. Longer-term opportunities for business
The Government are likely to make a smaller financial contribution to the EU post Brexit
Source: HM Treasury

14. Brexit and Northern Ireland

15. Prospects for the Northern Ireland economy
In the short-term, private services are forecast to remain as the primary contributors to NI’s economic growth in 2017…
Sector contributions to GVA growth in 2017
Source: Danske Bank Quarterly Sectoral Forecasts 2017 Q1

16. Brexit and longer-term priorities for the NI economy
…but issues around trade and the border with RoI are the main impact areas when looking longer-term
55% of Northern Ireland’s total goods exports went to the EU in 2016
Relevance for Northern Ireland
31% of Northern Ireland’s total goods exports went to the Republic of Ireland last year
Businesses and policymakers in Northern Ireland must stand ready to grasp the opportunities that will come from Westminster’s renewed focus on international trade 1 2 3
Access to EU markets
Border with RoI
Expand into global markets

17. Thank you Conor Lambe Economist at Danske Bank
LinkedIn: Conor Lambe
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