1. Using Past Weather Events to Predict Future Behavior
9/15/2018 8:54 AM
Using Past Weather Events to Predict Future Behavior
Mark A. Fox
WCM
(Weird Chronological Manipulator)
NWS Dallas/Fort Worth
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2. “Since when can weathermen predict the weather, let alone the future” – Marty McFly
Have tons of past data
Get everyone together in Integrated Warning Teams
Use data to play “What if” scenarios. Data is real, time is not

3. Predict Future Behavior? More Like Evaluate Behaviors
Initial reactions for outlooks & forecast information
Complacency
Readiness and adaptation
Escalation Triggers
Able to do this when you know the outcome, but they don’t

4. If you’re going to build a time machine, you might as well do it in style
GIS to the rescue
SPC shape files / kmz / GR software…etc.
Realistic looking “now”
Used at North Texas IWT in Spring 2015

5. Methodology Determine what you want to explore
Facilitate discussion that stays on topic
Follow up with what resonates with the group.

6. Methodology
TSTMS
Marginal
Slight

7. Methodology What kind of day do you expect in North Texas ?
Asked Broadcasters – Anything additional planned for the day?
Asked Emergency Management – Anything additional planned for the day?
Asked Both: What would make you change your plans?

8. North Texas IWT Responses
“Scattered Showers”
“Might have a thunderstorm, probably won’t”
“Normal Day”
“Not a big deal”
“Routine”
“Some hail. No tornadoes”
“Will any of them have lightning?”

9. Our Response
When the atmosphere hits 3.21 kiloJoules of CAPE, you’re going to see some serious…

10. 4:40 PM

12. This Case? - May 5, 1995

13. This Case? - May 5, 1995 Supercell Thunderstorm & Squall Line Merge
Occurred during an outdoor festival
$2 Billion estimated damage
$ 1.1 Billion insured losses
16 Flash Flood Fatalities – Dallas County

14. What Did We Learn ? Every day is routine, until it is not
Reports, especially video, is critical to relaying the urgency of the situation
No change in behavior until 2.75” hail mentioned
If this happened today, our IWT said they would be looking first (sometimes solely) at NWSChat for additional information and impacts
Our IWT was slow to identify the transition to flash flooding
NWS Staff meeting discussed the need to remain proactive in the identification of threats*

15. How Are We Moving Forward?
Pre-event information focused on confidence and possible impacts
IWT partner feedback
Confidence >> What
Show relative risks
Go beyond the colors
Dials and arrows resonated with the IWT when communicating pre event information…now a routine inclusion

16. How Are We Moving Forward?
Asking for brutally frank feedback after each event, from the members of the IWT
Adjust, based on feedback
Seek reports, and share everything in NWSChat.
Just like the movie

17. Use The Past … Mark Fox WCM – WFO FWD Mark.fox@noaa.gov