1. Climate Change and Biodiversity
Dr. Jerry Skinner
KCeeI, July 23, 2008

2. Golden Toad Bufo periglenes
Once abundant in the cloud-shrouded rainforests of Monteverde in Costa Rica, no one has seen one since 1989.

3. Harlequin Frogs
About two-thirds of Central and South America's 110 harlequin frog species are believed to have vanished during the 1980s and 1990s. The primary culprit is the pathogenic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which has been favored by global warming.

5. Ivory Gull
                                                          

7. Birds and Climate Change
More is known about them
not too many ‘fish-watchers’
‘canaries in the coal mine’
9787 known living species
21% (2,055 species) are extinction prone (for a variety of reasons)
habitat destruction/fragmentation impacts ~85%
climate change is quickly emerging as a leading factor

8. growing season-increased 10 to14 days in temperate latitudes in past 19 years
phenology
primary production
species distributions and diversity

9. Impacts on Individual Birds
are homoeothermic (warm-blooded)
have a energy budgets
must thermoregulate
Q-10 effect

10. Case Study: American Robin, Turdus migratorius

11. Why are they distributed as they are?
What determines northern/southern limits?
What determines migration routes?

13. Nesting
where to build
how many eggs
how many clutches/yr

14. Ability to find food What do they eat?

15. Being out of ecological synchrony
tied to seasonal events: flowering, seeds, insect emergence, etc.
phenology:
egg laying-UK-20 of 65 species studied were laying 8.8 days earlier
migration timing-Canada-1st spring sightings-63 yr data set, 25 of 96 species had altered arrival dates significantly, most (but not all) arriving earlier
some individuals are no longer migrating-nonmigratory populations?

16. Being out of ecological synchrony
being out of step with food supplies may mean the early bird doesn’t get the worm
species may be driven by different cues:
birds by photoperiod
insects by temperature
examples
Spain: leaf out 6 days earlier, flower 6 days earlier than 1952; fruiting 9 days earlier; but spring migrants arriving 15 days later.
France: Blue Tits almost double normal metabolic rate while foraging. They must search harder for food because breeding cycle is behind the peak of insects-food is scarcer.
Long-distance migrants from neotropics can’t predict the onset of favorable conditions on breeding grounds 1000s of miles to the north

17. Can’t they just move?
many species rich areas are already protected, e.g., national parks, nature preserves, etc.
if vegetation changes, habitats are lost

18. Case Study: Prairie Potholes
provide breeding habitat for 50-80% of N.A. ducks, the most productive area in the world—a ‘duck factory’
model based on
doubling of CO2 by 2060
2.5 ºC increase in temperature
no increase in precipitation
results
number of ponds decreases by 67%
duck numbers reduced by 72%

20. What makes a species extinction prone?
specialists (vs generalist)
habitat
food
nesting requirements
restricted range
important to humans
predators, diseases, etc.

22. Will ‘southern’ species replace those that are being squeezed north?

23. Ecological communities will be reshuffled
As species move they may have to deal with changes in
prey
predators
competitors
parasites
diseases
habitats that are less than ideal

24. Case Study: Hawaiian Honeycreepers

25. Honeycreepers
once 29 species, now 19 due to habitat loss, disease, predators
avian malaria, one agent, pushed their distribution to altitudes where the mosquito was rare
2ºC increase will reduce habitat by 50%, 96%, and 100% in their three established refuges

27. Reverberations through the food chain

32. Two hundred years from now, people will not remember Iraq.
They will laugh at our distress over $4.00 gas prices.
What they will remember is that
this President
this Congress
this Generation…
…was in charge when something needed to be done.
when something could have been done.
Will they be proud of us?