1. Participation Forecast
May 9, 2006
The CB started doing enrollment forecasts in This year we decided to add a success forecast to the process.
THECB 5/2006

2. Participation Forecast
Designed to be conservative
Based on five years of historical enrollment by age, race/ethnicity, and county
Uses latest available population projections by age, race/ethnicity, and county
Considers non-resident participation factors
Solicit institutional input on local conditions
The participation forecast methodology has remained fairly constant.
We look at 5 years of historical participation by age/ethnicity/county for each institution and apply those ratios to the projected population of a county by age and race/ethnicity.
After that we apply a non-resident factor to take into account the out-of-state and foreign students.
At that point we send the draft forecast out to each institution and solicit input on any local conditions (new campuses coming online, new dorms opening up, etc.)
We take into account what the institutions tell us and make adjustments to the draft and that becomes the forecast.
THECB 5/2006

3. Public Higher Education Participation
The projections for this year follow a trend that started in the early 90’s with more students enrolling the community and technical colleges than at the universities.
THECB 5/2006

4. Caveats
Forecast is based on historical in-state participation patterns by county. If institutions recruit students from different areas, rates will change
The economy affects participation. It usually expands during times of increasing unemployment.
THECB 5/2006

5. Timing Issues 5 Years of History Current Year 1 Year After
2 Years After
5 Years Out
10 Years Out
Even
Biennial report in December of even years before Legislature meets in January
“Current year” refers to that even-numbered year with focus on fall semester
Forecast uses as historical data five prior years
Projections are for the two years following “current year” and five and 10 years out
In Texas, Fall enrollments are due November 1, but the certification and verification of the data are often not completed in time to be used in report. If certified Fall semester current year enrollments are available, they are used; if not preliminary institutional projections used.
THECB 5/2006

6. Enrollment Forecast Development Process
Institutions’
5 prior years’
historical
enrollment by
county/age/
ethnicity
Current
preliminary
in-state
institution
Compare
3-forecasts with
current preliminary
and select “best
fit” rate for each
Historical ratio
between in-state
and non-resident
Adjustment
for institutions’
policies and
local conditions
3-in-state
enrollment rates
by institution/
Adjust in-state
Forecast by
Institution for
prior, current, next 2
yrs, +5 and +10 yrs
Use “best fit” rate &
pop to forecast
prior, current, next
2 yrs, + 5 & + 10 yrs
in-state enrollment by
Draft total
enrollment
forecast by
Enrollment
Forecast
Texas pop. By
county/age/ethnicity
5 prior yrs
current yr
next 2 yrs,
+ 5 yrs, +10 yrs
forecasts for
current yr for each
THECB 5/2006

7. Three Alternatives Participation Rates
Percentage county/age/racial enrollment rate for prior year
Two regression racial/ethnic rate
Each rate has attendance rates for 254 counties by institution by six age groups (15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40+) and four racial/ethnic groups (White, African-American, Hispanic, Other)
THECB 5/2006

8. In-State Participation by Age and Race/Ethnicity-Universities
2002
Age
Age 20-24
Age 25-29
Age 30-34
Age 35-39
Age 40-Up
All Ages
White
92,430
76,569
27,803
18,175
13,016
29,825
257,893
African American
12,561
15,062
8,242
6,427
4,657
7,469
54,429
Hispanic
44,219
50,384
21,046
12,131
7,652
11,401
146,870
Other
8,037
8,523
3,369
2,165
1,483
2,476
26,093
Total
157,247
150,538
60,460
38,898
26,808
51,171
485,285
2003
94,208
80,227
29,298
19,151
12,931
29,424
265,297
13,293
16,067
8,957
7,106
4,933
7,928
58,291
49,365
54,994
22,384
13,371
8,133
12,230
160,519
8,322
10,191
3,834
2,572
1,715
2,740
29,399
165,188
161,479
64,473
42,200
27,712
52,322
513,506
Example of how statewide age and ethnicity/race data is produced for each year and sector. It is produced for each county and institution.
THECB 5/2006

9. Percentage Rate
Total number of students in each age and racial/ethnic group from each county attending each institution
Divided by total population by age and racial/ethnic group in county
Gives each county’s age and race/ ethnicity attendance rate per institution
THECB 5/2006

10. Regression Racial/Ethnic Rates
Used to develop two straight line arithmetic trend participation rates
The previous five-year trend line extended to the following year
The previous five-year trend line extended to two years hence
THECB 5/2006

11. Yc= a + bx
Yc = predicted trend participation for each age and racial/ethnic group divided by the total population on specific age and racial/ethnic in the county by year
a = mean participation over the five-year period
b = deviation from center year multiplied by observed participation, summed and divided by sum of squares of deviations
Think about restating definition of b
THECB 5/2006

12. Yc= a + bx x = +2 for five year trend extended to the following year
x = +3 for five year trend extended to the year after that
THECB 5/2006

13. Application of Rates
All three rate applications are used to produce current year’s forecast
“Best fit” rate becomes selected in-state participation rate
Selected rate must be closest to historical participation pattern:
if pattern is increasing, selection should be greater than preliminary current year’s participation
If pattern is stable, select nearest alternative
Why greater than preliminary current year’s participation: this would seem not to be a conservative selection?
THECB 5/2006

14. Comparison with Current Year’s Actual/Preliminary Enrollment
If historical enrollment increasing or decreasing, rate chosen must be within 3% of the preliminary/actual current year enrollment
If historical enrollment is stable, alternative must be within 1% of the preliminary/ actual current year enrollment
Produce estimates for next 2 years and 5 and 10 year estimates
These are the guidelines used to make selection of “best fit” rate.
Must be +3% if increasing and -3% if decreasing? If not, how does statement on previous page work?
THECB 5/2006

15. Nonresident Participation Rates
5 years of historical data used to determine “nonresidential percentage factor”
Current year’s estimate compared with preliminary/actual enrollment
Percentage applied to estimated enrollments
THECB 5/2006

16. Adjustments
Knowledge of local issues and changes considered when reviewing projections
Projected enrollments at capped institutions are redistributed to others
Draft sent to institutions for comment and potential alteration
THECB 5/2006

17. 2002 and 2004 Forecasts for 2005 and Actual
Difference
2002
2004
Actual
Univs
479,442
491,387
485,071
-1.17%
1.29%
CTCs
568,195
570,164
564,682
0.6%
1.0%
Total
1,047,638
1,061,551
1,049,753
-0.2%
1.1%
The 2002 Forecast for 2005 was more accurate for all sectors than the 2004 forecast. The reason: 2005 enrollment especially in the Rio Grande Valley was lower than anticipated.
Individual institutions as much as plus and minus 25 percent off.
THECB 5/2006

18. FAQs
Economic issues and unemployment: can’t get regional forecasts variations.
Asians not included as separate racial/ethnic group because of small numbers in many counties.
Yes, even if only one person from a county a rate is developed.
Institutions with substantial nonresidents (e.g., those on border) harder to forecast.
THECB 5/2006

19. Conclusions Forecast is better statewide than per institution.
Multiplier and institutional adjustments are fudge factors for influences that are harder to quantify.
State’s goal is for more students than forecasts predict. Hope forecast is wrong.
THECB 5/2006

20. Texas public higher education enrollment growth is not forecast to achieve target
604,000
335,000
118,460
This is the public university and CTC only version of the Closing the Gaps targets compared with the enrollment forecast from 2004.
This is growth only
564,682 CTCs for F 2005
485,071 universities for Fall 2005
1,049, Total
Source: Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board
THECB 5/2006