1. WP 312: Current chemical composition changes from different modes of transport E.Meijer, P.van Velthoven M.Gauss, I.S.A.Isaksen O.Dessens V.Grewe D.Caro, D.Hauglustaine P.Hoor, P.Jöckel, J.Lelieveld

2. WP 312: Current chemical composition changes from different modes of transport Idea: QUANTIFY the effect of different means of transport on the current state of the atmosphere Setup: 1. Take a number of models (six) 2. same initialization, emissions etc … as far as possible 3. simulate current conditions (2003) (BASE) 4. sensitivity runs to investigate the effect of ROAD SHIP AIR ALL (ROAD + SHIP + AIR) -5% -5% -5% - 5% each 4. later upscaling to 100%

3. WP 312: Current chemical composition changes from different modes of transport Status: - Monthly mean output perturbation fields for 2003 available on server in Oslo (x,a) - Draft of Report and under revision within AC312 (general assembly) - Timepos files produced for model/obsevation comparison BASE ROAD SHIP AIR ALL TIMEPOS TM4 xx x xxx OsloCTM2 x x x x x x p-TOMCAT xx x x xx LMDzINCA x x x xxx E39C abab ab ababx E5/M1 xb b bbx a) alternative data provided (tagged ozone, different emissions used) b) problems due to nudging and coupling, perturbation fields discarded, available on request

4. WP 312: Current chemical composition changes from different modes of transport Emissions: NOx [Tg(N)/yr] CO [Tg(C)/yr] ROAD6.85 (9.12) 31.3 (84) DLR-IVF SHIP4.39 (3.0) 0.6 (0.046) DNV AIRCRAFT0.76--AERO2K Non-traffic27.8 (22.9) 341.3 (249) EDGAR32FT2000 Biogenic(CO) + soil(NO) 6.89 (12.0) 48.2 (92.9) MPICHEM Brackets: Annual values from POET based on June June values provided by M. Gauss

5. WP 312: Current chemical composition changes from different modes of transport NO x -Emissions: Annual mean NO-flux ROAD SHIP AIRCRAFT NON-TRAFFIC + SOIL

6. WP 312: Current chemical composition changes from different modes of transport CO-Emissions: Annual mean CO-flux ROAD SHIP NON-TRAFFIC BIOGENIC

7. WP 312: Current chemical composition changes Comparison of models - Ozone BASE case - Column ozone perturbation - Linearity of approach

8. WP 312: Current chemical composition changes Comparison of models: Ozone BASE case (ppbv), July 2003, 1050-800 hPa TM4 OsloCTM2 LMDzINCAp-TOMCAT E39C ECHAM5/MESSy

9. WP 312: Current chemical composition changes Comparison of models: Ozone BASE case (ppbv), July 2003, zonal mean TM4 OsloCTM2 LMDzINCAp-TOMCAT E39C ECHAM5/MESSy

10. WP 312: Current chemical composition changes Comparison of models: Column Ozone Perturbations (DU), July 2003, ALL TM4 OsloCTM2 LMDzINCAp-TOMCAT E39Cdifferent scale !!! -similar patterns -absolute numbers vary among CTM's (minima from 3.5 – 5.5 DU)

11. WP 312: Current chemical composition changes Mean column ozone perturbation (DU) derived from all CTM’s January 0 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 July 0 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 January 15 10 5 0 July 15 10 5 0 Relative standard deviation (%)

12. 2 1 0 -2 2 1 0 -2 WP 312: Current chemical composition changes Linearity: Column Ozone Perturbations (DU): SUM(perturbations) – Perturbation (ALL emissions) Sum of individual O 3 -perturbations (DU) ROAD+SHIP+AIR O 3 -perturbation (DU) from ALL emissions reduced rel. difference (%) JanuaryJuly all CTM's Linearity of approach achieved (~1%) January

13. WP 312: Current chemical composition changes Effect of different means of transportation - January / July - PBL (1000 – 800 hPa) - UTLS (250 hPa) - seasonal cycles - regional differences

14. Ozone perturbations (ppbv), by case, 1000 - 800 hPa January ROAD July January SHIP July January AIRCRAFT July

15. Ozone perturbations (ppbv), by case, 250 hPa January ROAD July January SHIP July January AIRCRAFT July

16. Ozone perturbations (ppbv), by case, zonal mean January ROAD July January SHIP July January AIRCRAFT July

17. WP 312: Current chemical composition changes from different modes of transport Ozone perturbations (DU) from different means of transport Tropics: 10S - 30N Mid latitudes:30N - 60N Arctic:60N - 90N 1000 – 600 hPa 600 – 100 hPa % relative to total column: dashed: PBL, solid: UTLS SHIPROAD

18. Ozone perturbations (ppbv), by case, 1000 - 800 hPa January ROAD July January SHIP July January AIRCRAFT July

19. WP 312: Current chemical composition changes from different modes of transport Ozone perturbations from different means of transport in the boundary layer (< 800 hPa) by region as a function of time East Asia: 100E - 120E, 30N-50N Central Europe: 10W - 10 E, 40N-60N Eastern US: 90W - 70 W, 30N-50N

20. WP 312: Current chemical composition changes from different modes of transport Ozone perturbations from different means of transport in the boundary layer (< 800 hPa) by region as a function of time East Asia: 100E - 120E, 30N-50N Central Europe: 10W - 10 E, 40N-60N Eastern US: 90W - 70 W, 30N-50N dashed: example for regional variability of CTM's

21. WP 312: Current chemical composition changes from different modes of transport Ozone perturbations from different means of transport in the UTLS (250 hPa) by region as a function of time East Asia: 100E - 120E, 30N-50N Central Europe: 10W - 10 E, 40N-60N Eastern US: 90W - 70 W, 30N-50N

22. OH-perturbation (10 4 molec/cm 3 ), by case, 1000-800 hPa January ROAD July January SHIP July January AIRCRAFT July

23. OH perturbations (10 4 molec/cm 3 ), by case, zonal mean January ROAD July January SHIP July January AIRCRAFT July

24. WP 312: Current chemical composition changes from different modes of transport Summary: - Models agree by 15 % calculating the summed effect of traffic emissions on total ozone - Linear approach successful - Mean maxiumum total column reduction of ozone: 3.5 DU (Jan) – 4.5 DU (July) - discrepancies between models: 3.5 DU – 5.5 DU (July) - PBL:- road emissions: Largest regional effect of on ozone central Europe, Eastern US, summer - ship emissions: dominating ozone perturbation over the central eastern Atlantic, weaker seasonal cycle - 250 hPa: road emissions during NH-summer ~ 50% of aircraft effect ship emissions of importance in the tropics impact of road+ship ~ aircraft

25. WP 312: Current chemical composition changes from different modes of transport THANK YOU !

26. CO perturbations (ppbv), by case, zonal mean January ROAD July January SHIP July January AIRCRAFT July

27. WP 312: Current chemical composition changes from different modes of transport Ozone perturbations from different means of transport in the boundary layer (< 800 hPa) in polluted areas and 30°E downwind East Asia: 100E - 120E, 30N-50N Central Europe: 10W - 10 E, 40N-60N dashed: 30E downwind Eastern US: 90W - 70 W, 30N-50N

28. WP 312: Current chemical composition changes from different modes of transport Ozone perturbations from different means of transport in the UTLS (250 hPa) by region as a function of time East Asia: 100E - 120E, 30N-50N Central Europe: 10W - 10 E, 40N-60N Eastern US: 90W - 70 W, 30N-50N

29. WP 312: Current chemical composition changes AIRCRAFTALL Zonal mean ozone perturbations (ppbv), January ROADSHIP

30. WP 312: Current chemical composition changes AIRCRAFTALL Zonal mean ozone perturbations (ppbv), July ROADSHIP

31. WP 312: Current chemical composition changes from different modes of transport Emissions: NOx [Tg(N)/yr] CO [Tg(C)/yr] ROAD6.8531.3DLR-IVF SHIP4.390.6DNV AIRCRAFT0.76--AERO2K Non-traffic27.8341.3EDGAR32F T2000 Biogenic(C O) + soil(NO) 6.8948.2MPICHEM

32. WP 312: Current chemical composition changes from different modes of transport Emissions: NOx [Tg(N)/yr] CO [Tg(C)/yr] ROAD6.8531.3DLR-IVF SHIP4.390.6DNV AIRCRAFT0.76--AERO2K Non-traffic27.8341.3EDGAR32FT2000 Biogenic(CO) + soil(NO) 6.8948.2MPICHEM

33. WP 312: Current chemical composition changes from different modes of transport Ozone perturbations from different means of transport in the boundary layer (< 800 hPa) by latitude as a function of time Tropics: 10S - 30N Mid latitudes:30N - 60N Arctic:60N - 90N

34. Other tracers: - OH - CO WP 312: Current chemical composition changes from different modes of transport