1. The global relevance of Australia’s water policy
innovations
Jason Alexandra – Alexandra and Associates
ACIAR 2015

2. Summary of the challenge!
Sustain 9 billion plus within planetary boundaries
constraints of:
reducing carbon emission,
no new vast continents,
a changing climate,
intense competition for water,
meeting the needs of nature,
end of abundant fossil energy.

4. Millions of pumps and
cascades of dams remodel the world’s rivers, catchments and aquifers - mostly for irrigation

5. Critical climate impacts - Climate chaos?
Mostly through water

6. International partnerships
Australian national water reforms have focused on the MDB and its problems! Or Northern Australia and its potential?
This talk focuses on –
The MDB
Tasmania
International partnerships

7. Difficult transitions - Australia’s MDB reforms – adaptive watershed and water governance?

8. MDB – reflects a nation’s changing relationships with nature
Dreamtime and the next years
Occupation and colonisation
Navigation - shipping
Federation – a fair deal for SA?
Irrigation and economic development
Integrated water resources policy
Ecological restoration and care of nature
International Obligations
Next?

9. A brief history of Australian water policy
1890’s – 1980’s Water resource development
1994 COAG reforms – environmental flows, water markets, corporatisation and cost recovery
National Water Initiative 2004 – reaffirms commitment to reform, e-flows and markets
2008 to present – Water Act Reforms – Murray Darling Basin Authority – Basin Planning
Water development frontiers in the north and south
2007/08 water market trends
Both 2006/07 and 2007/08 water seasons have proven that the theory of markets works when applied to water
As water has become scarce during drought, water has moved from low value agriculture to higher value agriculture
Water market has assisted irrigators with permanent plantings to manage their businesses through the drought

10. Water reforms after two decades?
Great, good or average? Or just keep on “muddling through”… “best in the world”
“Australian Triumphalism” or “MDB in crisis” humility…too early to tell – Plans are not achievements – can the lessons be transferred
Commencement is dependent on the content of states WRPs:
Where interim and transitional WRPs are silent on water trading provisions the water trading rules will be in force in these areas from the commencement of the Basin Plan
Where Interim and transitional WRP’s have water trading rules that are inconsistent with the Basin Plan, these WRPs will override trading provisions within the Basin Plan
The MDBA does not know the magnitude of the consistency issue

11. Reforms follow droughts Variability of inflows: 1895-2011
As measured at Bourke on the Darling and Euston on the Murray below the Murrumbidgee
Figure from MDBA poster 2010

12. Use of long term averages...“all averages are lies” Cullen
Yet SDL and diversion limits based on “long term averages” as the unit of measure
Figure from MDBA poster 2010

13. Water policy contested – constructive conflict

14. Irrigation – 70% of water use - most in MDB
Powerful vested interests and political lobby - half the profit in Australian agriculture & horticulture, from 0.2% of land (NLWRA 2002) 14

15. Turning the ideologies and trajectory of the water agencies around after a hundred years of “development” and progress
1890
1912
1934
1956
1978
2000
6,000
12,000
18,000
Capacity (GL)
Murray
Darling

16. Water resources development trajectory Grand plans to develop Australia’s northern rivers from the Cape to the Kimberley – the 1000 dams agenda
Australian Government intention to ‘bridge the gap’ and investments under Water for the Future are expected to reduce the economic and social impacts

17. Future scenarios for Tasmanian irrigation
Future scenarios for Tasmanian irrigation... Moderate scale innovation with global relevance?
SMALL SCALE distributed

18. BASIN-PLAN-IN-CONFIDENCE
22/09/2010
Tasmania – wild, natural, historic and wet! %50 land in protected areas
Irrigation development under COAG reforms
Economically accountable
Be ecologically sustainable?
Avoid ecological degradation – e.g. water quality, species loss, salinity etc
Be integrated into catchment management

19. Water - reshaping the landscape!

20. New irrigation developments in Tassie – a $billion in infrastructure…
What about knowledge and innovation?????

21. Build on natural advantages – capable people, established growers and industries, communities, infrastructure, experience:
Focus on innovation, value add and markets

22. Value of agricultural production
Source: ABS 4610

23. Value of production from water use?

24. The innovation challenge
Assumptions
Total water use is 500GL by 2020
Maximum estimate of current productivity (10% per year)
The innovation challenge

25. Planning R&D in Tasmania – 3 scenarios – growth, muddling through
decline
Commencement is dependent on the content of states WRPs:
Where interim and transitional WRPs are silent on water trading provisions the water trading rules will be in force in these areas from the commencement of the Basin Plan
Where Interim and transitional WRP’s have water trading rules that are inconsistent with the Basin Plan, these WRPs will override trading provisions within the Basin Plan
The MDBA does not know the magnitude of the consistency issue

26. Foresighting Workshop
3-4 April 2014
Need innovation

27. Foresighting workshop
RD&E priorities
On farm productivity
New enterprises and business models
Natural resource management
Innovation, extension and entrepreneurs
On farm systems (productivity, farming systems, precision tech, new crops)
On-Farm productivity
Farm economics and optimisation of options
Precision irrigation and irrigation systems
Water use efficiency
Business models, investment, processing and exporting
Business models
Attracting capital investment
Branding and marketing Tasmanian products
Natural resource management
Landscape health and ecosystem protection
Maintaining soil productivity
Drainage and waterlogging, salinity and other environmental risks
Interaction between on-farm and landscape scales
RD&E arrangements
Arrangements and institutions for RD&E
Effective innovation
Education and adoption
Full report

29. Water and lack of it is a competitive advantage for Australia
Water and lack of it is a competitive advantage for Australia. As a “first world country in a third world continent” our knowledge of developing water policy, governance and management regimes suitable for working in a highly variable climate within a largely arid and semi arid continent should be recognised as an important asset. In a world preparing for increasing water scarcity (at least in the mid latitudes) and increased competition for available water, Australia’s history and geography give us valuable experience.

30. Map of estimated agricultural vulnerability to climate change – note impacts are based on poverty, population and climate impacts

32. Climate is hotter and drier How to deal with risk
Global average temperature
Satellite estimate of soil moisture
Australian average temperature

33. Challenges
Water planning under uncertainty – stationarity is dead. Past not useful for predicting the future
Climate impact and risk management

34. Surge in cereal and oil prices Commodity prices (US$/ton)
Global nexus of demand for food, energy, and water
Surge in cereal and oil prices Commodity prices (US$/ton)
Source: Data from FAO 2007 and IMF 2007.

35. Challenges Contested views and values Systematic conservation planning
Climate change and conservation paradigms?
End of stationarity
Water planning under uncertainty
Climate drives catchment changes
Climate impact and risk management

36. Develop capacity for robust water governance under uncertainty
Use scenarios to plan for different futures –
transitions, new economies, climate change, etc

37. Directions
Innovations, (technical, institutional and policy)
Partnerships
Knowledge coalition
Industry, civil society and community involvement

38. Water (IWRM) and river basin governance involves culture, practice, policy and politics.
People and power dimensions

39. Globally water is a strategic resource.
Australian water policy evolved in response to a harsh, variable climate
Opportunities for shared learning but critical evaluations required – but needs people, commitment, knowledge