1. The Earth is not flat neither is the sea
Jan Even Øie nilsen
The Earth is not flat neither is the sea
Nansen Environmental and
Remote Sensing Center
VISIT BY LOGODI NERSC

2. Projections of sea level change by the end of the century80 40
-40 cm
Figure 13.20: Ensemble mean net regional sea level change (m) evaluated from 21 CMIP5 models for the RCP scenarios (a) 2.6, (b) 4.5, (c) 6.0 and (d) 8.5 between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100. Each map includes effects of atmospheric loading, plus land-ice, GIA and terrestrial water sources.
Figure 13.18: Ensemble mean regional contributions to sea level change (m) from (a) GIA, (b) glaciers and (c) ice sheet SMB. Panels (b) and (c) are based on information available from scenario RCP4.5. All panels represent changes between the periods 1986–2000 and 2081–2100.
Figure 13.16: (a) Ensemble mean projection of the time-averaged dynamic and steric sea level changes for the period 2081–2100 relative to the reference period 1986–2005, computed from 21 CMIP5 climate models (in m), using the RCP4.5 experiment. The figure includes the globally averaged steric sea level increase of 0.18 ± 0.05 m. (b) RMS spread (deviation) of the individual model result around the ensemble mean (m).
RCP4.5
IPCC AR5

3. Sea level rise is due to many processes80 40
-40 cm
Figure 13.20: Ensemble mean net regional sea level change (m) evaluated from 21 CMIP5 models for the RCP scenarios (a) 2.6, (b) 4.5, (c) 6.0 and (d) 8.5 between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100. Each map includes effects of atmospheric loading, plus land-ice, GIA and terrestrial water sources.
Figure 13.18: Ensemble mean regional contributions to sea level change (m) from (a) GIA, (b) glaciers and (c) ice sheet SMB. Panels (b) and (c) are based on information available from scenario RCP4.5. All panels represent changes between the periods 1986–2000 and 2081–2100.
Figure 13.16: (a) Ensemble mean projection of the time-averaged dynamic and steric sea level changes for the period 2081–2100 relative to the reference period 1986–2005, computed from 21 CMIP5 climate models (in m), using the RCP4.5 experiment. The figure includes the globally averaged steric sea level increase of 0.18 ± 0.05 m. (b) RMS spread (deviation) of the individual model result around the ensemble mean (m).
RCP4.5
IPCC AR5

4. Melting of land based ice
Gravitational attraction
Reduced gravitational attraction
Figure 13.18: Ensemble mean regional contributions to sea level change (m) from (a) GIA, (b) glaciers and (c) ice sheet SMB. Panels (b) and (c) are based on information available from scenario RCP4.5. All panels represent changes between the periods 1986–2000 and 2081–2100.

5. Land uplift after the last ice age
GLACIAL MAXIMUM
NOW
Figure 13.18: Ensemble mean regional contributions to sea level change (m) from (a) GIA, (b) glaciers and (c) ice sheet SMB. Panels (b) and (c) are based on information available from scenario RCP4.5. All panels represent changes between the periods 1986–2000 and 2081–2100.
IMAGE The Northern Hemisphere at the end of the last Ice Age (10,000 years ago)

6. Thermal expansion and currents
Figure 13.20: Ensemble mean net regional sea level change (m) evaluated from 21 CMIP5 models for the RCP scenarios (a) 2.6, (b) 4.5, (c) 6.0 and (d) 8.5 between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100. Each map includes effects of atmospheric loading, plus land-ice, GIA and terrestrial water sources.
Figure 13.18: Ensemble mean regional contributions to sea level change (m) from (a) GIA, (b) glaciers and (c) ice sheet SMB. Panels (b) and (c) are based on information available from scenario RCP4.5. All panels represent changes between the periods 1986–2000 and 2081–2100.
Figure 13.16: (a) Ensemble mean projection of the time-averaged dynamic and steric sea level changes for the period 2081–2100 relative to the reference period 1986–2005, computed from 21 CMIP5 climate models (in m), using the RCP4.5 experiment. The figure includes the globally averaged steric sea level increase of 0.18 ± 0.05 m. (b) RMS spread (deviation) of the individual model result around the ensemble mean (m).

7. Thermal expansion and currents
Figure 13.20: Ensemble mean net regional sea level change (m) evaluated from 21 CMIP5 models for the RCP scenarios (a) 2.6, (b) 4.5, (c) 6.0 and (d) 8.5 between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100. Each map includes effects of atmospheric loading, plus land-ice, GIA and terrestrial water sources.
Figure 13.18: Ensemble mean regional contributions to sea level change (m) from (a) GIA, (b) glaciers and (c) ice sheet SMB. Panels (b) and (c) are based on information available from scenario RCP4.5. All panels represent changes between the periods 1986–2000 and 2081–2100.
Figure 13.16: (a) Ensemble mean projection of the time-averaged dynamic and steric sea level changes for the period 2081–2100 relative to the reference period 1986–2005, computed from 21 CMIP5 climate models (in m), using the RCP4.5 experiment. The figure includes the globally averaged steric sea level increase of 0.18 ± 0.05 m. (b) RMS spread (deviation) of the individual model result around the ensemble mean (m).

8. Different contributions contribute differently
Melting ice sheets
Melting glaciers 10
-10 25 15 20
Expansion and circulation
Land uplift
Figure 13.20: Ensemble mean net regional sea level change (m) evaluated from 21 CMIP5 models for the RCP scenarios (a) 2.6, (b) 4.5, (c) 6.0 and (d) 8.5 between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100. Each map includes effects of atmospheric loading, plus land-ice, GIA and terrestrial water sources.
Figure 13.18: Ensemble mean regional contributions to sea level change (m) from (a) GIA, (b) glaciers and (c) ice sheet SMB. Panels (b) and (c) are based on information available from scenario RCP4.5. All panels represent changes between the periods 1986–2000 and 2081–2100.
Figure 13.16: (a) Ensemble mean projection of the time-averaged dynamic and steric sea level changes for the period 2081–2100 relative to the reference period 1986–2005, computed from 21 CMIP5 climate models (in m), using the RCP4.5 experiment. The figure includes the globally averaged steric sea level increase of 0.18 ± 0.05 m. (b) RMS spread (deviation) of the individual model result around the ensemble mean (m).
RCP4.5
-10 10 20 30 cm
IPCC AR5

9. Total sea level rise by the end of the century35 80 40
-40 cm 50
RCP4.5
Figure 13.20: Ensemble mean net regional sea level change (m) evaluated from 21 CMIP5 models for the RCP scenarios (a) 2.6, (b) 4.5, (c) 6.0 and (d) 8.5 between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100. Each map includes effects of atmospheric loading, plus land-ice, GIA and terrestrial water sources.
(2007)
(2007)
IPCC AR5

10. Regional sea level projections for Norway
Stavanger
meter
RCP4.5
m/100 år
∆RSL
Oslo
meter
Simpson et al. (2015)

11. Thank You for Your attention!