1. Megatrends en transities:
Europa’s langetermijn milieu en klimaatbeleid
18 December 2015 – Megatrends Conference, Brussels
Presentation by Dr. Hans Bruyninckx, Executive Director, EEA

2. The European Environment Agency
The EEA is an EU agency that operates at the interface of science and policy.
With a network of more than institutions in 39 European countries, the EEA provides timely, reliable and relevant information to support sustainable development.
EEA work is targeted at EU institutions, EEA member countries, civil society and the general public.

3. The European environment – state and outlook 2015 (SOER 2015)
A comprehensive assessment of past trends and future outlooks.
SOER 2015 informs policy implementation and reflects on opportunities to recalibrate policies, knowledge, investments and innovations in line with the 2050 vision of the 7th EAP.
SOER 2015 Synthesis report
SOER 2015 Assessment of global megatrends
11 briefings
Global
megatrends
25 briefings
European
briefings
9 briefings
Cross-country
comparisons
39+3 briefings
Countries and regions

4. The policy context 2050 2020/2030 2014-2018 Halt biodiversity loss
SUSTAINABILITY
2050
Halt biodiversity loss
targets => 2030
Circular Economy
SDG
Vision in 7th EAP
Reduce GHG %
Zero impacts (air)
Acquis
WFD targets
Fisheries below MSY
MDGs
2020/2030
TIME

5. Vision of the 7th Environment Action Programme
‘In 2050, we live well, within the planet's ecological limits.
Our prosperity and healthy environment stem from an innovative, circular economy where nothing is wasted and where natural resources are managed sustainably, and biodiversity is protected, valued and restored in ways that enhance our society's resilience. Our low-carbon growth has long been decoupled from resource use, setting the pace for a global safe and sustainable society.’
Source: 7th EU Environment Action Programme

6. Sustainable development? Of course not!
Sustainability revisited
Social
Environment
Sustainable development?
Of course not!
Economy

7. Living well, within environmental limits

9. Key messages from SOER 2015
Policies have delivered substantial benefits for the environment, economy and people’s well-being; major challenges remain
Europe faces persistent and emerging challenges linked to production and consumption systems, and the rapidly changing global context
Achieving the 2050 vision requires system transitions, driven by more ambitious actions on policy, knowledge, investments and innovation
Doing so presents major opportunities to boost Europe’s economy and employment and put Europe at the frontier of science and innovation
I just want to show you where I’m going to end up with the main messages….
I’m going to go into each of these messages in a bit more detail in the coming slides.
Bullet 1: this is the message that emerges from integration.
Bullet 2: we face systemic challenges > what we mean by this is…
Bullet 3:
© Daniel Danko, Environment & Me /EEA

10. Progress to policy targets
Thematic priority objective 1: Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capital
Past (5–10 year) trends
Progress to policy targets
Terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity 
Land use and soil functions
No target 
Ecological status of freshwater bodies 
Water quality and nutrient loading   
Air pollution and its ecosystem impacts
Marine and coastal biodiversity
Climate change impacts on ecosystems
No target
20+ years outlook
Largely on track
Partially on track
Largely not on track   
Improving trends dominate
Trends show mixed picture
Deteriorating trends dominate
Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.

11. Progress to policy targets
Thematic priority objective 2: Resource efficiency and the low-carbon economy
Past (5–10 year) trends
Progress to policy targets
Material resource efficiency and material use
No target
Waste management 
Greenhouse gas emissions and climate change mitigation
 / 
Energy consumption and fossil fuel use    
Transport demand and related environmental impacts
Industrial pollution to air, soil and water
Water use and water quantity stress 
20+ years outlook
Largely on track
Partially on track
Largely not on track   
Improving trends dominate
Trends show mixed picture
Deteriorating trends dominate
Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.

12. Progress to policy targets
Thematic priority objective 3: Safeguarding from environmental risks to health
Past (5–10 year) trends
Progress to policy targets
Water pollution and related environmental health risks
 / 
Air pollution and related environmental health risks 
Noise pollution (especially in urban areas)
Urban systems and grey infrastructure   
No target 
Climate change and related environmental health risks
Chemicals and related environmental health risks
 / 
20+ years outlook /    
Largely on track
Partially on track
Largely not on track   
Improving trends dominate
Trends show mixed picture
Deteriorating trends dominate
Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.

13. The overall picture: Efficiency improvements have not secured long-term resilience
Protecting, conserving
and enhancing natural capital
Resource efficiency
and the low-carbon
economy
Safeguarding from
environmental risks to health
Past (5–10) year trends
20+ years
outlook /
Improving trends dominate
Trends show mixed picture
Deteriorating trends dominate
Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.

14. Understanding past trends and future outlooks
Two major factors explain the uneven progress and prospects:
1. The changing global context
Competition for resources
Pressures from outside Europe
Planetary boundaries
2. Systemic characteristics of environmental challenges
Complexity
Uncertainty
Environmental, social and economic interdependencies
© Ana Skobe, Environment & Me /EEA

16. What are global megatrends?
Setting the scene
What are global megatrends?
Global megatrends =
large-scale
high impact
often interdependent
social, economic, political, environmental or technological changes.
Europe’s ecological and societal resilience will be increasingly affected by those global driving forces.
This increasing interdependence presents many challenges but also many opportunities for Europe to shape its future.
© NASA Earth Observatory

17. Global megatrends affect Europe’s resource needs
The changing global context
Global megatrends affect Europe’s resource needs
Population
Technology
Economy
….global megatrends strongly impact Europe’s ability to meet its basic resource needs in the coming decades
Environment
Governance

18. 43 % Diverging global population trends
The changing global context
Diverging global population trends
Growing population, but at a slower rate
Asia, Africa (!) on the rise
Older
Migration
43 %
... growth of the global population by 2050
(UN, 2013)

19. Towards a more urban world
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Towards a more urban world
Urban areas in developing countries will absorb most of the global population increase, with 67% of people living in cities by 2050.
Most of the growth is expected to be in megacities
Compact cities are the most efficient and environmentally sustainable
Urban growth is driving land-use change in Europe
Integrated urban management could increase the environmental resilience of Europe’s cities, particularly in the east and south.
© Adela Nistora, Environment & Me /EEA

20. By 2050, 67% of the world population is expected to live in cities
Towards a more urban world
By 2050, 67% of the world population is expected to live in cities
Urban and rural population in developed and less developed world regions, 1950–2050
Source: UN World urbanization prospects: The 2012 revision.

21. 170 % The global middle class Growing urban middle class
The changing global context
Growing urban middle class
Share of middle class consumers
The global middle class
Expected growth from 1.8 billion in 2010 to 4.9 billion by 2030, with Asia accounting for 85 % of that growth
170 %
...growth of the global middle class by 2030
Challenge: rapidly growing burden of resource use and pollution
(Brookings Institution, 2012)

22. 300 % Continued economic growth?
The changing global context
Continued economic growth?
In the period , global GDP is expected to grow by…
300 %
(OECD, 2014)

23. Intensified global competition for resources
The changing global context
Intensified global competition for resources
World materials use has grown 10-fold since 1900
European economy structurally dependent on imports of raw materials
(Krausmann et al., 2009)

24. World resource use is expected to at least double in the next three decades
© Ana Skobe, Environment & Me /EEA
Souce: SERI (2013): SERI Global Material Flows Database Edition. Available at:

25. Intensified global competition for resources
The changing global context
Intensified global competition for resources
Proportion of global production of EU critical raw materials within a single country, 2010–2012
(EC, 2014)

26. Accelerating technological change
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Accelerating technological change
The pace of technological change, particularly in the fields of information, communication, nano- and bio-technologies, is unprecedented.
This provides opportunities to reduce humanity’s impact on the environment and reliance on non-renewable natural resources.
The risks and uncertainties associated with technological innovation can be managed using regulatory frameworks and the precautionary principle.
By recalibrating its institutions, policies and environmental knowledge base, Europe can support better risk management, while enhancing innovation and the diffusion of new technologies.
© Keith Arkins, Environment & Me /EEA

27. Growing pressures on ecosystems
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Growing pressures on ecosystems
The demands of a growing global population with rapidly changing consumption patterns for food, mobility and energy are exerting ever- increasing pressure on the Earth's ecosystems and their life-supporting services.
In combination with climate change, these changes raise concerns about current meat-heavy diets, water use and strategies for bioenergy production.
Exacerbated by climate change and continued pollution, rates of global habitat destruction and biodiversity loss are predicted to increase, including in Europe.
Continued degradation of global ecosystems and their services will influence poverty and inequality, potentially driving increased migration.
© CIFOR

28. Growing pressures on ecosystems
Global biodiversity loss will continue, with the strongest impacts on poor people in developing countries
Terrestrial mean species abundance, 2010–2050
Source: OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050.

29. Transnational land acquisition, 2005–2009
Growing pressures on ecosystems
The ever rising pressure on the Earth’s ecosystems is fuelled by meat consumption and bioenergy demand
Transnational land acquisition, 2005–2009
Source: Rulli et al., 2013.

30. Increasingly severe consequences of climate change
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Increasingly severe consequences of climate change
Recent changes in the global climate are unprecedented over millennia and will continue.
Climate change is expected increasingly to threaten natural ecosystems and biodiversity, slow economic growth, erode global food security, harm human health and increase inequality.
The risks of pervasive and irreversible impacts are expected to increase. They could, however, be reduced by further emissions abatement and adaptation measures, building on past actions in Europe and internationally.
Key risks for Europe include flood events, droughts and other weather extremes that damage ecosystems and biodiversity, as well as infrastructure and human well-being.
© Manuela Aldeghi, Environment & Me /EEA
Climate change impacts on ecosystems
Water use and water stress
Urban systems and grey infrastructure
Climate change & related envi. health risks
Climate change impacts and adaptation

31. Increasingly severe consequences of climate change
Global temperature increases of 4C or more by 2100 would create significant risks to global food security
Projected change in global aggregate crop yields due to climate change, 2010–2109
Source: IPPC, 2014.
Climate change impacts on ecosystems
Water use and water stress
Urban systems and grey infrastructure
Climate change & related envi. health risks
Climate change impacts and adaptation

32. Increasing environmental pollution
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Increasing environmental pollution
Globally, levels of air pollution and releases of nutrients from agriculture and wastewater remain high, causing acidification and eutrophication in ecosystems, and losses in agricultural yield.
In the coming decades, overall pollution levels are projected to increase strongly, particularly in Asia.
Although Europe’s pollutant releases are expected to continue declining, European ecosystems and citizens are likely to be affected by developments in other regions.
For example, despite a fall in air pollutant emissions there has not been an equivalent improvement in air quality across Europe, partly as a result of the transboundary transport of air pollutants.
© Jonathan Díaz Marbá, Environment & Me /EEA
Air pollution & its ecosystem impacts
Industrial pollution to air, soil and water
Air pollution & related envi. health risks
Air pollution
Air pollution

33. 25 % Changing disease burdens and risks of pandemics
The Changing global context
Changing disease burdens and risks of pandemics
25 %
...of the global burden of disease and deaths can be attributed to environmental causes (mostly PM, ozone)
(OECD, 2012)
Urban air pollution: main environmental cause of premature mortality worldwide in 2050
Climate change is likely to exacerbate this

34. Diversifying approaches to governance
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Diversifying approaches to governance
In the context of rapid globalisation, governments are facing a mismatch between the increasingly long-term, global, systemic challenges facing society and their more national and short-term focus and powers.
The need for more coordinated governance at the global scale has been reflected in the proliferation of international environmental agreements, particularly during the 1990s.
More recently, businesses and civil society have also taken an increasing role in governance.
This broadening of approaches is welcome but it raises concerns about coordination and effectiveness, as well as accountability and transparency.
© Alan Kotok
GHG emissions & CC mitigation
Mitigating climate change
Mitigating climate change

35. The changing global context
What can we conclude?
Boundaries between developments in Europe and other parts of the world are growing more blurred.
Europe’s success in achieving its environmental, social and economic goals will depend on its ability to respond to the long-term and global contexts.
Europeans have two main clusters of response options:
Seek to shape global change in ways that mitigate and manage risks, and create opportunities (e.g. unilateral and multilateral efforts to mitigate environmental pressures, etc.).
Find ways to adapt to global trends (e.g. seeking to anticipate and avoid harm by increasing the resilience of social, environmental and economic systems, etc).

36. Global systems of production and consumption need to be reconfigured
Within
environmental
limits
(Global Footprint Network, 2012; UNDP, 2014)
‘good life’

37. Vision of the 7th Environment Action Programme
‘In 2050, we live well, within the planet's ecological limits.
Our prosperity and healthy environment stem from an innovative, circular economy where nothing is wasted and where natural resources are managed sustainably, and biodiversity is protected, valued and restored in ways that enhance our society's resilience. Our low-carbon growth has long been decoupled from resource use, setting the pace for a global safe and sustainable society.’
Source: 7th EU Environment Action Programme

38. Systemic environmental challenges require systemic solutions
Not just incremental efficiency gains
Source: Tesla
but fundamental transitions in food, energy, mobility, urban, finance and fiscal systems
through profound changes in dominant practices, policies and thinking.

39. Cars are more efficient but contribute to a range of negative impacts on people’s quality of life in cities
(SLIDE 14) In transport, the stock of cars in the EU-27 has been continuously increasing since And at the same time, kilometres travelled increased at nearly the same pace. As a result, fuel consumption has increased in spite of the fact that cars are more efficient.

40. Homes are now more energy efficient, but also much larger, increasing pressures on land, water and materials
(SLIDE 13) Similar trends are at work in housing and transport. Homes are more energy efficient, but this is partly offset by the growth in the floor area. So overall fuel consumption goes up.
Source: SCP023 indicator (draft)

41. From challenge to response
The EU policy and related activities offer a strong basis for action:
7EAP enabling objectives (implementation, innovation, investment, information)
Circular economy package
Raw Materials Initiative
EU climate policy
Sustainable Development Goals

42. Personal reflections on the outcome of COP21
2° (and 1,5°!)
2100 perspective
Global
Binding
MRV
Deep and fast changes
Level playing field
© Victor Troyanov, Environment & Me /EEA

43. Rapid system change and megatrends
Internet since 1994
Obesity in the US 2

44. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1985
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14%

45. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1986
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14%

46. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1987
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14%

47. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1988
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14%

48. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1989
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14%

49. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1990
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14%

50. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1991
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19%

51. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1992
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19%

52. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1993
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19%

53. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1994
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19%

54. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1995
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19%

55. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1996
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19%

56. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1997
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19% ≥20%

57. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1998
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19% ≥20%

58. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1999
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19% ≥20%

59. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2000
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19% ≥20%

60. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2001
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19% %–24% ≥25%

61. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2002
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19% %–24% ≥25%

62. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2003
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19% %–24% ≥25%

63. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2004
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19% %–24% ≥25%

64. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2005
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19% %–24% %–29% ≥30%

65. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2006
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19% %–24% %–29% ≥30%

66. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2007
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19% %–24% %–29% ≥30%

67. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2008
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19% %–24% %–29% ≥30%

68. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2009
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19% %–24% %–29% ≥30%

69. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2010
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data <10% %–14% %–19% %–24% %–29% ≥30%

70. Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1990, 2000, 2010
(*BMI 30, or about 30 lbs. overweight for 5’4” person)
1990
2000
2010
No Data <10% %–14% %–19% %–24% %–29% ≥30%

71. 40 jaar kennisopbouw Evolutie in probleemdefinitie en kennisbenadering
Zware industriële pollutie
Single issues
DPSIR denken
Systeembenaderingen: probleemanalyse; denkkaders; oplossingen
Evolutie in disciplinaire interesse
Chemici, biologen, ingenieurs
Economen, geneeskundigen, geografen, geologen
Bestuurskundigen, ruimtelijke ordeners, juristen, filosofen
Psychologen, historici, …

72. Toekomstgerichte kennisontwikkeling
Langetermijndenken
Systeembenadering
Betekenis van limieten in denken, onderzoek en praktijk?
Methodologisch? Scenario’s, future’s studies, for-casting/sight, back-casting, distance to target, gap analysis, cost/benefit analysis 2.0
Onzekerheden, non-lineariteit
Niches, innovatie, R&D
Sterke aandacht voor lock-ins, backlash, breakdown risks

73. Explore SOER 2015 online: eea.europa.eu/soer

74. Stay informed about SOER 2015 and receive our products  sign up at:
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