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2018 Agricultural Climate Outlook

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Presentation on theme: "2018 Agricultural Climate Outlook"— Presentation transcript:

1 2018 Agricultural Climate Outlook
January 17, 2018 2018 Agricultural Climate Outlook Allen Dutcher Agricultural Extension Climatologist Phone: (402)

2 Four Month Global SST Anomalies

3 Current Global SST Anomalies

4 Sub-Surface Equatorial SST Trend
NEBRASKA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE

5 ENSO Forecast: Consensus of Global Models
NEBRASKA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE

6 Mean La Nina Winter Jet Stream Pattern

7 Global La Nina Anomalies

8 Winter Temperature Response to La Nina

9 Arctic Oscillation (Polar Vortex)
NEBRASKA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE

10 GFS 500 mb (Negative Artic Oscillation)

11 National 30 Day Temperature Trend
NEBRASKA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE

12 National 60 Day Temperature Trend
NEBRASKA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE

13 National Water Year Temperature Trend
NEBRASKA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE

14 Winter Precipitation Response to La Nina

15 Madden Julian Oscillation
NEBRASKA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE

16 National Water Year Precipitation Trend
NEBRASKA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE

17 September 2017 Water Year Precipitation Trend
NEBRASKA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE

18 Current U.S. Drought Monitor

19 Current Great Lakes Ice Cover
NEBRASKA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE

20 U.S. Snow Depth Map – 1/3/18

21 Current Western U.S. Snow Pack Conditions
NEBRASKA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE

22 Hail/Tornado Frequency During ENSO Events

23 GFS 500 mb Day 3 Forecast

24 GFS 500 mb Day 10 Forecast

25 GFS 500 mb Day 16 Forecast

26 Climate Drivers to Watch this Year
Snow Pack – drought implications and irrigation costs Ice Accumulations La Nina end and Atmospheric Response Great Lakes ice accumulation and downstream response Drought areas merging Switch over to El Nino and jet stream response Southwestern U.S. Monsoon season Fall/winter conditions NEBRASKA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE

27 facebook.com/neclimate
@mshulski3 153 Hardin Hall | Holdrege St. | Lincoln, Nebraska School of Natural Resources at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln nsco.unl.edu p) e)


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