1. Session 6 - Space Weather Policy, Key Drivers, and Prime Opportunities
An Operational Scheme for Establishing a National Space Weather Infrastructure
M. Messerotti1,2,3
1INAF-Science Directorate, Rome, IT
2Dept. of Physics, University of Trieste, IT
3National Institute for Nuclear Physics, Trieste Division, IT
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

2. Scheme of the Presentation
APOLOGIES…
THE OPERATIONAL FRAMEWORK
MY BASIC ASSUMPTIONS
A GENERAL SWX FUNCTIONAL MODEL
THE SWX RESOURCES IN ITALY
A SWX FUNCTIONAL MODEL FOR ITALY
CONCLUSIONS
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

3. APOLOGIES TO ESA, NASA, NOAA
IN THIS PRESENTATION THE ACRONYM FOR SPACE WEATHER IS “SWX” (WMO STANDARD) TO AVOID AMBIGUITIES SUCH AS, E.G.,
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

4. APOLOGIES TO SWX MODELLERS & FORECASTERS
THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS ARE QUITE APODICTIC, AS THEY ARE THE OUTCOME OF MY MULTI-DECADAL SYSTEM ANALYSIS OF SPACE WEATHER SCIENCE AND OPERATIONS
BUT WE MUST BE AWARE OF OUR LIMITS AND EDUCATE THE END-USERS ACCORDINGLY, TO AVOID THEM TO REQUIRE, E.G., A RELIABLE SOLAR FLARE PREDICTION WITHIN HOURS WITH A 99% CONFIDENCE
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

5. THE operational framework
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

6. Weather Domains
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

7. SWx Trigger Monitoring
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

8. Solar Weather Monitoring
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

9. Interplanetary Weather Monitoring
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

10. Magnetospheric Weather Monitoring
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

11. High To Middle Atmosphere Weather
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

12. Litosphere To Hydrosphere Weather Monitoring
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

13. A.K.A. THE DEVIL’S ADVOCATE
the bads
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

14. Just To Warm Up And Fan The Flames: Some Breaking News on Space Weather A.K.A. What We All Think, But Never Dared to Say
WHAAAT?
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

15. Just To Warm Up And Fan The Flames: Some Breaking News on Space Weather
WHAAAT?
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

16. Due to the Complexity
SWx is the outcome of multi-scale non-linear perturbations occurring in physical systems that are characterised by (sometimes deterministic) chaoticity and are non-lineary coupled among them  huge variety of manifestations within the same category of events
WHAT PHYSICS MODELS?...
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

17. DUE TO THE ISSUE OF OBSERVATIONAL TIME SPAN
AGE OF THE SUN: Ga
START OF SOLAR CYCLES: Ga BP
NO. OF SOLAR CYCLES: M
OBSERVED FROM GROUND
OBSERVED FROM SPACE
WHAT STATISTICS?...
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

18. DUE TO OBSERVATIONAL GAPS
LIMITED COVERAGE IN:
TIME
SPACE
ENERGY
LONGITUDE
BOTH FROM SPACE AND FROM GROUND
WHAT CLIMATOLOGY?...
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

19. No Panic: We Can Nowcast…
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

20. SWx Dashboard
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

21. SWx Impact Dashboard
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

22. Nowcasting is Challenging as Well!
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

23. basic assumptions about the SWx framework
[MY]
basic assumptions about the SWx framework
29/06/17
MAURO MESSEROTTI

24. A SWx Workflow Template
It is fundamental to correctly identify activities in the context of SWx as
SWx science, i.e., the science underpinning SWx
SWx monitoring, i.e., the observational resources to monitor SWx
SWx operations, i.e., the use of operational models to forecast SWx
29/06/17
MAURO MESSEROTTI

25. Some key considerations
Despite that there is a natural overlapping of the three categories of SWx activities, they can be clearly identified and should not be interchanged
The above consideration applies to both data sets and observing facilities, e.g.,
A non-active data set is useful for SWx science, but not for SWx operations
A spacecraft that provides data with a latency of days to months has not been designed for SWx operations
etc.
29/06/17
MAURO MESSEROTTI

26. SWX SCIENCE MODELS
Provide a physical description of subsets of typologies of events
Are built on selected use cases
Cannot provide an effective forecasting tool before being extended
Are not compliant with standard metrics yet
Are not validated and should be transitioned to operational models
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

27. SWX OPERATIONAL MODELS
Are sufficiently universal for each typology of considered events
Have been validated by a standard procedures based on specific metrics
Produce verified quality results
Allow forecasts with high reliability for an actionable time-ahead span
According to the modelled event typology, only more than 95% confidence level forecasts can be considered as actionable
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

28. Transitioning Science To Operations
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

29. SPACE CLIMATE DATA Describe the physical state in the past
Are relevant to ground- and space-based observations from instruments and experiments that are no more operational
Are fundamental for post-event analysis
Are useful for studying medium- to long-term trends in phenomenology
Allow the formulation of science models
Are useless in SWx operational forecasting when they are non-active, but can be used for data assimilation when they are active
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

30. SWX DATA Describe the physical state in near-real-time
Are provided by near-real-time observations from ground- and space-based instruments and experiments
Are ingested and made available in near-real time
Are used in operational models for forecasting
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

31. Data Assimilation and Fusion
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

32. a general swx functional model diagram
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

33. MESSEROTTI, 2017
29/06/17
MAURO MESSEROTTI

34. the swx resources in italy
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

35. SOLO SARDINIA RADIO TELESCOPE TELESPAZIO THALES ALENIA IAPS IAPS IAPS
29/06/17
MAURO MESSEROTTI

36. INAF SWx/Sp. Climate Observing and Archiving Facilities
INAF-Turin Astrophysical Observatory &
Aerospace Logistics Technology Engineering Co.
SOHO & SOLAR ORBITER DATA ARCHIVES
OPERATIONAL, ACTIVE & NON-ACTIVE
HELIOSPHERIC DATA AND SWX CENTER (CME)
SOON TO BE OPERATIONAL
ESA SSA SWE (TBD)
INAF-Trieste Astronomical Observatory
SOLAR RADIO MONITORING
SOON TO BE OPERATIONAL (?)
ESA SWENET / ESA SSA SWE (?)
SOLRA SOLAR RADIO ARCHIVE
OPERATIONAL, NON-ACTIVE
INAF-Institute for Space Astrophysics and Planetology (Rome)
SVIRCO NEUTRON MONITOR
OPERATIONAL
ESA SSA SWE
DOME C EAST HF RADAR IN ANTARCTICA (SUPERDARN)
INAF-Rome Astronomical Observatory
PRECISION SOLAR PHOTOMETRIC TELESCOPE
OPERATIONAL
ESA SWENET / ESA SSA SWE (?)
SAMM SOLAR ACTIVITY MOF MONITOR
SOON TO BE OPERATIONAL
IBIS DATA ARCHIVE (HR SPECTROPOLARIMETER)
OPERATIONAL, ACTIVE
HISTORICAL SOLAR IMAGES DIGITAL ARCHIVE
OPERATIONAL, NON-ACTIVE
SRT Sardinia Radio Telescope
SOLAR RADIO IMAGING (K-BAND)
UNDER DEVELOPMENT
INAF-Catania Astrophysical Observatory
SOLAR WL, Hα HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGING
OPERATIONAL
ESA SWENET / ESA SSA SWE
INAF- Naples Astronomical Observatory
VAMOS (HR) SOLAR MOF IMAGING
OPERATIONAL (SOON TO BE OPERATIONAL)

37. & HISTO-A & SAMM 2 IAPS IAPS SWERTO Space Weather Research @ UNI-TOV
29/06/17
MAURO MESSEROTTI

38. 29/06/17
MAURO MESSEROTTI

39. IAPS
IAPS
29/06/17
MAURO MESSEROTTI

40. a prototype swx functional model diagram for italy
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

41. Prototype SWx Functional Model Diagram for Italy
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

42. Italian Space Agency Space Weather Infrastructure A First Step
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

43. Conclusions
SWx is the physical state of a system of complex physical systems that are chaotic and nonlinearly coupled
To date, no SWx manifestations can be reliably (i.e., to more than 95% confidence) forecasted but only nowcasted
Science, models and observations must be improved
A SWx centre must have the capacity to provide fundamental tiles for building up the nowcasting and (in future) forecasting scenarios
Its functional model is country-dependent
Italian resources in SWx monitoring, modelling and forecasting are quite comprehensive
The Italian Space Agency is pioneering a SWx data and model centre (ASPIS)
Coordination actions at the national level are in progress
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI

44. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION !
PS THERE ARE NO GOODS:
A PESSIMIST IS A WELL-INFORMED OPTIMIST
28 NOV 2017
M. MESSEROTTI