1. Fault Lines: Pristina, Kosovo
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR TRAINING PURPOSES ONLY
Fault Lines: Pristina, Kosovo
05 DEC 2017
The Republic of Kosovo is part of the former Eastern Bloc countries and is bordered by Albania, Macedonia, and Serbia. Serbia has maintained a socialist government and is hostile towards the US, which has strong ties to Kosovo. There has be instability in the country due to a mixture of the ethnic groups co-located within its’ borders (Albanians, Macedonians and Serbians). Leaders in Kosovo utilize the distrust and prejudice between each ethnic group IOT gain support and power within the government. This tactic has led to violence and persecution of minority groups. The recent assassination of Legitimate Kosovo Government (LKG) Prime Minister (01JUN14) led to the LKG Parliament dissolving. This has led to internal power struggles and a power vacuum. The new events in Kosovo have led the Serbian government to believe that they need to protect the Serbian minority in the country. Serbian members of the Loyal Kosovo Army have formed a rebel group called the Renegade Kosovo Force (RKF) whose intent is to create the conditions for revolution and overthrow the LKG government. It has been reported that the RKF have committed atrocities against non-Serbian ethnic populations.
The following fault lines, if exploited, have the potential to contribute to instability in the Pristina OE:
Lack of Security. The devolvement of the Kosovo government has led to an exponentially dire security situation. Reports indicate escalating violence between ethnic groups, with unconfirmed reports of the Renegade Kosovo Army conducting violent acts against civilian groups. Police stations located throughout Pristina are operating at 50% capacity, and violence in Glogovac has overwhelmed the local law enforcement.
Fault Lines
are “exploitable sources of instability in the human domain; they can be real or perceived.”
Source: GCKN Fault Line Methodology, 2017
Ethnic Contention. Pristina is 95% ethnic Albanian, 3% Serbian, and 2% Macedonian. All three groups are committing violence within the city, and all three use propaganda to reinforce their own positions to muster support. The Kosovo Albanians practice a secular form of Islam and support US operations, however they will wholly support Albanian military action should it occur, as it is their primary protection from ethnic violence and oppression.
Degraded Essential Services. Collapsed central government. Town council in Pristina dissolved. Police stations operating at 50% capacity, fire stations operational but workers unpaid. Degraded public transportation capabilities. NGOs located in Pristina are the ICRC, United Nations High Commission Refugees, and Doctors without Borders.
FAULT
LINES
(if exploited)
Assessment of Impact
Pristina, Kosovo
Probability
Consequence
Highly
Unlikely
Improbable
Probable
Very
Likely
Extreme
Major
Moderate
Minor
High
Risk 1 3
Significant Risk
1 Lack of Security
Significant
Probable with major consequence 2
Moderate
Risk
2 Ethnic Contention
Significant
Improbable with major consequence
Low
Risk
3 Degraded Essential Services
Moderate
Probable with major consequence
Pervasiveness, Importance & Recovery
Implications:
The failure of LKG governance has led to a power vacuum that, if US does not intervene, could be filled by the Serbian or Albanian governments. The ethnic tensions have increased to such a point that, if fault lines are exploited by either stakeholder, it would lead to a genocide of the opposing ethnic group in Kosovo. 1
Lack of
Security
Pervasiveness
Importance
Recovery 2
Ethnic Contention
Pervasiveness
Importance
Recovery 3
Degraded Essential Services
Pervasiveness
Importance
Recovery
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR TRAINING PURPOSES ONLY

2. UNCLASSIFIED//FOR TRAINING PURPOSES ONLY
Pristina, with a population of 200,000 is approx. 95% Albanian and 3% Serbian, is the seat for the national government. Serbians used to make up 25% of the population in Pristina prior to the Kosovo War in the early 1990’s. This area contains the National Assembly building, which is equivalent to the US Capitol building.
A Fault Line Analysis is our methodology for identifying unstable and exploitable conditions within an OE.
Kosovo Serbians resent the Albanian dominate government and wish to secede from Kosovo to join Serbia. They are primarily Orthodox Christian and are neutral to hostile towards the US.
Kosovo Albanians hold the majority of government seats and are pro-independent Kosovo. Prior NATO efforts have led to a positive stigma of US forces; however, Albanian intervention prior to US action may lead to a transfer of trust to only Albania efforts.
Kosovo Macedonians favor an independent Kosovo state and are generally neutral to supportive of US efforts.
Ethnic
Albanian
Population
Ethnic
Serbian
Population
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR TRAINING PURPOSES ONLY