1. Energy Task Force Presentation
Nishnawbe Aski Nation
Energy Task Force Presentation

2. AGENDA Load forecast update Thermal Generation Shifting requirements
Load forecasts
Variables
IESO-ETF Low Medium & High water
Thermal Generation
Atikokan
Thunder Bay
Conversion to biomass
Recommendation

3. 25 New Mines

4. CVNW Load Forecast Update

5. Shifting Requirements
2004
2012

6. IESO Load Forecast

7. ETF-IESO Load Forecast

8. ETF-IESO Load Forecast
320 MW

9. VARIABLES

10. Water Power Uncertainty
DROUGHT EVERY 4 YEARS ON AVERAGE

11. Water Power Uncertainty
El NINO EVERY 4 YEARS ON AVERAGE

12. Weather IMpacts

13. Weather Impacts
Nav Canada identifies both Winter and Summer storms move from west to east through Northwestern Ontario
International regulations require one of the two east-west tie line circuits to come off line as an electrical storm approaches and passes through – STORM LIMITED. Eliminates 175 MW of capacity.

14. Storm Limited

15. Storm Limited

16. East West Tie Broke in 2011 X

17. 2020 to 2025 ETF tracking of data up to 2020
Data for 2020 to 2025 to be determined in Winter of 2016
2020+ projection averaged over 5 years (at 20% per year) to obtain specific projections for that period

21. MEDIUM WATER - STORM LIMITED
IESO-ETF COMPARISON
MEDIUM WATER - STORM LIMITED

22. MEDIUM WATER - STORM LIMITED
IESO-ETF COMPARISON
MEDIUM WATER - STORM LIMITED

23. MEDIUM WATER - STORM LIMITED
IESO-ETF COMPARISON
MEDIUM WATER - STORM LIMITED

27. Next Steps Technical Meeting January-February
IESO Staff
Technical component of ETF
Detailed review of projections
Mine by mine
Year by year
To identify areas of disagreement and determine how best to resolve them

28. QUESTIONS

29. Thermal Generation 2015 Output Requirement for Thermal Atikokan
Thunder Bay
Thermal Urgency
Thermal Conclusion
Biomass Option Review
Recommendation

30. Atikokan Generating Station

31. Atikokan GS Output

32. Atikokan GS Production %

33. Atikokan GS (L/M/H) YEAR ETF IESO –Reference IESO - High 2016
200/102/0
200/74/0
200/200/0
2017
200/197/0
200/121/0
2018
200/200/200
200/179/0
2019
200/200/118
2020
0/0/0
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025

34. Thermal Requirements Atikokan GS needs to operate at capacity by:
Continuing to run biomass at 90,000 tonnes per year
Expanding the biomass contract volume to meet projected demand (mix of storage top up and just in time delivery)
Adding advanced biomass to the fuel mix
Ultimate goal is 200 MW continuous output
Total input of 500,000 tonnes per year

35. Thermal Urgency Atikokan GS must Expand biomass in 2016
Lead time for producers to secure local wood supply
Lead time for producers to ramp up production and just in time delivery
Alternative is to import from outside region
Add advanced biomass by 2018
Following constraining of biomass system
Lower cost than expanding storage
Lead time for producers to secure wood supply
Lead time for producers to construct processing facilities

36. Thunder bay Generating Station

37. Thunder Bay GS Output

38. Thunder Bay GS Production %

39. Thunder Bay GS (L/M/H) YEAR ETF IESO –Reference IESO - High 2016
165/0/0
133/0/0
134/0/0
2017
260/0/0
137/0/0
138/6/0
2018
300/300/200
184/0/0
187/37/81
2019
242/0/0
269/180/237
2020
300/132/200
0/0/0
2021
300/240/200
2022
2023
2024
2025

40. Thermal Conclusion Thunder Bay GS needs to be converted to OR
Natural Gas
2 units OR
Advanced biomass
Second Unit

41. Conversion to biomass

44. + Manitoba

61. Fueling Options for TBGS
Component
Natural Gas
Advanced Biomass
Capital Cost
$120 Million inc gas
$10 Million
Conversion Time
24-36 months
12 months/24 to build suppliers
Fuel Supply
From main line ($60 million)
Local/regional supply
Fuel Storage
Expensive and in S. ONT
On site - in open
Energy Impact
Greenhouse gas producer
80-90% less GHG than gas
Fuel Cost
Variable with long term contracts
competitive
Carbon Tax
Will apply
Will be Exempt
Economic Benefits
Construction + ongoing operation
New manufacturing facilities + harvesting + transportation + ongoing operation
Staff levels
50-60
Load Range
Full /variable load

62. Integrated Regional Resource Plan (IRRP)
5 Planning Areas
1 completed
1 almost completed
3 just commencing

63. NWO Planning

64. Remote Communities IRRP Near Completion

65. North of Dryden IRRP DONE

66. Transmission Projects from Dryden

67. Greenstone-Marathon IRRP
+ Thermal Upgrade to existing radial line
+ voltage sourced compensation to existing radial line

68. Pickle Lake Upgrade IESO recommends
230 KV line from East of Dryden
Urgent need for development
IESO monitoring work of two First Nation led consortiums

69. W-Power Central Corridor Energy Group Goldcorp
AECOM, in association with PowerTel and Deutsche Bank
Leave to Construct – August 2015

70. Sagatay Transmission L.P.
Partners
Mishkeegogamang First Nation,
the Ojibway Nation of Saugeen
Morgan Geare.
Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.

71. West of Thunder Bay IRRP

72. Thunder Bay IRRP

73. Greenstone-Marathon IRRP
Accelerated Planning Process

74. Greenstone-Marathon IRRP
112 MW+
post 2020
(inc RoF)

75. Structure One Local Advisory Committee (LAC) for each IRRP area
Recruitment for Greenstone – Marathon underway
Recruitment for Thunder Bay and West of Thunder Bay to commence soon

76. Transmission Issues

77. East-West Tie Enhancement
Delayed until 2020

78. Bulk Transmission Expansion

79. Planning Sequencing

80. 25 New Mines

81. Planning Sequencing

82. QUESTIONS