1. Aarti Shankar Policy Analyst, Open Europe
The Politics of Brexit
Aarti Shankar
Policy Analyst, Open Europe

2. Overview of Brexit
Joint UK-EU objective to secure a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement – perhaps unexpected starting point to negotiations
Success for the UK – striking a balance between minimal disruption to EU relations and ensuring the UK can shape its own trade and regulatory policy post-Brexit
Structure of the negotiations is clearer – but political obstacles at many turns
Domestic politics in Europe will shape the way to Brexit

3. What are the UK’s Brexit objectives?
‘Deep and special partnership’ – comprehensive Free Trade Agreement
Out of the Single Market
Out of the EU’s Common External Tariff and Common Commercial Policy
PMs red-lines: lower immigration, abandon high budget payments, remove supremacy of ECJ
Achieve parallel negotiations to increase leverage
Implementation period for customs, immigration policy etc.

4. Why the UK should focus on customs cooperation
Leaving the EUCU is central to fulfilling the PMs stated objectives
Alternative options:
Separate customs union
Sectoral customs union
Parallel tariffs
Associate membership
Half-in, half-out models fail to provide the freedom necessary to take Brexit opportunities and offset Brexit costs
UK-EU must conclude customs cooperation agreements to minimise trade disruption outside EUCU

5. How will the negotiations play out?
The EU must establish its negotiating directives among the institutions
EU side will be led by the European Council
The place of the European Parliament will be limited to consent
Withdrawal negotiations to start next month, longer term negotiations expected to start this Autumn
Ratification process expected to start October 2018

6. What are the key sticking points in the negotiation?
Brussels’ opening gambit of a €60bn Brexit divorce bill
The role of the ECJ in post-Brexit arbitration
The UK’s ability to rapidly grandfather existing EU FTAs with third countries
Transitional arrangements

7. The politics of Brexit Is no deal better than a bad deal?
Does the EU have a right to demand an exit payment?
Can the open Irish border be maintained?
Does the EU have an incentive to punish the UK?
Is Brexit a simple trade-off between markets and immigration?

8. The politics of Europe
UK general election result could have an effect on Britain’s negotiating power
PM will have more freedom of manoeuvre to establish a transitional arrangement
Not clear that this means a “softer Brexit”
Upcoming EU elections could change the structure of these negotiations
New Franco-German engine behind the EU – could this help the EU breathe a sigh of relief?