1. Future precipitation change over Panama projected by 20-km mesh atmospheric global model
Shoji KUSUNOKI
Meteorological Research Institute (MRI)
Climate Research Department
JAPAN
Climate change studies using dynamical downscaling applications: Panama case, September 2017,
Panama City, Panama
Acknowledgment :This work was conducted under the framework of "Integrated Research Program for Advanced Climate Modeling" supported by the TOUGOU Program of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT) of Japan.
C:\Users\skusunok\Documents\学会とWS\ _Panama\Kusunoki_ _rainV2.ppt

2. Experimental design

3. Present-day: 1983-2003, 21 years Name Grid size Cumulus convection
Sea surface temperature (SST)
Ensemble size
SPYS
20km
Yoshimura (YS)
Historical observation 2
HPYS
60km ２
HPAS
Arakawa-Schubert (AS)
HPKF
Kein-Fritsch (KF)

4. Sea Surface Temperature: CMIP5
Future: , 21 years, RCP8.5
Grid size
Cumulus convection
Sea Surface Temperature: CMIP5
Cluster0
MME
Cluster1
Cluster2
Cluster3
20km YS
SFYSC0
SFYSC1
SFYSC2
SFYSC3
60km
HFYSC0
HFYSC1
HFYSC2
HFYSC3 AS
HFASC0
HFASC1
HFASC2
HFASC3 KF
HFKFC0
HFKFC1
HFKFC2
HFKFC3
RCP: Representative Concentration Pathway

5. Sea surface temperature (SST)
Future change by 28 CMIP5 AOGCM models
CMIP5: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5
AOGCM: Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model

6. Present-day climate

7. Annual precipitation Present-day 1979-2003 OBS 20km 60km 180km
1.0deg
2.5deg
2.5deg
0.25deg
OBS
20km
60km
180km
YS scheme
AS scheme
KF scheme

8. Annual precipitation OBS Present-day 1979-2003 CMIP5 models
2.5deg
1.0deg
2.5deg
0.25deg
Present-day
CMIP5 models
60km to 300km

9. □ Skill Annual precipitation RMSE Bias 〇 Contour: Taylor skill sore S
S:20km
H:60km
L:180km
Red:YS
Orange:AS
Blue:KF
RMSE
Bias
MRI-AGCM 〇
MME: Multi-Model Ensemble
OBS □
AVM: Average of individual model skill
Contour: Taylor skill sore S
CMIP5 Model
OBS

10. Future change
21 years
RCP8.5

11. July precipitation 20 km model Present-day 1979-2003 Observation
Future
RCP8.5
Change = (F – P)/P %

12. - + Change July Average Sea Surface Temperature (F-P)/P
Cluster 0　 　 　　
20km YS
60km YS
60km AS
60km KF
Average　of 60km models - +

13. Cumulus or SST? July Analysis Of Variance (ANOVA)
Precipitation change is sensitive to cumulus convection scheme.　　

14. Change
Average of
20, 60km models

15. Water vapor transport change
Arrow :
Vertically integrated water vapor flux
Color : Convergence

16. July change
Precipitation change is mainly caused by convergence of water vapor flux.
Arrow :
Vertically integrated water vapor flux
Color : Convergence

17. Regional average precipitation

18. Target area
( W, N)

19. Present-day climate
Observation
Pentad (5-day average)
precipitation

20. Present-day and future
Black: Present-day
Color: Future
60km
20km
Present-day

21. Change Black : 20km YS Red : 60km YS Blue : 60km AS Green : 60km KF
●　95% significant

22. All average Observation Present-day Present-day Future Change
●　95% significant

23. Extreme events

24. Extreme precipitation events
Maximum 5 day precipitation
Annual precipitation
Maximum consecutive dry days
Maximum 1 day precipitation precipitation

25. Summary
1. Reproducibility of precipitation over Panama by MRI-AGCM is better than CMIP5 models.
2. Precipitation increase in central and eastern part of Panama in rainy season.
3. Precipitation change is caused by convergence of water vapor transport from Caribbean Sea.
Increase of intense precipitation is larger than moderate and weak precipitation.
5. Possibility of drought will increase.
6. Water resource management should be changed in the future.