1. Impact of Brexit on commissioning and procurement of social care
Gareth Davies
25 November 2016

2. Impact of Brexit?

3. The phoney war Since the referendum on 23 June: New government
10% fall in value of £ (1.30 down to 1.17 euros)
8% rise in FTSE 100 (6338 to 6833)
Interest rates at record low of 0.25%
OBR forecast £59bn hit to borrowing from Brexit by 2021
Reported increases in hate crime

4. Nature of the change
The attribution problem - plenty of other effects were already in play and remain highly relevant e.g. austerity, banking system weakness, tech-driven disruption, ageing population, climate change
Direct changes
trade
migration
UK contribution to EU budget
EU funding
EU directives and regulations
Indirect impacts
economic
constitutional
social and cultural

5. Impact on public services
Funding
Demand
Staff
Cost
In a changed legal and constitutional framework

6. Impact on health and social care
Key risks
staff shortages
rising costs (wage rates, pension deficits)
impact on funding of any slowdown in the national or local economy (plus lost EU funding in some areas)
impact on demand of returning pensioners
Key opportunities
reshape procurement rules to support outcome-focused commissioning
expand training for care and nursing staff
Brexit NHS dividend!

7. Focus on procurement
Don’t overestimate the likely pace or extent of change in the procurement framework
EU procurement directives have been incorporated into UK law (Public Contract Regulations 2015), so the default option is that, even after leaving the EU, our procurement law remains unchanged
Other areas of legal reform post-Brexit may be higher priority for legislators
Even if the current regulations are repealed, the objectives of probity, fairness and value for money remain relevant
If commissioners see advantage in reform of procurement law, the case needs to be made

8. Questions for discussion
Are there other risks or opportunities arising from Brexit that could affect outcomes for the people you serve?
Do you have the right information on how the social care market in your area is being and will be affected?
What are the strengths and weaknesses of current procurement practice? Which of these relate to the legal framework and which to how it is used?
Is there an appetite to make the case for procurement law reform?