1. The Gender Dynamics of Employment Generation and Growth in a Globalizing World
Stephanie Seguino, University of Vermont
Elissa Braunstein, Colorado State University

2. 3 key global gender trends
Educational gender gaps substantially narrowed
Far less improvement in gender employment gap – but progress
Gender job segregation has worsened.
It is this puzzle we seek to explain in our paper.

3. But closure of employment gaps lagging: F/M Employment-to-Population Rates, 15+

4. Gender conflictive employment gains: F/M employment ratio rising as male employment rates fall

5. And job segregation is increasing: Women’s relative concentration in industrial sector employment, developing countries, 1991 and 2010

6. Regional trends in F/M employment and job segregation

7. Two questions
1. What are macro-structural causes of greater job segregation?
2. Does increased gender job segregation hurt men as well as women by depressing the labor share of income?

8. Macro-structural trends at work
Structural change (premature deindustrialization, rising K/L, growing shortage of good jobs)
Inequality has dampened demand/limited job growth
Rising F/M LFPR
Result: intensified job competition shaped by gender stratification

9. Under conditions of job scarcity and thus rationing…
Access to good jobs influenced by processes of stratification—in particular hoarding and exclusion.
Results in dual labor market process of women’s exclusion from good jobs and “crowding” into lower quality jobs.

10. Trends in industrial employment as a share of total employment, 1991-2014

11. Econometric Analysis: Determinants of women’s relative share of industrial sector jobs
4 sets of factors
Structural transformation and technological change
Structural and policy consequences of hyperglobalization
Overall growth
Labor Supply changes
(panel data, 1990 to 2013)

12. Assessing gender-based exclusion in the context of structural change, globalization and growth in developing countries,
Factor
Impact on women’s relative access to good jobs
Structural transformation and the gender inclusivity of technological change
Industrial employment as a share of total employment
Positive: Industrial value added matters a lot less
Higher capital intensity of production
Negative: Given gender stereotypes and segregation, technological change may hurt women’s access to better jobs
Structural and policy consequences of globalization
Stronger fiscal policy stances
Positive: Austerity detracts from gender equality
Net (not total) exports of manufactures
Positive: Domestic value added in exports matter, FDI doesn’t
Tariffs
Positive: Less trade liberalization enhances women’s access
Economic growth
Per capita GDP growth
No effect: Failure of growth to produce sufficient employment also a failure for gender equality
Women’s relative access to good jobs = the share of industrial jobs in (women’s employment/men’s employment)
Women’s involvement in markets
Increasing women’s labor force participation
Negative: Given the limited supply of good jobs, associated with increased gender segregation and crowding into bad jobs

13. Are men also hurt by gender job segregation?
Our main arguments are:
Gender job segregation may influence labor’s BP
Core sector jobs, dominated by men, are increasingly rationed
Poor working conditions of women’s jobs in peripheral sector communicate to men the “cost” of job loss if they lose privileged positions in the core sector
This weakens their fallback positions & BP in the industrial sector, depressing wages & making it difficult to capture benefits of productivity growth.
Thus greater job segregation decline in labor share of income.

14. Econometrics: Labor share of income a function of:
Women’s share of industrial sector jobs (-)
F/M LFPR
Industrial employment as % of GDP
Industrial share value added
K/L ratio
Inward FDI/GDP
Weighted tariffs
G consumption/ GDP
Real interest rates
Method: Fixed effects and 2SLS regressions

15. Results: Statistically significant variables only
Fixed Effects
2SLS
F share ind. emp
0.08
0.14
Ind. value-added/GDP
-0.18
-0.26
Weighted tariffs
0.04
G cons/GDP
0.16
0.17
*Women’s share of industrial sector jobs may be endogenous, hence 2SLS. Instruments are lagged values of women’s industrial concentration and net mfg. exports/GDP.

16. Conclusions
Due to declining no. of good jobs, women's increased employment has led to their integration on inferior terms.
This worsens overall inequality by lowering the labor share of income with negative effects for aggregate demand and growth.
What progress we have seen in increased relative female employment is thus gender conflictive.

17. Implications of results
Crowding hurts men’s access to employment – effect is large
decline in F/M ind. employment led contributed to 4% of decline of labor share from 1991 to 2010
Falling labor share cannot be attributed to increased F/M LFPR that squeezes men out of jobs
Expansive fiscal policies and less trade liberalization raise labor shares.