1. Science and global environmental politics
Acid Rain
Stratospheric Ozone Depletion

2. Science, Uncertainty & Risk
The authority of science
Modern notion of progress
“Knowledge is power”
Perceived neutrality (fact/value)
Uncertainty: incomplete information
Risk: probability of an undesirable event
Risk assessment
Cost-benefit analysis
Probabilistic; money is the measure
Risk perception and risk cultures
Policy Qs
How much certainty do we need?
Which risks to mitigate? How? Who decides?
POL S 384 Lec 9

3. Why science does not generate rational policy
Scientific consensus is rare
“Facts” must be interpreted
Scientists are rarely advocates
Much policy is not based on science
Risk of information overload
Scientific agenda is political decision
What counts as knowledge?
“Other” knowledges
POL S 384 Lec 9

4. Acid Rain Backdrop: Cold War, urban pollution policies
Lead states: Nordic countries
Laggard states: Germany, U.K., Poland
Conv. on Long-Range Transport of Air Pollution (1979)
German forest death  30% Club (SO2)
“Forecaring principle”
Subsequent protocols
Nitrogen oxides
Persistent Organic Pollutants
Heavy Metals
US & Canada on acid rain
China?
POL S 384 Lec 9

5. Precautionary Principle
Under threat to human health or envt, precautions should be taken even without full scientific proof of causality.
“Ounce of prevention is worth pound of cure”
Embryonic principle of international law
Shifts burden of proof
Promotes foresight, humility, recognition of interdependence
POL S 384 Lec 9

6. Ozone Depletion: Agenda Setting
CFCs: the “miracle compound”
Non-toxic, chemically inert, many uses
Few makers (DuPont is #1)
Stratospheric ozone
O3 absorbs UV, which causes
skin cancer, cataracts, phytoplankton death…
1974 discovery: CFCs destroy ozone
1978: U.S., Canada, Nordic aerosol ban
: fact-finding, little action
POL S 384 Lec 9

7. Science in the Ozone Negotiations
Vienna Convention (1985)
Antarctic ozone hole (1986)
Cause unknown; CFCs suspected
Negotiators advised to ignore it
Models predicted 7% ozone loss by 2050
Montreal Protocol (1987)
U.S. vs. E.U.; virtually no DC participation
IC’s to cut CFCs in half by 2000
DC’s can increase CFC use for 10 years
POL S 384 Lec 8

8. How did the ozone hole have an effect?
Opened door to new way of framing the knowledge
“Chlorine-loading”
Emerged when chlorine concentrations reached 2 ppb
Stabilizing Cl required 85% reduction
U.S. position: 95% cutback
Montreal Protocol was not enough
POL S 384 Lec 9

9. Beyond Montreal Amendments: 2/3 vote, majority of IC’s & DC’s
Binding on dissenters: sovereignty?
1988: New Science
Arctic “hole”
Antarctic hole linked to CFCs
Global ozone losses
1990s: CFC substitutes & Multilateral Fund
Necessity for DC participation
India & China to consume 1/3 CFCs by 2008
Grand bargain: participation for development aid
POL S 384 Lec 8

10. Amending Montreal Copenhagen, 1992: phaseout by 1996
London, 1990: CFC phaseout by 2000
Plus carbon tetrachloride & methyl chloroform
Multilateral ozone fund
Copenhagen, 1992: phaseout by 1996
Phase out HCFCs by 2030
Bangkok, 1993: phase out methyl bromide
Beijing, 1999: HCFC 1989 levels
IC’s ban by 2004; DC’s by 2016
2010 ~ Total phase-out of CFCs, halons and carbon tetrachloride in developing countries
Compliance, black market
POL S 384 Lec 8

11. Coming Attractions
2015 ~ Total phase-out of methyl chloroform and methyl bromide in developing countries.
2030 ~ Total phase-out of HCFCs in developed countries.
2040 ~ Total phase-out of HCFCs in developing countries
POL S 384 Lec 8

12. Kigali Agreement (2016) POL S 384 Lec 9
Source:
POL S 384 Lec 9

13. Montreal Protocol Effectiveness
The shining example of green diplomacy
Ozone hole
1986: 14 million km : 28 million km2
Chlorine loading near its peak
2014: smaller for the first time
2017: smallest since 1988
Predicted to be normal mid-century
Multilateral ozone fund
Roughly $4 billion,
Very effective
POL S 384 Lec 8

14. Relationship & contrast to climate change
Science-led protocol amendment process
Norms of universal participation and “common but differentiated responsibility”
U.S. demands “universal participation” on climate change
Scientists increasingly outspoken
Small industry vs. glue of global economy
Availability of profitable substitutes
POL S 384 Lec 8