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2.  Introduction  Indian Leadership’s Rhetoric  Causes of CFVs  Solutions/Options for Pakistan  Conclusion 2

3.  Cross-border firing by the border security forces targeting each others military personnel and civilian population.  Results in loss of life and property on both sides  The Ceasefire Pact-2003 - an important CBM suspended in 2013 by India  1300 ceasefire violation in 2017 only  January 2018 (up to 21 st January) saw a sharp spike of 134 instances. 3

4. Indian Official DataPakistani Official Data YearCFVsCasualtiesCFVsCasualties 2001 4,134–– – 2002 5,767–– – 2003 2,841–11 – 2004 4–6 – 2005 6–9 – 2006 3–9 1 2007 21318 – 2008 86630 – 2009 35646 – 2010 705113 – 2011 623104 2 2012 1144252 2 2013 3475464 5 2014 5833315 3 2015 40510248 16 2016 44913382 38 2017 3611300 52 4 Source: US Institute of Peace (USIP)

5. Indian PM Narendra Modi’s statements:  “There is one country in Asia which exports terrorism to other countries”.  “When news about terrorism comes, news also follows that either the terrorist came from there or like Osama went there after the act”.  “India has been successful in isolating you, globally and we will intensify our efforts to make sure that you are isolated globally”. 5

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7.  Longest rolling Kashmir dispute  Decisions at the central government and national political mood.  Attitude of political leaders often escalates CFVs. Raghavan, former IHC says,  “ CFVs are often a way for the Pakistan army to send a message to its political leaders: don’t go too far on India.” 7

8.  Military leadership attitude:  Indian COAS Gen Rawat said : “ We will call the [nuclear] bluff of Pakistan. If we will have to really confront the Pakistanis, and a task is given to us, we are not going to say we cannot cross the border because they have nuclear weapons. We will have to call their nuclear bluff,”  “Testing the new boys”  “Cold Start” Military doctrine 8

9.  India has long and consistently argued that a major reason for ceasefire violations is the attempt by Pakistan-based terrorists to infiltrate J&K, accusing Pakistani forces of initiating covering fire for those seeking to cross the border. 9

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11.  Involve Russia to mediate on disputes between both the states.  Restore and implement Ceasefire Accord 2003  Exchange of military delegations & participation in military seminars.  Facilitate visits between the two Staff Colleges and National Defense Colleges to promote discussion, cooperation, and collaboration.  Increase flag meetings between local commanders of BSF and Rangers. 11

12.  Provide for regular biannual meetings of DGMOs.  Positive debate on media of both sides  Heavy mortars and artillery guns to be 30km away from the LOC & IB in the Jammu-Sialkot sector.  System for evacuation of civilians who live in the area. 12

13. 13  Deteriorated relations between nuclear-armed rivals are dangerous for both countries as well as for the region.  Constructive dialogue and quiet along the borders are strongly correlated

14. It is high time for both the nations to solve all chronic conflicts for durable peace and stability in the region 14

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