2. Decision support for watershed assessment, protection and restoration Keith M. Reynolds Scott D. Peets USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Four dimensions of integration

3. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Chewaucan integrated assessment Within scale Within scale Concurrent evaluation of upland, riparian, and in- channel attributes relative to stream reach and watershed condition. Concurrent evaluation of upland, riparian, and in- channel attributes relative to stream reach and watershed condition. Across scale Across scale Linking evaluations over spatial scales. Linking evaluations over spatial scales. Comparing evaluations over time. Comparing evaluations over time. Across phases of adaptive management Across phases of adaptive management Going from assessment to planning and implementation for protection and restoration. Going from assessment to planning and implementation for protection and restoration.

4. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Within scale: EMDS system EMDS = Ecosystem management decision support EMDS = Ecosystem management decision support EMDS goals and objectives EMDS goals and objectives Improve the efficiency with which assessments are conducted Improve the efficiency with which assessments are conducted o Optimize use of information Improve the quality of assessment products Improve the quality of assessment products o More comprehensive analysis o Better integration of diverse topics

5. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Adaptivemanagementcycle Monitor Plan Act Evaluate Goals Knowledge Technology Inventory Revised goals New knowledge Inventory New technology EMDS in adaptive management

6. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Knowledge bases EMDS is an ArcView extension that integrates knowledge-based reasoning into GIS EMDS is an ArcView extension that integrates knowledge-based reasoning into GIS A KB is a meta database A KB is a meta database A formal logical representation of how to evaluate information A formal logical representation of how to evaluate information Numerous, diverse topics can be analyzed within a single knowledge base Numerous, diverse topics can be analyzed within a single knowledge base Integrated analysis Integrated analysis

7. Knowledge base of networks Concern Ecostate Link = Network Concern Etc. Data

8. Knowledge base processing Concern Ecostate Link Get data requirements Evaluate data

9. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Forms of uncertainty Probabilistic Probabilistic Uncertainty of events Uncertainty of events Linguistic Linguistic Lofti Zadeh, 1966 Lofti Zadeh, 1966 Uncertainty about the definition of the event Uncertainty about the definition of the event A proposition is the smallest unit of thought to which one can assign a measure of truth A proposition is the smallest unit of thought to which one can assign a measure of truth Truth values Truth values Indices that quantify the degree of support for a proposition provided by its premises Indices that quantify the degree of support for a proposition provided by its premises

10. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Fuzzy membership functions

11. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Chewaucan basin: a multi-scale example Prototyping watershed assessment for the evaluation monitoring program of the NWFP Aquatic Conservation Strategy: dealing with multiple scales and making the process more consistent.

12. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Sequence of steps in assessment and priority setting. Evaluate reaches Summarize reach condition to watershed scale Evaluate watersheds Set priorities for watershed protection & restoration Set priorities for reach protection & restoration

13. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Analysis strategy Synthesis upward from reaches to watersheds Synthesis upward from reaches to watersheds Watershed assessment includes reach evaluations Watershed assessment includes reach evaluations Length-weighted average of reach index scores Length-weighted average of reach index scores Priority setting for protection and restoration is a step-down process Priority setting for protection and restoration is a step-down process Prioritize watersheds, considering feasibility and efficacy Prioritize watersheds, considering feasibility and efficacy Prioritize reaches, given watershed priority, and additional feasibility and efficacy criteria Prioritize reaches, given watershed priority, and additional feasibility and efficacy criteria

14. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Watersheds and reaches evaluated

15. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Reach level knowledge base The logic specification of a proposition: The proposition of suitable reach condition evaluates as true to the degree that its underlying premises are true.

16. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Reach knowledge base design continued A computed datum evaluated against a fuzzy membership function that is dynamically defined. In-channel depends on several reach attributes …

17. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Evaluating the in-channel network The in-channel topic is a premise of reach condition. KB structure is modular and well suited to evolutionary design of complex models.

18. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Evaluation of reach condition Maps are the basic products of an EMDS assessment, but …

19. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Interpreting map products … a knowledge base can also explain the derivation of its conclusions with graphic, intuitive logic diagrams that show the evaluated state of a knowledge base.

20. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Navigating the logic The entire logic structure and all documentation is easily accessible to the user and others who may want to understand the why.

21. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Frequency of missing reach data EMDS is logic-based, and can reason with incomplete information.

22. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Influence of missing reach data The influence of data on the logical completeness of an assessment is highly dynamic.

23. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Frequency of reach index scores A snapshot in time that can be compared across assessments with standard statistical tests such as K-S.

24. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Summary of reach evaluations Watershed Aggregate reach index Bear Creek 0.10 Ben Young Creek 0.33 Chewaucan River -0.10 Coffeepot Creek 0.40 Dairy Creek 0.29 Elder Creek 0.39 Morgan Creek 0.06 South Creek -0.07 Swamp Creek 0.20 Reach condition indices are aggregated over watersheds for input to the watershed scale analysis. 1.0 = true 1.0 = true -1.0 = false

25. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Evaluating watershed condition The knowledge base operates at the watershed scale, but …

26. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Linkage to the fine scale … integrates synthesized reach-level data from the reach scale analysis. The synthesis is a formal specification for cross- scale linkage of analyses.

27. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Watershed condition The index expresses the degree to which data and logical antecedents (e.g., premises) support the proposition. Watershed condition depends on: upland condition passage barriers stream condition

28. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Upland condition: premise 1 This, and next two slides show the state of primary premises underlying evaluation of watershed condition. Upland condition depends on: canopy density road density

29. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Passage condition: premise 2 Passage condition was expressed as percent of main stem stream length accessible to fish.

30. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Stream condition: premise 3 Stream condition depends on: reach condition riparian vegetation bank stability w/d ratio pool frequency large wood spawning fines water temperature

31. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Summary of limiting factors by watershed Watershed Stream condition Upland condition Passage barriers Bear Ben Young Chewaucan Coffeepot Dairy Elder Morgan South Swamp

32. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Setting priorities for watershed protection and restoration An AHP model for WS restoration, based on results of the EMDS assessment. Some data re-evaluated with respect to their influence on feasibility and efficacy.

33. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Results of watershed priority model Priority strategy: Save the best and fix the rest.

34. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Explanation of watershed priorities How primary criteria in the AHP model contribute to the total priority score for a watershed.

35. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Testing sensitivity of WS priority model In this example, a 13.4% change in the weight on the WS condition criterion would lead to a change in ordering of priorities.

36. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Reach restoration priority models Common criteria Common criteria Watershed priority and reach condition Watershed priority and reach condition Forested reaches Forested reaches Feasibility: bank stability, large wood and pool frequency Feasibility: bank stability, large wood and pool frequency Efficacy: vegetation similarity Efficacy: vegetation similarity Non-forested reaches Non-forested reaches Feasibility: bank stability Feasibility: bank stability Efficacy: pool frequency and veg similarity Efficacy: pool frequency and veg similarity

37. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Setting priorities – forested reaches An AHP model for reach restoration, based on results of the EMDS assessment. Some data re-evaluated with respect to their influence on feasibility and efficacy. (Efficacy)

38. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Protection and restoration priorities, forested reaches Priority strategy: Save the best and fix the rest.

39. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Contrib. of criteria, forested reaches

40. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Setting priorities, non-forested reaches (Feasibility)

41. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Restoration priorities, non-forest reaches

42. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Contrib. of criteria, non-forested reaches

43. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Analysis strategy (revisited) Synthesis upward from reaches to watersheds Synthesis upward from reaches to watersheds Watershed assessment includes reach evaluations Watershed assessment includes reach evaluations Length weighted average of reach index scores Length weighted average of reach index scores Priority setting for protection and restoration is a step-down process Priority setting for protection and restoration is a step-down process Prioritize watersheds, considering feasibility and efficacy Prioritize watersheds, considering feasibility and efficacy Prioritize reaches, given watershed priority, and additional feasibility and efficacy criteria Prioritize reaches, given watershed priority, and additional feasibility and efficacy criteria

44. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station keith reynolds Contact phone: 541-750-7434 phone: 541-750-7434 email: kreynolds@fs.fed.us email: kreynolds@fs.fed.us EMDS website EMDS website http://www.fsl.orst.edu/emds http://www.fsl.orst.edu/emds