2. 2014 - A Year of Changes Implementation of new farm bill
Policy changes in China
Cotton prices down 20%
Grain prices down 10%
Oil prices down more than 40%

3. U.S. Balance Sheet 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 Change Production 17.31
Million Bales
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
Change
Production
17.31
12.91
16.08
Mill Use
3.50
3.55
3.60
Exports
13.03
10.53
10.20
Stocks
3.80
2.45
4.70
Stocks/Use
23%
17%
34%

4. NCC Acreage Survey Distributed on Dec 17
Responses collected through Jan 16
Asked for acres of upland cotton, ELS cotton, corn, soybeans, wheat, other crops in ‘14 and intentions for ’15; also asked price expectations

5. Pre-Planting Market Signals
Cotton
Corn
Soybeans
Cot/Corn
Cot/Soy
2015
64.60¢
$4.25
$10.12
15.2
6.4
2014
78.57¢
$4.66
$11.44
16.9
6.9
2013
83.18¢
$5.70
$12.84
14.6
6.5
2012
92.08¢
$5.65
$12.59
16.3
7.3
2011
118.08¢
$5.88
$13.31
20.1
8.9
2010
73.70¢
$4.04
$9.37
18.3
7.9
2009
51.65¢
$4.17
$8.98
12.4
5.8

6. 2015 Southeast Acreage 2014 Actual 2015 Intended % Change Alabama 350
306
-12.5
Florida
107 82
-23.2
Georgia
1,380
1,259
-8.8
North Carolina
465
411
-11.5
South Carolina
280
246
-12.0
Virginia 87 81
-7.4
Southeast
2,669
2,386
-10.6
Total may not add due to rounding.

7. 2015 Mid-South Acreage 2014 Actual 2015 Intended % Change Arkansas 335
203
-39.4
Louisiana
170
140
-17.9
Mississippi
425
368
-13.5
Missouri
250
192
-23.3
Tennessee
275
176
-35.9
Mid-South
1,455
1,078
-25.9
Total may not add due to rounding.

8. 2015 Southwest Acreage 2014 Actual 2015 Intended % Change Kansas 31 26
-15.0
Oklahoma
240
225
-6.2
Texas
6,200
5,343
-13.8
Southwest
6,471
5,595
-13.5
Total may not add due to rounding.

9. 2015 West Acreage 2014 Actual 2015 Intended % Change Arizona 150 59
-60.4
California 57 35
-39.2
New Mexico 43 39
-8.3
West
250
134
-46.6
Total may not add due to rounding.

10. 2015 ELS Acreage 2014 Actual 2015 Intended % Change Arizona 15 36
140.5
California
155
174
12.3
New Mexico 5 7
31.4
Texas 17 19
12.7
ALL ELS
192
236
22.8
Total may not add due to rounding.

11. U.S. Cotton Production 13/14 14/15 15/16 Change Planted (Mil Ac) 10.41
11.04
9.43
-1.61
% Un-harvested
27.5%
12.0%
12.8%
Harvested (Mil Ac)
7.54
9.71
8.22
-1.49
Yield
821
795
817 22
Production (Mil Ba)
12.91
16.08
14.01
-2.07

12. U.S. Balance Sheet 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 Change Production 17.31
Million Bales
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
Change
Production
17.31
12.91
16.08
14.01
-2.07
Mill Use
3.50
3.55
3.60
Exports
13.03
10.53
10.20
Stocks
3.80
2.45
4.70
Stocks/Use
23%
17%
34%

13. U.S. Cotton Mill Use
3.71
3.60

14. U.S. Cotton Exports
% of Exports,
% of Exports,

15. China’s Cotton Policy Target price for Xinjiang at $1.45
Other provinces receive $0.15 per lb
Import quotas announced at 4.1 mil bales
Questions about management of current reserves

16. Fiber Prices
Support Price

17. China Balance Sheet 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 Change Production 35.0
Million Bales
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
Change
Production
35.0
32.8
30.0
28.3
-1.7
Mill Use
36.0
34.5
35.2
35.8
0.6
Imports
20.3
14.1
7.1
6.2
-0.9
Stocks
50.4
62.7
64.6
63.2
-1.4
Stocks/Use
140%
182%
183%
176%

18. Value of U.S. Apparel Imports

19. Other Issues of Note Turkey’s antidumping investigation
India’s minimum support price

20. World Cotton Trade ‘09-13 Avg 14/15 15/16 World Trade 41.21 34.14
Million Bales
‘09-13 Avg
14/15
15/16
World Trade
41.21
34.14
34.62
U.S. Exports
12.34
10.20
10.56
Trade Share
29.9%
30.5%

21. U.S. Balance Sheet 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 Change Production 17.31
Million Bales
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
Change
Production
17.31
12.91
16.08
14.01
-2.07
Mill Use
3.50
3.55
3.60
3.71
0.11
Exports
13.03
10.53
10.20
10.56
0.36
Stocks
3.80
2.45
4.70
4.45
-0.25
Stocks/Use
23%
17%
34%
31%

22. World Balance Sheet 13/14 14/15 15/16 Change Production 120.4 119.2
Million Bales
13/14
14/15
15/16
Change
Production
120.4
119.2
113.2
-6.0
Mill Use
109.1
111.1
113.7
2.6
Trade
40.6
34.1
34.6
0.5
Stocks
101.7
109.8
109.4
-0.4
China
62.7
64.6
63.2
-1.4
All Others
39.0
45.3
46.2
0.9

23. Cotton Prices

24. Final Thoughts
World production exceeds mill use but stocks outside of China increase
Issues to watch
U.S. exports for ’14 marketing year
Mill use in the current macroeconomic environment
Acreage response outside the U.S.