1. Adaptation Planning for Water Resources: the story of the Northern SWS
Professor Jane M Doolan
September 2014

2. Outline Sustainable Water Strategies The Drought and the Northern SWS
Environmental water and climate change
Conclusion

3. Objectives in Water Management
Effective management of water resources to meet future urban, rural and environmental needs
Improved efficiency of supply and use of water in cities and towns to improve liveability
A more productive, efficient and sustainable irrigation industry supported by improved irrigation infrastructure
Improved environmental condition of waterways supporting community needs
Improved governance arrangements for a high- performing and efficient water sector
Improved capacity to respond and adapt to a variable climate

4. Victorian Entitlement framework

5. Sustainable Water Strategies
understand threats to water availability including implications of climate change and variability
Ensure secure water entitlements for towns, industry, environment
Encourage economically viable and sustainable agriculture
where possible, improve health of rivers, wetlands and aquifers from impacts of drought, climate change and other risks
Improve choice and flexibility for entitlement holders to manage risk of climate variability
Want good environmental outcomes – whilst achieving outcomes for towns and agriculture
recognise it is a trade-off - environmental and socio-economic impacts
Full community process ( 2-3 years)
Clear, transparent evidence
Full stakeholder involvement throughout
Opportunities for public participation

6. Setting for the Northern SWS
10 years of below average rainfall
Drought/severe water shortages
Rapid and painful adjustment by water users to increased water scarcity
Water availability less than contemplated in:
Normal management rules
Drought response plans
The uncertainty of future climate change

7. Supply, Drought & Climate Change – River Murray inflows
The recent drought has resulted in a major reduction in runoff into our rivers and inflows into our major reservoirs.
This graph shows the considerable decline in inflows into the total River Murray system.
Previous studies of south-eastern Australia have shown that a decrease in rainfall can typically result in a two to three-fold decrease in runoff to our rivers.
However, inflows in the recent dry period have also been affected by the impacts of:
a reduction in inter-annual variability (i.e. loss of high rainfall years),
changes in seasonal rainfall patterns (with the biggest reduction, around 25%, being in autumn rainfall)
increased interception activity
increased bushfires resulting in less run-off in forested catchments
Increased evaporation due to high temperatures

8. 13 Years of Low Streamflows90 86 79 58 40 26 69 62 39 83 87 82 85 56 54 89 35 33 55 38 36 25 72 65 42
> high CC by 2055
~ medium-high CC by 2055
13 Years of Low Streamflows
Annual Streamflows Reduction (%) c.f. Long Term Average 8

9. What happened in the drought
Providing water for essential human needs
291(out of 436) Towns on stage 4 water restrictions (only indoor use)
Water carting to many small rural communities
Environmental flows in all major rivers were restricted
Campaspe River flows were about 20 times lower than natural flows
Irrigation
Irrigation allocations started at 0% and were less than 10% entitlement in spring - 1/3 all vines sacrificed, decisions about buying on market - debt
Environment
Previously supportive communities challenged environmental flows
Needed a clear rationale and ecological understanding for use of env water in drought
Not very much

10. The challenge – range of scenarios
Forecast of total inflows in the Murray system over next 50 years
A RANGE OF POSSIBLE WATER AVAILABILITY SCENARIOS IN THE FUTURE – WHAT IT MEANS FOR OVERALL MURRAY INFLOWS
This chart shows the modelled possible future availability of water that are used in the Draft Strategy. It looks at the overall impact.
The Draft Strategy uses CSIRO’s high, medium and low climate change scenarios. It also looks at a continuation of the past 11 years – a scenario worse than CSIROs high climate change.
The chart shows the range of possible water availability in the future on the Murray River. The left axis shows the change from the long term average. The bottom axis shows the possible impact over the next 50 years.
HIGHLIGHTS
The CSIRO high climate change scenario (green) shows for the Murray system, we would get a gradual reduction of up to 40% over 50 years.
A continuation of the past 11 years (the orange line at the bottom) would result in a 43% reduction compared to the long-term average. But the impacts would continue from now rather than gradually change over the next 50 years.
Its worth noting that a similar reduction to this occurred in south-west WA in the mid-1970s – where water availability was halved. They’re now experiencing a second ‘step change’ – a 65% reduction compared to long-term average.
The key message here is – there’s lots of uncertainty, so we need to be prepared for any of these scenarios.
These forecasts for the Murray are provided for the all major river systems in the Draft Strategy. The trends are the same but for some systems the impacts are less:
a continuation of past 11 years on the Kiewa and Ovens sees changes in inflows in the 20 to 30 % range
But for some systems is it significantly worse:
a continuation of the past 11 years for Campaspe and Loddon see decreases in inflows up to 70%.
So impacts are more as you head west.
NB. Increase in inflows expected due to contribution of Darling inflows to the Murray

11. The challenge under worst case
A RANGE OF POSSIBLE WATER AVAILABILITY SCENARIOS IN THE FUTURE – WHAT IT MEANS FOR USERS & THE ENVIRONMENT IN A NUMBER OF SYSTEMS
So if we took the worst case , a continuation of the past 11 years, from the previous page what would this mean for water availability for users and the environment?
You will see that for the Murray the ~42% decrease from the previous page would mean 15% less water each year for water users on the Murray – that’s 250 GL less a year:
That’s about the amount of HRWS held in the Pyramid-Boort Irrigation Area - a significant decrease!
Its even more significant for the environment, 51% less – or 2,000 GL
That’s the amount of environmental flows usually found each year in the Goulburn, Campaspe, Loddon and Broken combined!
Drought and climate change reduce water availability for the environment much more than water for users, because the majority of environmental water is from reservoir spills.
With less water, reservoirs will spill far less often.
For the other systems the decreases in volumes are less but the % decreases are even more.

12. What did it mean? Less reliable entitlements for all Urban water users
Longer, more frequent and more severe water restrictions
Irrigators
Zero allocations, no delivery of water, no effective carryover trade
Groundwater and upper catchment users
Increased time on restrictions/bans, increased groundwater use, less reliable farm dams, higher proportion of water captured in farm dams
Environment
Less frequent floods, loss of river red gum forest, fewer bird breeding events, fewer native fish, degraded wetlands
People knew what it meant – they were living it
REPLACE: similar slide

13. NRSWS Approach
A range of policy and investment decisions across urban, rural and environment
Built on existing policy directions and were the next evolutionary step
Consistent with the NWI
PUT SOME WATER ASIDE FROM THIS YEAR INTO NEXT TO LOWER CHANCES OF NOT BEING ABLE TO RUN DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM NEXT YEAR

14. NRSWS Approach
aimed at ensuring water management objectives could continue to be met
Supplement supply for env and users where possible
Would work under a drier/more variable future and provide certainty
Improved efficiency and encourage conservation across all sectors
Allowed entitlement holders to manage their own climate risk
Facilitated water market operation
Provide access to water under all conditions
New Seasonally adaptive environmental approach
Looked for multi-benefit solutions eg smart river operations, water savings from infrastructure projects
PUT SOME WATER ASIDE FROM THIS YEAR INTO NEXT TO LOWER CHANCES OF NOT BEING ABLE TO RUN DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM NEXT YEAR

15. Entitlements and Markets
Introduced Carry-over
Allows entitlement holders to carryover allocation into next year
Changed system reserve rules
Reduces likelihood of years with zero allocation
Reduces need for emergency intervention
Provided clearer entitlements for the environment and allowed more efficient use of environmental water
Credit-for-return flows
Improvements to Victorian water grid
Maximise flexibility in water trading market
Enables water to move from low to high value uses
New and Alternative Sources
Limited opportunities therefore not a solution

16. Urban
Must be able to supply a minimum level of service, including limiting time on restrictions and limited use of qualification of rights.
Planning looked at supplementing supply and managing demand
updated drought response plans
consistent and equitable restrictions
more flexible carryover and trade
Market access for community groups and businesses
Some use of alternative sources - recycled water, stormwater and groundwater
Augmentation – increased capital expenditure
Pipelines /interconnectors
New sources and trading for some regional urbans
expanded reticulated systems for D&S

17. Irrigation Market, carryover and system reserves
Ensure distribution systems can always be run
Individuals better equipped to manage risk
More flexibility/choice to manage supplies
Shorten season if necessary
Investment in irrigation modernisation
to create water savings
Improve levels of service to irrigators and D&S customers
Whole-farm planning and on-farm efficiencies

18. Environment New Approach Environmental Water Portfolio
Ensure river and wetland assets survive during dry sequence (ie Focus on drought refuges)
Provide capacity to recover during wetter years
Environmental Water Portfolio
Understand water requirements
different environmental outcomes
Water recovery for what you need
Manage Efficiently
Seasonally adaptive approach
Most efficient use
Complementary use of works
New institution – VEWH
New Information Needs and Planning
Changing management objectives

19. Environmental Water Portfolio
Environmental Water Provision
Have the right mix of environmental water e.g.
high reliability for drought refuge and breaking dry spell tolerances
low reliability for floods in wet years
Have enough water
How much is enough given the wide range of possible futures ( -5% streamflow reduction to -80%)

20. The proposals – for water recovery for stressed rivers given variable future
Aim for category 4 under current climate and category 2 under worst case scenario
Category
Objective
Flow component 1
Protect drought refuge
Base flows throughout the year 2
Protect drought refuge; dry spell breaking
Summer minimums every year; winter minimums/freshes every 3rd year 3
Sustainable population of priority
in-stream species
All summer and winter minimums and freshes at recommended frequency 4
Healthy in-stream environment
Category 3 + bankfull flows 5
Healthy in-stream environment and protection of priority wetlands
Category 4 + reduced overbank flows (one in every three years) 6
Full environmental flows
All recommended environmental flow components
Draft Strategy proposes water recovery targets, which aim to achieve:
At least Category 4 under base case
At least Category 2 under Scenario D 20

21. Don’t focus on detail
Key message here is that through a consultative process and using the category approach, we are able to set water recovery targets for each of the basins in northern Victoria that has community support and provides the best opportunity to improve the health of our rivers.

22. Efficient environmental water management
Environmental Water Manager
Flexibility
trade
carry over
downstream reuse or credit for return flows
Can optimise use of water across sites / rivers
Use alternative sources of water
Better governance - best use
Environmental water holder
Allocates environmental water
Coordinates with other env holders
Trades
Integrated River Management
CMAs – regional/local priorities, local delivery
EWR managed as part of integrated program

23. Drought
Dry
Average
Wet to very Wet
Long Term Ecol Obj
Set in the regional River Health Strategies and Regional Catchment Strategies – 10 year targets to move towards ecologically healthy rivers
Short Term Ecol Aims
Priority assets have avoided irreversible losses
Priority assets have maintained their basic functions.
The ecological health of priority assets has been protected or improved
Annual Mgt
Obj
Avoid critical loss
Maintain key refuges
Avoid catastrophic events
Maintain many river functions, but recognise
reduced reproductive capacity
Manage within dry-spell tolerances
Improve ecological health and resilience
Minimise impacts of flooding
Restore key ecological functions
EWR Focus
Water critical refuges
Undertake emergency watering to avoid catastrophic events
Provide carry over
If necessary, use the market to sell or purchase water
Provide flushes
Provide all aspects of the flow regime
Provide sufficient flows to promote breeding and recovery
Provide overbank flows
Provide flows needed to promote breeding and recovery
If necessary, use the market to sell or purchase water (if required)

24. Lindsay Island Works flood 60% of the area for 8% of the water use
Natural flood = 150 ML/ha
8000 ha flooded
1200 GL# additional water required
~70,000 ML/day
(Would have occurred 1 year in 5 under historic flow conditions)
With structural works = 20 ML/ha
5000 ha flooded
90 GL# additional water required
$43m (works)
#Assuming historic climate
Difference in water used - 85%of water used by dairy in GMID in 05/06

25. Information and Planning
Needs to focus more on
Drought refugia
Maintaining key recovery mechanisms
Understand dry spell tolerances
RRHS
Identify drought refugia
Identify key source and pathways for recolonisation
Include in assets register
Identify as priority reaches
Environmental Flow Studies
Incorporate survival flows
Identify maximum dry spell lengths
Any recovery requirements e.g. river red gums
Clear logic for action for flow management and complementary river works

26. Set every 8 years in RWS
Reassess every 8 years
Stakeholder engagement
Active management

27. Conclusion Major reforms Best water reform occurs in a crisis
Living in the drought
Understood the issues
Environment had to deal with same issues
Created the imperative
Community willing to listen
Government ready to act
Focus – was drought management understanding that this is likely to be the future
Best water reform occurs in a crisis