1. Spatio-temporal information in society: modelling
Gilberto Câmara
Licence: Creative Commons ̶̶̶̶ By Attribution ̶̶̶̶ Non Commercial ̶̶̶̶ Share Alike

2. What is a model?
A model is a simplified representation of a phenomenon, process, actor, system, or any complex entity.
The truth about reality is intangible.
Everything science knows about reality is a model of reality.

3. Examples of models – atom
Concept
Indivisible entities over which matter is built
Model
Dalton, 1807  solid sphere
Thomson, 1904  plum pudding
Rutherford, 1911  Positive nucleus + negative electrosphere
Bohr, 1913  Nucleus + electrons with different levels of energy
Schrondinger, Pauli  Subatomic particles
Dalton, 1807
Thomson, 1904
Rutherford, 1911
Bohr, 1913

4. Examples of models – Shape of the Earth
Concept
Place where we live. Environment.
Model
Flat  archaic belief
Spherical
Pythagoras (AD 570)  Suggested that Earth could be spherical
Aristotle (AD 330)  First evidence: semi-circular shadow at moon
Eratosthenes (AD 240)  First estimate of Earth’s circumference
Mathematics
Scotsman McLaurin (1742)  Flat
Carl Jacobi (1834)  Elipsoidal
Henri Poincaré (1885)  Periform
Dynamic  Modern geodesy
Dynamic geoid
Flat
Spheric
Ellipsoid
Periform

5. Earth – Our Environment

6. What is a Model? Deforestation in Amazonia in 2020?
simplified representation of a process
Model = entities + attributes + interactions + change rules
graphics: INPE, Pesquisa FAPESP

7. Computational models Connect expertise from different fields
Make the different conceptions explicit
If (... ? ) then ...
Desforestation?

8. Computational models Connect expertise from different fields
Make the different conceptions explicit
Territory
(Geography)
Money
(Economy)
Culture
(Antropology)
Modelling
(GIScience)

9. A typical spatial model: What causes tropical deforestation?
(Getty Images, 2008)
(PRODES, 2008)
source: Espindola, 2012

10. Source: Miller and Page 2005?
Dynamic Models
Time t
Time t + 1
F(S) S
World
E(S)
E(S)
f(s) s
Model
Source: Miller and Page 2005?

11. Dynamic Models
1997
2007 ? S ? ?
World
Modell
f(s)

12. Hanna Fry, CASA, UCL

13. Tobler’s first law in a connected world?
“People still live in places. The space of places is a consequence of human history. However, function and power in our societies are organized in the space of flows. Flows of capital, flows of information, flows of technology, flows of organizational interactions, flows of images, sounds and symbols”. (Castells, “The Rise of Network Society”).

14. Dynamic Spatial Models
f (It)
f (It+1)
f (It+2)
f ( It+n ) F F
. .
"A dynamical spatial model is a computational representation of a real-world process where a location on the earth’s surface changes in response to variations on external and internal dynamics" (Peter Burrough)

15. Dynamic Spatial Models
graphics: Cláudia Almeida
tnow + 10
Calibration
Validation
Projection
Tnow - 20
Tnow – 10
Tnow

16. Which is the better model?

17. Question #1 for human-environment models
What ontological kinds (data types) are required for human-environment models?
Fields
Cells (objects)

18. Concepts for spatial dynamical models
Events and processes
Resilience

19. Concepts for spatial dynamical models
vulnerability
degradation

20. Concepts for spatial dynamical models
biodiversity
sustainability
and much more…
Human-environmental models need to describe complex concepts (and store their attributes in a database)

21. Question #2 for human-environment models
What models are needed to describe human actions?

22. Clocks, clouds or ants? Clouds: statistical distributions
Clocks: deterministic equations
Ants: emerging behaviour

23. Statistics: Humans as clouds
y=a0 + a1x1 + a2x aixi +E
Establishes statistical relationship with variables that are related to the phenomena under study
Basic hypothesis: stationary processes
Example: CLUE Model (University of Wageningen)
Fonte: Verburg et al, Env. Man., Vol. 30, No. 3, pp. 391–405

24. Driving factors of change (deforestation)
source: Aguiar (2006)

25. Statistics: Humans as clouds
source: Aguiar (2006)
Statistical analysis of deforestation

26. Where does this image come from?

27. Where does this image come from?
Map of the web (Barabasi)
(could be brain connections)

28. Information flows in Nature
Ant colonies live in a chemical world

29. Conections and flows are universal
Yeast proteins
(Barabasi and Boneabau, SciAm, 2003)
Scientists in Silicon Valley
(Fleming and Marx, Calif Mngt Rew, 2006)

30. Information flows in the brain
Neurons transmit electrical information, which generate conscience and emotions

31. Information flows generate cooperation
Foto: National Cancer Institute, EUA
White cells attact a cancer cell (cooperative activity)

32. Information flows in planet Earth
Mass and energy transfer between points in the planet

33. From galaxies…. Source: John Finnigan (CSIRO)
Spiral galaxy in Hercules ~10^5 LY diameter
balance between gravity and angular momentum
Source: John Finnigan (CSIRO)

34. …to cyclones ~ 100 km Source: John Finnigan (CSIRO)
Cyclone ~100km balance between buoyancy and coriolis Cyclone Douglas off Florida coast last year
Source: John Finnigan (CSIRO)

35. Gene expression and cell interaction
Source: John Finnigan (CSIRO)
Amoeba
Ribosome
Root Tip
From the molecular level, where the genome codes for linear sequences of amino acids which then fold up autonomously into the required complex 3D shape, to organisation of prokaryotes, eukaryotes and the assembly of cells into organisms is now assumewd to involve a substantial measure of Self organisation as the amount of information required to determine all these processes is not encoded explicitly into the genome. One surprise of genome sequencing is how little info there is there.
E Coli

36. The processing of information by the brain
Processing of information by animal Brains-Memory, Consciousness
Source: John Finnigan (CSIRO)

37. Animal societies and the emergence of culture
Self organisation between animals-societies-much of the behaviour of ’simple’ societies like social insects can be modelled using simple rules governing individual behaviour. Human society is more complex, it seems
Source: John Finnigan (CSIRO)

38. Results of human society such as economies
This is a Bangkok street market
Source: John Finnigan (CSIRO)

39. Complex adaptative systems
How come that an ecosystem with all its diverse species functions and exhibits patterns of regularity?
How come that a city with many inhabitants functions and exhibits patterns of regularity?

40. What are complex adaptive systems?
Systems composed of many interacting parts that evolve and adapt over time. Organized behavior emerges from the simultaneous interactions of parts without any global plan.

41. What are complex adaptive systems?

42. Universal Computing
Computing studies information flows in natural systems...
...and how to represent and work with information flows in artificial systems 42