1. LAS VEGAS HOUSING UPDATE – 2009 DENNIS SMITH – HOME BUILDERS RESEARCH, INC

6. <=60% % % % % % % %
740+
0.25
0.5
0.75 1
1.5 2
2.5
2.25
1.7
1.75
1.25 3
2.75
<620

8. Should sell out in 2009
20+ sell out in 2009 ??

15. LAS VEGAS from 1987
Case Shiller Home Price Index with CME futures for this index
(CS HPI thru October 2008, CME futures prices as of 1/13/09)

16. PHOENIX
-32.9
LAS VEGAS
-31.6
SAN FRANCISCO
-30.8
MIAMI
-28.7
LOS ANGELES
-26.9
SAN DIEGO
-25.8
TAMPA
-20.9
DETROIT
-20.7
WASHINGTON
-19.4
MINNEAPOLIS
-16.3
CHICAGO
-12.5
PORTLAND
-11.5
ATLANTA
-11.2
SEATTLE
NEW YORK
-8.6
BOSTON
-7.4
CHARLOTTE
-5.3
CLEVELAND
-5.2
DENVER
-4.3
DALLAS
-3.3

22. 2008 - % OF NEW SFR SALES TO NEW LISTINGS
NEW LISTINGS
# SOLD
% OF LISTINGS SOLD
Jan-08
5023
983
20%
Feb-08
4805
1098
23%
Mar-08
4860
1478
30%
Apr-08
5124
1794
35%
May-08
5142
2026
39%
Jun-08
5322
2226
42%
Jul-08
5487
2592
47%
Aug-08
5302
2545
48%
Sep-08
5330
2783
52%
Oct-08
5511
2718
49%
Nov-08
4577
2183
Dec-08
4555
2498
55%

24. LAS VEGAS JOB GROWTH 2005 – YR TO YR = UP 7% 2006 – YR TO YR = 5.1%

25. POPULATION GROWTH 2007 – 1,954,319 2008 – 2,008,063 = +2.8%
2009 – 2,077,463 = +3.5%
2010 – 2,148,122 = +3.4%
2020 – 2,666,119
2028 – 3,014,975

33. FIX HOUSING FIRST NEED TO STOP FALLING HOME VALUES
RESTORE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
FIX THE CREDIT MESS – WILL BRING BACK INVESTMENT DOLLARS THAT CREATE JOBS
KEEP PEOPLE IN THEIR HOMES – EMPTY HOUSES = BLIGHTED NEIGHBORHOODS
LOWER INTEREST RATES
TAX CREDIT THAT IS ONLY REPAYABLE IF HOME SOLD WITHIN FIRST 3 YEARS