1. Going Up for the Rebound
On Behalf of
Maryland Association of REALTORS
By: Anirban Basu
Sage Policy Group, Inc.
September 10, 2013
Mission Impossible
Honey, We Shrunk Ourselves
Mixed Nuts
As Good as it Gets
Pay it forward
Reality Bites
Point Break
Deep Impact

2. First Pitch

3. Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2014*
reflects the July 2013 updates.
Source: International Monetary Fund
* data are projections

4. Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2013 Projected
July 2013 Updates
Source: International Monetary Fund

5. Debt by Selected Country 2012
Source: IMF

6. Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2011 Growth
Rank
Exchange
Index
% Change 1
NYSE Group
DJI A
5.5% 2
Nasdaq
NASDAQ Composite
-1.8% 3
London SE
FTSE 100
-5.6% 12
Swiss Exchange
Swiss Market Index
-7.8% 9
TSX Group
S&P TSX Composite
-9.2% 8
Bolsa De Medrid
IGBM
-14.6% 6
Frankfurt SE
DAX
-14.7% 5
Euronext
CAC 40
-17.0% 4
Tokyo SE
Nikkei 225
-17.3% 11
Hong Kong Exchanges
Hang Seng Index
-20.0% 7
Shanghai SE
Shanghai Composite
-21.7% 10
Borsa Italiana
FTSE MIB
-25.2%
Source: Yahoo! Finance

7. Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2012 Growth
Rank
Exchange
Index
% Change 6
Frankfurt SE
DAX
29.1% 11
Hong Kong Exchanges
Hang Seng Index
22.9% 4
Tokyo SE
Nikkei 225 2
Nasdaq
NASDAQ Composite
15.9% 5
Euronext
CAC 40
15.2% 12
Swiss Exchange
Swiss Market Index
14.9% 10
Borsa Italiana
FTSE MIB
7.8% 1
NYSE Group
DJI A
7.3% 3
London SE
FTSE 100
5.8% 9
TSX Group
S&P TSX Composite
4.0% 7
Shanghai SE
Shanghai Composite
3.2% 8
Bolsa De Madrid
IBEX 35
-4.7%
Source: Yahoo! Finance

8. Top 12 Stock Exchanges Year to date Growth Thru 8/16/13
Rank
Exchange
Index
% Change 4
Tokyo SE
Nikkei 225
31.3% 2
Nasdaq
NASDAQ Composite
19.3% 12
Swiss Exchange
Swiss Market
16.7% 1
NYSE Group
DJI A
15.1% 5
Euronext
CAC 40
13.3% 6
Frankfurt SE
DAX
10.2% 3
London SE
FTSE 100 10
Borsa Italiana
FTSE MIB
8.6% 8
Bolsa De Madrid
Madrid General
8.0% 9
TSX Group
S&P TSX Composite
2.4% 11
Hong Kong Exchanges
Hang Seng Index
-0.6% 7
Shanghai SE
Shanghai Composite
-8.8%

9. S&P Select Sector Performance 2012
Source: Dow Jones, Standard & Poor’s

10. S&P 500 index depicted in orange
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet v. S&P 500 Index April 2008 – August 2013
Through 8/21/2013
Should we convert this to a line graph?
Fed balance-weekly-wednesdays
Reserve Bank credit is the sum of securities held outright, repurchase agreements, term auction credit, other loans, net portfolio holdings of Commercial Paper Funding Facility LLC, net portfolio holdings of LLCs funded through the Money Market Investor Funding Facility, net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane LLC, net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane II LLC, net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane III LLC, float, central bank liquidity swaps, and other Federal Reserve assets.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank; Yahoo Finance
S&P 500 index depicted in orange

11. Second Quarter Earnings for Select Corporations Earnings per Share
Symbol
Q2 2012
Q Estimated
Q Reported
Surprise
COF
$2.20
$1.74
$2.13
$0.39 GE
$0.38
$0.35
$0.36
$0.01
BTU
$0.73
($0.05)
$0.33 VZ
$0.64
$0.72
VFC
$1.11
$1.17
$1.27
$0.10
CMG
$2.56
$2.81
$2.82
YHOO
$0.27
$0.26
$0.09
COH
$0.86
$0.89
$0.00
UTX
$1.58
$1.57
$1.65
$0.08
MMM
$1.66
$1.71
HON
$1.14
$1.21
$1.28
$0.07
UPS
$1.15
$1.13
($0.01)
XRX
$0.24
$0.03
MCD
$1.32
$1.40
$1.38
($0.02)
STI
$0.50
$0.66
$0.68
$0.02
TXN
$0.44
$0.42
AMD
$0.05
($0.12)
($0.10)
MSFT
$0.74
$0.59
($0.15) DD
$1.48
FCX
$0.80
$0.46
$0.22
($0.24)
DOW
$0.55
$0.63
CAT
$2.54
$1.70
$1.45
($0.25)
Source: Dow Jones, Standard & Poor’s

12. Recession Watch as of September 2013
Source: Moody’s Economy

13. Industrial Production March 2001 through July 2013
The industrial production index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.
Source: Federal Reserve

14. Gross Domestic Product 1990Q1 through 2013Q2
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

15. Contributions to GDP Growth by Component Q2 2012 – Q2 2013
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

16. Red Card/ Pink Slip

17. Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2002 through August 2013
August 2013: K
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

18. National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector August 2012 v
National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector August 2012 v. August 2013
All told 2,206 K Jobs gained
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

19. Maryland Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA) July 2013 v
Maryland Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA) July 2013 v. July 2012 Absolute Change
MD Total: K; +1.5%
US Total (SA): +2,276K; +1.7%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

20. Baltimore-Towson MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) July 2013 v. July 2012 Absolute Change
Baltimore MSA Total: K; +1.9%
MD Total (NSA): K; +1.8%
US Total (SA): +2,276K; +1.7%
July 2013 Preliminary
Series ID are in excel linked to chart
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

21. Washington, DC MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) July 2013 v. July 2012 Absolute Change
D.C. MSA Total: ; +1.4%
US Total (SA): +2,276K; +1.7%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

22. Cumulative Job Growth Since December 2007:
Full-time v. Part-time December 2007 – August 2013
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey
Full-time: million
Part-time: million

23. U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 1.7%
Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) July 2012 v. July 2013 Percent Change
Rank
State % 1
Utah
3.2 17
Iowa
1.7 35
Hawaii
1.0 2
Arizona
3.1
Michigan
Illinois 3
Georgia
2.8
North Carolina
Kentucky 4
Colorado
2.7
Oregon
New Mexico
Idaho 22
California
1.6 39
Alabama
0.9
North Dakota 23
Maryland
1.5
New York
Texas
Vermont
Wisconsin 8
Washington
2.3 25
Connecticut
1.4
Wyoming 9
Mississippi
2.2
Virginia 43
Maine
0.8 10
Minnesota
2.0 27
Nevada
1.3
West Virginia
South Carolina 28
Arkansas
1.2 45
Nebraska
0.7 12
Florida
1.9
Kansas
Ohio
Indiana
Louisiana 47
Oklahoma
0.6
Montana
Massachusetts 48
District of Columbia
0.5
New Jersey
Tennessee
Pennsylvania 16
Missouri
1.8 33
New Hampshire
1.1 50
Rhode Island
0.2
Delaware
South Dakota 51
Alaska
-0.5
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
SMS
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 1.7%

24. Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) July 2013
Rank
State
Rate 1
North Dakota
3.0 18
Texas
6.5 35
Arizona
8.0 2
South Dakota
3.9 19
Idaho
6.6
Oregon 3
Nebraska
4.2 20
Wisconsin
6.8 37
Connecticut
8.1 4
Hawaii
4.5 21
Maine
6.9
South Carolina 5
Utah
4.6
New Mexico 39
Indiana
8.4
Vermont
Washington 40
Kentucky
8.5
Wyoming 24
Louisiana
7.0
Mississippi 8
Iowa
4.8 25
Colorado
7.1
Tennessee 9
New Hampshire
5.1
Florida 43
District of Columbia
8.6 10
Minnesota
5.2
Maryland
New Jersey 11
Montana
5.3
Missouri 45
California
8.7
Oklahoma 29
Massachusetts
7.2 46
Georgia
8.8 13
Virginia
5.7
Ohio
Michigan 14
Kansas
5.9 31
Arkansas
7.4 48
North Carolina
8.9 15
West Virginia
6.2
Delaware
Rhode Island 16
Alabama
6.3 33
New York
7.5 50
Illinois
9.2
Alaska
Pennsylvania 51
Nevada
9.5
July 2013 preliminary
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Unemployment Rate: 7.4%

25. Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA) July 2013
Rank
MSA UR 1
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area
4.9 10
Baltimore-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area
7.5 2
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area
5.7 12
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area
7.8 3
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area
5.8 13
St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area1
7.9 4
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area
6.4 14
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area
8.0 5
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area
6.5 15
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area
8.4 6
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metropolitan NECTA
6.6 16
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area
8.6 7
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area
6.9 17
Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area
9.6
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area 18
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area
9.8 9
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area
7.3 19
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area
10.4
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 20
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area
11.0
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

26. MD County Unemployment Rates July 2013
Rank
Jurisdiction UR 1
Montgomery County
5.3 12
Kent County
7.2 2
Howard County
5.5
Harford County 3
Frederick County
5.9 15
Baltimore County
7.4 4
Carroll County
6.2 16
Worcester County
7.6 5
Queen Anne's County
6.4 17
Caroline County
8.0 6
Calvert County
6.5 18
Cecil County
8.2 7
Anne Arundel County
6.6 19
Washington County
8.4
St. Mary's County
Wicomico County 9
Charles County
6.7 21
Allegany County
8.6 10
Talbot County
6.8 22
Dorchester County
10.0 11
Prince George's County
7.1 23
Somerset County
10.4
Garrett County 24
Baltimore City
10.8
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

27. Pad Save

28. 15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates January 1995 through August 2013
Source: Freddie Mac

29. Messages from Federal Open Market Committee, July 2013
(T)he Committee decided to continue adding policy accommodation by purchasing additional MBS at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month . . .
. . . the Committee reaffirmed its intention to keep the target federal funds rate at .00 to ¼ percent exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6½ percent.
Numbers above unchanged in July minutes
Can change title to July?
July Minutes:
Dismal:
“Bets on the Fed to begin tapering in September may rise, as the minutes noted that “almost all participants” confirmed that they were broadly comfortable with the contingent plan for QE laid out by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in the June post-meeting press conference. Bernanke said that QE could end when the unemployment rate approaches 7%, which could be around mid-2014.”
“Missing from the minutes was discussion about the composition of QE after the Fed begins to taper. Initially, we thought the Fed’s first taper would be in the ballpark of $20 billion, evenly split between Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. Given the tightening in financial markets, the Fed may start smaller and focus on Treasuries; there is the view that MBS purchases have had a greater impact on long-term rates.”
“The Fed described June’s employment gain as “solid.” The job market has improved since the Fed began QE3, and policymakers appear more confident in where the labor market is headed. This is important, as it would factor into any decision to taper.”
Source: Federal Reserve Bank, Bloomberg. (June. 28th, 2013). “Lacker Says Markets to Stay Volatile as Fed Debates Tapering”

30. U.S. New Home Sales January 1999 through July 2013
Source: Economy.com, Census Bureau

31. U.S. Housing Starts January 1999 through July 2013
Source: Census Bureau

32. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros June 2013, 12-Month Percentage Change
June 2013: U.S. National Index-1-year % change: 10.1%
Source: Standard & Poor’s

33. Median Home Price for Maryland January 2001 through July 2013
$286,758
Source: Maryland Association of REALTORS

34. Median Home Price for Baltimore County January 2001 through July 2013
$228,250
Source: Maryland Association of REALTORS

35. Median Home Price for Harford County January 2001 through July 2013
$244,800
Source: Maryland Association of REALTORS

36. Median Home Price for Prince George’s County January 2001 through July 2013
$206,750
Source: Maryland Association of REALTORS

37. Median Home Price for Washington County January 2001 through July 2013
$179,000
Source: Maryland Association of REALTORS

38. Median Home Price for Wicomico County January 2001 through July 2013
$139,900
Source: Maryland Association of REALTORS

39. Supply and Demand for Commercial Real Estate Loans 2001Q1 through 2013Q3*
Source: Federal Reserve
Source: Federal Reserve

40. Commercial Bank Loan Volume January 2001 through March 2012
Source: Federal Reserve

41. Put me in, Coach

42. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index 2005 – August 2013
Source: Conference Board

43. U.S. Retail and Food Service Sales January 2002 through July 2013
Source: Census Bureau

44. Sales Growth by Type of Business July 2012 v. July 2013*
Source: Census Bureau
*July 2013 advanced estimate

45. National Vehicle Sales June 2004 through July 2013 (SAAR)
Source: Autodata Corp.

46. Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index August 2007 through July 2013
Source: Conference Board

47. Fourth Quarter
As predicted, first half of year was quite soft in terms of economic expansion as sequestration and tax hikes make their mark;
Second half of year should be better, with growth likely to average a shade above 2 percent;.
Many headwinds remain and the recovery could easily falter;
Black swan threats: (1) Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe;
Maryland has held its own to date, but there are major discrepancies between the household survey and the establishment survey – one of them is probably wrong; and
We are an increasingly part-time nation – that looks like a problem.

48. Thank You You can always reach me at abasu@sagepolicy.com
Please look for updates of information at
Also, if you need us in a hurry, we are at ( SAGE)
Please contact us when you require economic research & policy analysis.