1. Comeback Cities, Have The Big Cities Come Back?
Edward W. (Ned) Hill
Harold Wolman
Kimberly Furdell
Funding from
The Brookings Institution, Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy and the Fannie Mae Foundation

2. Purpose What is the economic well-being of city residents?
Economic well-being getting better or worse?
How did Ohio’s central cities perform?
Hill, Wolman & Furdell

3. Universe
Central cities with 1980 populations of at least 125,000 in metropolitan areas with at least 250,000 people
98 cities
Hill, Wolman & Furdell

4. Two Measures for Two Stories
Levels of resident distress
How well are we doing?
Improvement from 1990 to 2000
How much are we improving?
Hill, Wolman & Furdell

5. Index of City Resident Economic Distress
Poverty rate
Unemployment rate
Median household income
Missing is a measure of cost of living
Calculated as n-scores
Ni = (Xi – Median) / PSD
ni ~ Normal (Median, PSD)
PSD = (Interquartile range)/1.35
PSD Pseudo Standard Deviation
Hill, Wolman & Furdell

6. Index: Change in Resident Economic Wellbeing: 1990 to 2000
Percent change from 1990 to 2000
Per capita income
Median household income
Percentage point change from 1990 to 2000
Poverty rate
Unemployment rate
Labor force participation rate
Hill, Wolman & Furdell

7. How Big is Big?
Hill, Wolman & Furdell

8. Levels of Distress

9. The Relationship Has Been Stable for 20 years
Hill, Wolman & Furdell

10. Does Region Matter?
Hill, Wolman & Furdell

11. The Eastern Midwest
Hill, Wolman & Furdell

12. The Top 25 in 2000
Hill, Wolman & Furdell

13. The Top 25 in 1980
Hill, Wolman & Furdell

14. The Bottom 25
Hill, Wolman & Furdell

15. Change in the Economic Wellbeing of City Residents: 1990 to 2000

16. How Well Did Most Distressed in 1990 Do? The Low Lower 48
The lower 1/3 of all cities with 125,000 population in 1990 on municipal distress index
Calculated improvement in economic well being of residents from 1990 to 2000
Hill, Wolman & Furdell

17. Change in Economic Wellbeing of City Residents: 1990 to 2000
Percent change from 1990 to 2000
Per capita income
Median household income
Percentage point change from 1990 to 2000
Poverty rate
Unemployment rate
Labor force participation rate
Hill, Wolman & Furdell

18. The Results—Most Improved
Mean index of wellbeing improvement = , standard deviation =
Hill, Wolman & Furdell

19. The Results—The Fallen
Hill, Wolman & Furdell

20. What Is To Be Learned?
Difference between perception & reality—be wary of “best practices” and copy-cat strategy
It is not regression to the mean
Industrial composition matters
Manufacturing coupled with low immigration
Pay attention to fundamentals
Hill, Wolman & Furdell