1. Science and global environmental politics
The Case of Stratospheric Ozone Depletion and Lessons for Climate Change
Karen Litfin
Political Science

2. Risk Perception & (Ir)rationality
Representativeness
Availability
Anchoring
Overconfidence
Subjective factors
Autonomy
Fairness
Natural vs. human-induced
Risk cultures
ENVIR 100 Guest lecture

3. Precautionary Principle
Under threat to human health or environment, precautions should be taken even without full scientific proof of causality.
“ounce of prevention is worth pound of cure” 
Embryonic principle of international law
How to apply it?
ENVIR 100 Guest lecture

4. Ozone Depletion: Agenda Setting
CFCs: the “miracle compound”
Stratospheric ozone
Why we need it
1974 hypothesis: CFCs destroy ozone
1978: U.S., Canada, Nordic aerosol ban
: fact-finding
Models predicted 7% ozone loss by 2050
ENVIR 100 Guest lecture

5. Science in the Ozone Negotiations
Vienna Convention (1985)
Antarctic ozone hole (1986)
The wild card!
Montreal Protocol (1987)
U.S.-E.U. compromise
IC’s cut CFCs in half by 2000
DC’s increase for 10 years
ENVIR 100 Guest lecture

6. The effect of the hole Not predicted by models
“Chlorine-loading” scheme
Emerged when Cl reached 2 ppb
Stabilizing Cl required 85% reduction
U.S. position: 95% cutback
Montreal Protocol was not enough
Would have led to 11 ppb by 2000
ENVIR 100 Guest lecture

7. Beyond Montreal Amendments: 2/3 vote, majority of IC’s & DC’s
1988: New Science
1990s: HCFCs, HFCs
Grand bargain: participation for development aid
London, 1990: CFC phaseout by 2000
Multilateral ozone fund
Stricter amendments every 1-2 years
ENVIR 100 Guest lecture

8. Coming Attractions
2010 ~ Total phase-out of CFCs, halons and carbon tetrachloride in developing countries.
2015 ~ Total phase-out of methyl chloroform and methyl bromide in developing countries.
2030 ~ Total phase-out of HCFCs in developed countries.
2040 ~ Total phase-out of HCFCs in developing countries
ENVIR 100 Guest lecture

9. Montreal Protocol Effectiveness
Multilateral ozone fund
$2.5 billion,
Shining example of green diplomacy, but…
… lag time
Ozone hole
1986: 14 million km2
2006: 28 million km2
Chlorine loading near its peak
ENVIR 100 Guest lecture

10. Ozone Hole, 2006
ENVIR 100 Guest lecture

11. The Ozone-Climate Connection
CFCs, HCFCs & HFCs are powerful GHGs
US at Rio: “Comprehensive Approach”
CFC phaseout as response to climate change
Global warming > stratospheric cooling
Ozone unstable at lower temperatures
New possibility: use ozone treaties to address climate change
HFCs predicted to contribute 25% as much to global warming by 2030 
ENVIR 100 Guest lecture

12. Lessons for climate change?
Science
Save the data!
Important science can come from unexpected quarters.
Scientists increasingly outspoken
IC-led science accepted by DCs
Science-led protocol amendment process
Policy process
Scientific uncertainty in the face of high risk can spur precautionary action.
A dramatic, visible, persistent crisis matters.
How many Katrinas do we need?
U.S. leadership can be critical.
ENVIR 100 Guest lecture

13. … lessons for climate change?
Policy structure (cont.)
When states lead, NGOs are not so prominent
When they don’t, nonstate actors more prominent
Small, concentrated industry vs. the glue of the global economy
Availability of profitable substitutes
Norms and ethics
Universal participation and “common but differentiated responsibility”
Multilateral ozone fund as precedent
Ozone and climate as teachers of planetary interdependence
ENVIR 100 Guest lecture

14. ENVIR 100 Guest lecture

15. How can we protect the thin blue line that protects us all?
ENVIR 100 Guest lecture