1. Hybrid Techniques Scenario Planning MIS 650 Project Seminar 16/09/2018
MIS 650 Scenario Planning

2. Definition
Scenario Planning (SP) is an attempt to make concrete or more real what is hypothesized about a theory by “telling a story” of a typical case.
Because SP combines aspects of case studies (with a “fictional” case) and evaluation and proof of concept (with verbal prototypes), it is a hybrid method.
16/09/2018
MIS 650 Scenario Planning

3. One Definition
Scenario planning is a method for learning about the future by understanding the nature and impact of the most uncertain and important driving forces affecting our future. It is a group process which encourages knowledge exchange and development of mutual deeper understanding of central issues important to the future of your business. The goal is to craft a number of diverging stories by extrapolating uncertain and heavily influencing driving forces. The stories together with the work getting there has the dual purpose of increasing the knowledge of the business environment and widen both the receiver's and participant's perception of possible future events.
16/09/2018
MIS 650 Scenario Planning

4. One Definition, Cont’d
The method is most widely used as a strategic management tool, but this and similar methods have been used for enabling other types of group discussion about a common future.
Martin Börjesson  ( ); consultant
Scenario Planning is a method of “predicting the future”, but from a knowledge point of view it is an attempt to reduce a multi-factorial “fuzzy” image of the real world and its dynamics to a simplified picture, in other words, a model; doing so enables critique aimed at improvement.
16/09/2018
MIS 650 Scenario Planning

5. Basic Method
Immersion in the material: understanding the existing state of theory
Development of “stories” or typical “average” cases.
Embellishment of stories so that they become vivid, with markers for players and forces that have names
Discussion and critique
16/09/2018
MIS 650 Scenario Planning

6. Variants
Crystal Ball Gazing: SP is most commonly used to look at the future by deriving typical “cases of the future.”
Strategic Planning: Attempts to visualize the results of specific strategies
Market Research: Ideas for focus groups to react to.
16/09/2018
MIS 650 Scenario Planning

7. Scenario Planning is a “Qualitative” Method
Dept. of Information Systems Doctoral Program in IS & ND
Scenario Planning is a “Qualitative” Method
The data used are not numerical measures but words; the goal is not to prove relationships but to motivate arguments that relationships exist or do not
Relies on interpretation and interaction
Does not depend on amassing large samples, using statistics, or computing or counting things, but assembling cases and provoking discussion
16/09/2018
MIS 650 Scenario Planning

8. “Qualitative” Methods’ Agenda: Increasing the Quality of the Discourse
Dept. of Information Systems Doctoral Program in IS & ND
“Qualitative” Methods’ Agenda: Increasing the Quality of the Discourse
One of the goals is to increase our knowledge by increasing the quality of the discourse
The reasoning is thus:
Better (more, more relevant, more useful) knowledge requires better theories. These theories arise from the crucible of discussion, debate and discourse. Improving the raw material of this discourse means improving the process of critiquing theories
16/09/2018
MIS 650 Scenario Planning

9. Increasing the Quality of the Discourse
Dept. of Information Systems Doctoral Program in IS & ND
Increasing the Quality of the Discourse
Impressions,
Thoughts,
Felt Ideas
Debate,
Discussion
Dialectic
Discourse
Expressed
Ideas
Essential Criticism
Higher Quality Ideas
Critical Commentary
Experience
16/09/2018
MIS 650 Scenario Planning

10. Details Derive the scenario question (goal)
Derive the scenario question (goal)
Proximate environment (givens)
Driving forces (theory)
Importance, uncertainty (judgment)
Composing the stories
Reality Check (critique)
Implications (“running the model”)
16/09/2018
MIS 650 Scenario Planning