1. JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER LPA (Long Period Average)
MONSOON 2018 FORECAST
100% OF LPA (+/-5%)
NORMAL RAINFALL
JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER
(LPA=887 mm)
LPA (Long Period Average)
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2. 20% Above Normal 5% Excess 0% Drought 20% Below Normal 55% Normal
PROBABILITY OF MONSOON
JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER (JJAS)
20% Above Normal
5% Excess
0% Drought
20% Below Normal
55% Normal
EXCESS
ABOVE NORMAL
NORMAL
BELOW NORMAL
DROUGHT
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3. MONSOON 2018 FORECAST 289 mm 261 mm 280 mm 250 mm 182 mm 175 mm 173 mm
Normal
Forecast
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4. 60% Above Normal 10% Below Normal 30% Normal PROBABILITY OF MONSOON
JUNE
60% Above Normal
10% Below Normal
30% Normal
111% OF LPA
NORMAL FOR JUNE IS 164 mm
ABOVE NORMAL
NORMAL
BELOW NORMAL
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5. 15% Above Normal 55% Normal 30% Below Normal PROBABILITY OF MONSOON
JULY
15% Above Normal
55% Normal
30% Below Normal
97% OF LPA
NORMAL FOR JULY IS 289 mm
ABOVE NORMAL
NORMAL
BELOW NORMAL
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6. 10% Above Normal 55% Normal 35% Below Normal PROBABILITY OF MONSOON
AUGUST
10% Above Normal
55% Normal
35% Below Normal
96% OF LPA
NORMAL FOR AUGUST IS 261 mm
ABOVE NORMAL
NORMAL
BELOW NORMAL
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7. NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER IS 173 mm
PROBABILITY OF MONSOON
SEPTEMBER
20% Above Normal
60% Normal
20% Below Normal
101% OF LPA
NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER IS 173 mm
ABOVE NORMAL
NORMAL
BELOW NORMAL
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8. MONSOON SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER (JJAS)
36N
33N
30N
27N
24N
21N
18N
15N
12N 9N
Rainfall Departure: 0%
Normal rains likely for the country, particularly East India
Southern Peninsula and parts of Northeast India could be at some risk
69E E E E E 84E E E E E E
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9. MONSOON SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
JUNE
36N
33N
30N
27N
24N
21N
18N
15N
12N 9N
Rainfall Departure: 11%
Above normal rains for the country
Below normal rains for Tamil Nadu and Northeast India
Monsoon yet to advance in Northwest India
69E E E E E 84E E E E E E
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10. MONSOON SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
JULY
36N
33N
30N
27N
24N
21N
18N
15N
12N 9N
Rainfall Departure: -3%
Normal Monsoon rains for East, Central and North India
Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and East Uttar Pradesh to see good rains
69E E E E E 84E E E E E E
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11. MONSOON SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
AUGUST
36N
33N
30N
27N
24N
21N
18N
15N
12N 9N
Rainfall Departure: -4%
Peninsular and Northeast India along with Gujarat could see deficient rains
East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh along with foothills stand a chance of good rainfall
69E E E E E 84E E E E E E
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12. MONSOON SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
SEPTEMBER
36N
33N
30N
27N
24N
21N
18N
15N
12N 9N
Rainfall Departure: 1%
Most parts of India would see normal Monsoon rains, especially Central and East India
Some parts of Kerala, Karnataka and Arunachal Pradesh to see deficient rains
69E E E E E 84E E E E E E
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13. THANK YOU
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