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Manufacturing’s job crisis
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Productivity, demand, and trade
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Productivity
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Demand
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Trade deficit in manufactures
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An accounting framework
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A closer look: durable vs. non-durables
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Contributions to job-loss: 1998-2003
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Contributions to job-loss: 2000-2003
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Contributions to job-loss: 2001-2003
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Productivity growth: durables vs. non-durables
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Productivity: Durables – NAICS 3341 and 3344
Computer and peripheral equipment Semiconductors and electronic components
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Manufactures trade deficit + Value of the dollar
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Real, broad $ index: Time to breathe easy?
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Broad, major vs. OTIP indices
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Top 6 Deficit trading partners
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Deficit-weighted exchange rate change
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Policy options 1) Dollar policy: continue negotiations with countries that peg their currency for competitive advantage 2) Legacy cost relief for retiree health and pension benefits 3) Health care, as always
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