1. Conceptual View of Technology Evolution and Disruptive Technology
Daniel HaoTien Lee (李浩典)

2. Five Successive Technological Revolutions, 1770s to 2000s
Popular name for the period
Core country or countries
Big-bang initiating the revolution
Year
FIRST
The ‘Industrial Revolution’
Britain
Arkwright’s mill opens in Cromford
1771
SECOND
Age of Steam and Railways
Britain (spreading to Continent and USA)
Test of the ‘Rocket’ steam engine for the Liverpool-Manchester railway
1829
THIRD
Age of Steel, Electricity and Heavy Engineering
USA and Germany forging ahead and overtaking Britain
The Carnegie Bessemer steel plant opens in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
1875
FOURTH
Age of Oil, the Automobile and Mass Production
USA (with Germany at first vying for world leadership), later spreading to Europe
First Model-T comes out of the Ford palnt in Detroit, Michigan
1908
FIFTH
Age of Information, Computing, and Telecommunications
USA (spreading to Europe and Asia)
The Intel microprocessor is announced in Santa Clara, California
1971
Source: Carlota Perez 2002

3. The Historical S, T & A Co-evolution Process
NBIC: Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology, Cognitive Science
Courtesy of Byeongwon Park 2007

4. NBIC Case: Life Ingredients Available for ……
Four chemicals, called bases, are the essential building blocks of life, photographed here at Twist in San Francisco, Calif., on Friday, June 19, They are fed into a machine, called a DNA synthesizer, which dispenses fragments of genetic material onto a tiny silicon chip, which are stitched together into genes. Then these synthetic genes are inserted into cells and used to build products never found in nature. (John Green/Bay Area News Group) ( JOHN GREEN )

5. Mass Production of Genes!
Takeways:
Mass Production of Genes!
Personalize DNA at will!

6. Double Nature of Technological Revolutions
A CLUSTER OF NEW DYNAMIC
PRODUCTS, TECHNOLOGIES
INDUSTRIES AND INFRASTRUCTURES
generating explosive growth
and structural change
NEW INTERRELATED
GENERIC TECHNOLOGIES
AND ORGANIZATIONAL PRINCIPLES
capable of rejuvenating and
upgrading mature industries
A CHANGE OF TECHNO-ECONOMIC PARADIGM
New engines of growth
for a long-term upsurge
of development
A higher level
of potential productivity
for the whole
productive system
Source: Carlota Perez 1998

7. Disruptive Technologies
A driver of leadership failure and the source of new growth opportunities
Lower-risk enterprise mode
Higher-risk venture(stealth) mode
or Disruptive business models
or Disruptive value creation
Courtesy of

8. The Innovator’s Dilemma
60% on
$500,000
45% on
$250,000
40% %
on $2,000
Incombent: NASA vs Entrants: SpaceX and Virgin Galactic
Courtesy of

9. Disruption in business models has been the dominant historical mechanism for making things more affordable and accessible.
Tomorrow(2014):
Chery?
Internet retail
RIM Blackberry? Apple, Samsung
Skywest, Air taxis?
ETFs ?(exchange trade fund)
Zink?, Micropojector?
Linux, Android, iOS
Salesforce.com?
Skype?, LINE?
E-Trade
China, India, Turkish, Brazil
Smart Phones, iPad
Yesterday
Ford
Dept. Stores
Digital Eqpt.
Delta
JP Morgan Chase
Xerox
IBM
Cullinet
AT&T
Dillon, Read
Japan
Sony DiskMan
Today(2008)
Toyota
Wal-Mart
Dell
Southwest Airlines
Fidelity
Canon, Nikon
Microsoft
Oracle
Cingular
Merrill Lynch
Korea, Taiwan
Cellular Phones, iPod
But technology advancing are always the main thrust behind these transitions
Courtesy of Clayton Christensen, Harvard U. 2008

10. Role Players in Technology Revolution and Evolution/Innovation
Entrepreneurs/Innovators  First Follower  Second Follower
Engineers Managers  Entrepreneurs/Innovators
Consumers/Customer  Entrepreneurs/Innovators
Financiers Entrepreneurs
Infrastructure Builders  Government and Entrepreneurs/Innovators (rare cases)

11. What is Innovation!

12. Innovation Focus on Value
Innovation is the creation and delivery of new customer value in the marketplace with sustainable value for those producing it
Not just collaboration or teamwork
Not just entrepreneurship
Not just R&D and knowledge creation
Not just creativity

13. Technology and Complexity
Complexity: individual elements reacting to the collective pattern they create
Evolution is part of this
Q. Does the collective of technology evolve?
Courtesy of W. Brian Arthur

14. An observation Technologies are constructed from existing technologies
© 2009 W. Brian Arthur

15. How a technology is structured
Base concept or principle
“the method of the thing” (i.e. the idea of some effect in use)
E.g. principle of a clock is to count the beats of some stable frequency
A base assembly (a combination that achieves this)
Ancillary systems and parts to make this work
© 2009 W. Brian Arthur

16. Jet engine (GE J47)
© 2009 W. Brian Arthur

17. Real powerplant--A Rolls Royce turbofan
© 2009 W. Brian Arthur

18. The process of invention
Distilled down, it really is seeing a principle, and putting together the ways to make this work from functionalities that already exist
… plus solving the subproblems this creates
© 2009 W. Brian Arthur

19. We can say … 
Novel technologies are constructed from existing technologies
… These offer themselves as components—building blocks for the construction of further technologies
© 2009 W. Brian Arthur

22. So in real life we may wish simplicity over complexity!
But complexity is growing exponentially
in our modern life!

23. Technology complexity actually help life for simplicity or otherwise?

24. “To attain knowledge, add things every day
“To attain knowledge, add things every day. To attain wisdom, subtract things every day. — Lao Tzu”

25. Subtraction Is the Hardest Math in Product Design

26. “Simplicity is about subtraction”

29. The Laws of Subtraction: How to Innovate in the Age of Excess Everything

31. Abstraction is key to creativity– so lead
to technology innovation, evolution,
and revolution….

32. Abstraction shifts: The concept of new work is based on the fact that in today’s complex and changing world, all fields of work will sooner or later face one or more abstraction shifts. This means that the content, relevance, execution and output of work become redefined and shift to a higher level of development. At the same time, some types of work unavoidably become irrelevant and cease to exist.

33. In general, companies have two ways of successfully coping with the change: they can either gradually evolve their business model or make a radical move to new business sectors. Car manufacturers have chosen the evolutionary road, combining branding and design to technological progress. In turn, Apple is a prime example of radical change and expansion, now operating not only in hardware manufacturing, but also in the fields of media, content production, and software development.

34. Drinking to Toast:
A mundane story: drinking has evolved from the primitive quenching of thirst to the traditional consumption of liquids to the modern refinement of drinks and finally to the futuristic form of a toast. An abstraction shift happens at each transition point. These evolutionary shifts can be intentionally exploited when drafting new models for work, business and systemic solutions, thus creating a competitive advantage and long term success.

35. Breakthrough Innovation: where it comes from?
Optimism: hopefulness and confidence about the future or the successful outcome of something.
Pessimism: a tendency to see the worst aspect of things or believe that the worst will happen; a lack of hope or confidence in the future. Read more: 
Credulous: having or showing too great a readiness to believe things.
Skeptical: not easily convinced; having doubts or reservations. Read more: 

36. ref. http://www. businessinsider

37. Says psychologist David Dunning 
“We cannot recognize the best among us, because we simply do not have the competency to be able to recognize how competent those people are."
And unfortunately, genius has another problem: true geniuses—and breakthrough ideas—often sound crazy.
It doesn't matter if the glass is half full or half empty if you think you can make a better glass. -- Genius, it turns out, has less to do with the size of your mind than how open it is. Read more: 

38. Assignment for next week
"Taiwan's Value Chain Disruption in ICT Industry” refer to reference material in the course website.
"Technology Pioneers of Early-Stage” refer to reference link in the course website.
Prepare for 10min. presentation and 5min. Q&A for each of above topic