1. PART II: Nominations &Campaigns

2. Deciding to Run The Nomination Game
Campaigns are more physically and emotionally taxing than ever.
American campaigns are much longer (around 18 months)
Barack Obama made clear his intention to run for president in January 2007.
Other countries have short campaigns, generally less than two months.
The Nomination Game

3. Competing for Delegates
Nomination game is an elimination contest.
Goal is to win a majority of delegates’ support at the national party convention, or the supreme power within each of the parties.
The convention meets every four years to nominate the party’s presidential and vice-presidential candidates.
Conventions are but a formality today.

4. Delegate process Republicans Democrats
2286 delegates, need 1144 to be nominated
Delegates awarded Proportionally and by “winner-take-all”
Democrats
5554 delegates, need 2778 to be nominated
727 “Super -delegates”= officials(governors, senators, House members ) can vote for any candidate
Delegates awarded proportionally

5. The Nomination Game Competing for Delegates The Caucus Road
Caucus: meetings of state party leaders for selecting delegates to the national convention. (16 states use Caucus)
Organized like a pyramid from local precincts to the state’s convention.
A handful of states use a caucus—open to all voters who are registered with a party.
The Iowa caucus is first and most important, since most candidates campaign there for about a year and a half.
2008 Iowa Results
JOHN McCAIN
But who won the Nomination in the end?

6. Competing for Delegates
The Nomination Game
Competing for Delegates
The Primary Road
Primary: elections in which voters in a state vote for a nominee (or delegates pledged to the nominee)
Began at turn of 20th century by progressive reformers
McGovern-Fraser Commission led to selection of delegates through primary elections
Most delegates are chosen through primaries.
Superdelegates: democratic leaders who automatically get a delegate slot
Frontloading is the tendency of states to hold primaries early to capitalize on media attention. New Hampshire is first.
Generally primaries serve as elimination contests.

7. Competing for Delegates
The Nomination Game
Competing for Delegates
Evaluating the Primary and Caucus System
Disproportionate attention to early ones
Money plays too big a role.
Participation in primaries and caucuses is low and unrepresentative; 20 percent vote in primaries.
The system gives too much power to the media.

8. The Nomination Game

9. The Campaign Game The High-Tech Media Campaign
Direct mail used to generate support and money for the candidate
Get media attention through ad budget and “free” coverage
Emphasis on “marketing” a candidate
News stories focus more on the “horse race” than substantive policy issues.

10. Organizing the Campaign
The Campaign Game
Organizing the Campaign
Get a campaign manager
Get a fund-raiser and campaign counsel
Hire media and campaign consultants
Assemble staff and plan logistics
Get research staff, policy advisors, and pollsters
Get a good press secretary
Establish a website
ROMNEY’s OBAMA’s
Deputy Campaign Managers

11. The Campaign Game

12. Money and Campaigning The Maze of Campaign Finance Reforms
Federal Election Campaign Act (1974) Created the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to administer campaign finance laws for federal elections.
Created the Presidential Election Campaign Fund
Provided partial public financing for presidential primaries
Matching funds: Contributions of up to $250 are matched for candidates who meet conditions, such as limiting spending.
Provided full public financing for major party candidates in the general election.
Required full disclosure and limited contributions (not used often).

13. The Maze of Campaign Finance Reforms
Soft Money: political contributions (not subject to contribution limits) earmarked for party-building expenses or generic party advertising.
Hard Money: Political contributions to specific candidates. Must be reported if its over $200. Capped at 2000 individual/ 5000 corporations, adjusted for inflation
The McCain-Feingold Act (Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act 2002) banned soft money, increased amount of individual contributions, and limited “issue ads.”
527s: independent groups that seek to influence political process but are not subject to contribution restricts because they do not directly seek election of particular candidates
Money
And
Campaigning

14. Money and Campaigning
The Proliferation of PACs
Political Action Committees (PACs): created by law in 1974 to allow corporations, labor unions and other interest groups to donate money to campaigns; PACs are registered with and monitored by the FEC.
As of 2006 there were 4,217 PACs.
PACs contributed over $372.1 million to congressional candidates in 2006.
PACs donate to candidates who support their issue.
PACs do not “buy” candidates, but give to candidates who support them in the first place.

15. Money and Campaigning

16. Money and Campaigning Are Campaigns Too Expensive?
Fundraising takes a lot of time.
Incumbents do worse when they spend more money because they need to spend to defeat quality challengers.
The doctrine of sufficiency suggests that candidates need just “enough” money to win, not necessarily “more.”

18. The Impact of Campaigns
Campaigns have three effects on voters:
Reinforcement
Activation
Conversion
Several factors weaken campaigns’ impact on voters:
Selective perception: pay most attention to things we agree with.
Party identification still influence voting behavior
Incumbents begin with sizeable advantage

19. The Nomination Game (part II)
The Convention Send-off
National conventions once provided great drama, but now are a formality, which means less TV time.
Significant rallying point for parties.
Key note speaker on first day of Convention.
Party platform: statement of a party’s goals and policies for next four years
Debated on the second day of the Convention

20. I accept your nomination
The Nomination Game(part II)
Formal nomination of president and vice-president candidates on third and fourth days
Campaign Strategy
The master game plan candidates lay out to guide their Fall electoral campaign.
I accept your nomination

21. The Nomination Game

22. Understanding Nominations & Campaigns
Are Nominations and Campaigns Too Democratic?
Campaigns are open to almost everyone.
Campaigns consume much time and money.
Campaigns promote individualism in American politics.
Do Big Campaigns Lead to an Increased Scope of Government?
Candidates make numerous promises, especially to state and local interests.
Hard for politicians to promise to cut size of government

23. Summary Campaigns are media-oriented and expensive.
Delegates are selected through caucuses & primaries.
Money and contributions from PACs regulated by the FEC are essential to campaigns.
Campaigns reinforce perceptions but do not change minds.
Summary