1. Jaret Matthews AAE 450 Team A
Cost & Risk Assessment
Jaret Matthews
AAE 450
Team A

2. Project Goals & Redundancy
Minimize Cost
95% Probability of safe return of the crew
80% Probability of mission success
Life critical = 3 levels of redundancy
Mission critical = 2 levels of redundancy

3. Cost Analysis Spacecraft/Vehicle Level Cost Model
Top level model derived from NAFCOM
Contacting Science Applications International Corporation – NAFCOM 96
Development, production, and operations cost modeling of aerospace projects

4. Risk Assessment Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)
Comprehensive systems analysis that quantitatively expresses risk of failure
Can be recalculated throughout development and influence design

5. Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Solar panels
function
normally
Batteries
are
charged
Fuel cells
are OK
End States
S= Success F=Failure
Micro-
meteorite
impacts
solar
panels
S=.80
.80
S=.12
.20
S= 95%
.60
S=.028
.40
.35
F= 5%
F=.052
.65

6. Probabilistic Risk Assessment
End States
S= Success F=Failure
Tire stays
inflated
Spare is OK
Jack is OK
Tires
roll
over
road
hazard
S=.05
.05
S= 51%
S=.456
.95
.80
.60
.40
F=.304
F= 49%
.20
F=.19

7. Special skills
AAE590K
AAE590C
AutoCAD
Bryce 3D

8. Bryce 3D