1. Potentials & Future Integration to the Energy System.
Role of Biomass in the Energy Market of Western Balkans, Moldova and Ukraine.
Potentials & Future Integration to the Energy System.
Centre for Renewable Energy Sources – CRES
C. Perakis
Main aim the formation of repsective policy in these countries
Funded by:
3rd International Scientific Conference on Energy & Climate Change
Athens, 7-8 October 2010

2. Project team CRES C. Panoutsou; C. Perakis; V. Papandreou; S. Ntoulas
Albania
A. Saraci; T. Thimjo (NANR)
BiH
P. Gvero (Banja Luka University); S. Petrovic (IGT)
Croatia
J. Domac (REGEA)
FYROM
K. Popovski (MANU)
Montenegro
V. Nikcevic
Serbia
D. Stojiljkovic; B. Glavonjic (Belgrade University)
Moldova
C. Bordeianu (CAPMU)
Ukraine
T. Zheliezna; G. Geletukha (SEC Biomass LTD)
3rd International Scientific Conference on Energy & Climate Change
Athens, 7-8 October 2010

3. Biomass potential estimation Approach
Technical Available Potential
Competitive uses Availability constrains Costs
Bottom up
Theoretical Potential
Reference year: 2008
Wastes
Fuelwood
Residual Biomass
Energy Crops
Wood Industry Residues
Agro Industry Residues
Data sources
National statistics
Recent literature
National Experts
Forest Residues
Fuelwood
Wood Industry
Agro Industry
Agricultural Residues
Composition/ Availability
Μιλάω μόνο για τα αριστερά
Supply – Demand interactions
National experts: statistics validation; main assumptions
Present results for residual biomass plus fuelwood.
The enrgy crops scenarios and the MSW are on a final validation stage
Energy crops (types, yields)
Cutting/ Thinning /
Yield, Residues
Biomass feedstocks
Residual biomass
Fuelwood
Energy crops
MSW (organic fraction)
Forestry - Wood
Crops, Yields
Crop Land
Set aside Land Pasture ,
Forests
MSW
Land Use

4. Countries’ biomass technical potential (PJ)
3rd International Scientific Conference on Energy & Climate Change
Athens, 7-8 October 2010

5. Current biomass use in relation to the potential
1st slide: porportion of biomass potential that is currently used.
Official statistics may include unregistered fuelwood. Incoherent statistics/ Studies show a much greater consumption in some countries.
On top of that there are several estimations that
3rd International Scientific Conference on Energy & Climate Change
Athens, 7-8 October 2010

6. Biomass potentials as % of TPES
Next slide: breakdown to agro and forestry
3rd International Scientific Conference on Energy & Climate Change
Athens, 7-8 October 2010

7. Relative contribution of agriculture & forestry
to the biomass potentials as % of TPES
37%
3rd International Scientific Conference on Energy & Climate Change
Athens, 7-8 October 2010

8. Biomass potential estimation at a regional (NUTS 3) level
Moldova
Livestock residues
Technical potential (PJ)
3rd International Scientific Conference on Energy & Climate Change
Athens, 7-8 October 2010

9. Bio-energy demand analysis
Biofuels for road transport
10% share (energy content) by 2020/15% by 2030
Mix of 1st & 2nd generation
Co-firing
5% by mass of current use of solid fuel PP and DH units
Woody biomass & energy crops
Biogas
Decentralized CHP
No pumping to natural gas grid
Livestock residues
CHP
Decentralized CHP units
Woody biomass, straw, energy crops
Scenarios cover 4 end uses
low share of 2nd gen in 2020 (95% 1st gen); high in 2030
Εξατάζουμε τη δυνατότητα του δυναμικού βιομάζας να καλύψει το στόχο 5% σε σύγκαυση
Up to which point they can meet
3rd International Scientific Conference on Energy & Climate Change
Athens, 7-8 October 2010

10. Example of preliminary outcomes for BioFuels in Moldova
Road Transport Bio-fuels
Projections using data for CEE countries from EC’s “EU Energy Trends to 2030”
Targets equal ~2,5 PJ for 2020 and 3,4 PJ for 2030
Land requirements for own production:
Scen1 – 80,4 kha
Scen 2 – 69 kha

11. Conclusions
Fuelwood and residual biomass potential ranges from 4 – 521 PJ in the under study countries.
Agricultural biomass is dominant in UA, MD, SR and forest biomass in BA, ME, while in the rest both sectors contribute similar potentials.
Biomass potential ranges from 9 – 17% of TPES with the exception of Moldova (43%)
Regional level of analysis gives the opportunity to identify areas with high biomass concentration for future investment.
Current potential from residual biomass could contribute significantly to co-firing or existing DH plants in the immediate future.
Biofuels from conventional crops (1st gen.) not well developed but with good potential for 2020.
3rd International Scientific Conference on Energy & Climate Change
Athens, 7-8 October 2010

12. Recommendations for Future work
Improve statistical coherence for energy, agriculture and forestry.
Harmonization with EU27
Cost analysis for well defined biomass to energy and fuel chains.
Account for competition and alternative markets
Value of co-products
Improved energy systems modeling analysis.
Bankable projects in the short and medium term.
Bankable projects: define and perform pre-feasibility studies
3rd International Scientific Conference on Energy & Climate Change
Athens, 7-8 October 2010

13. Thank you
Bankable projects: define and perform pre-feasibility studies
3rd International Scientific Conference on Energy & Climate Change
Athens, 7-8 October 2010