1. How Long Will It Take You To Catch A Fish?
Agile Estimating

2. What To Expect Agile Estimating Reaffirming old concepts
Introducing new thinking
Not an Agile intro
Not about Scrum, Kanban, or other Agile methods, although leaning a bit on Scrum
Participation - Sharing
9/17/2018
Nikitas Kalantjakos

3. Today’s Map Agile Estimating What’s Up? Estimating & Value
Traditional Estimating
Agile Estimating
9/17/2018
Nikitas Kalantjakos

4. What’s Up? Projects Are Tough!
30% of web-development teams deliver projects late or over-budget
Ruby development shop, New Bamboo
84% of Kickstarter projects missed their target delivery dates. - CNNMoney
Recent studies have shown an average of 66% IT project failure rate, with 52% of the projects being cancelled, and 82% being delivered late. - “A Holistic Approach For Understanding Project Management”, Univ of Michigan
9/17/2018
Nikitas Kalantjakos

5. KickStarter
Where is it?
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Nikitas Kalantjakos

6. Why This Track Record? What’s Up? Uncertainty Change Multi-Tasking
Near-Sightedness
Estimating Focus
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Nikitas Kalantjakos

7. Targeted Project Completion Date
What’s Up?
Locked-In
Current Salary
What’s The Difference?
Targeted Project Completion Date
Estimate
9/17/2018
Nikitas Kalantjakos

8. An Estimate Is… What’s Up? Well, an estimate! It’s Wrong!
It’s My Perception
It’s A Wish
It’s A Need!
It’s A Guess!
9/17/2018
Nikitas Kalantjakos

9. How Do We Typically Treat An Estimate?
What’s Up?
How Do We Typically Treat An Estimate?
A Firm Commitment?
A Contract?
PCR-Enabled?
A False Sense Of Security?
9/17/2018
Nikitas Kalantjakos

10. What’s Up?
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Nikitas Kalantjakos

11. What’s Up? We all know this, and yet…. Cone Of Uncertainty 9/17/2018
Nikitas Kalantjakos

12. What’s Up?
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Nikitas Kalantjakos

13. Too Many Variables! What’s Up? Requirements Availability
Knowledge-Skills
Priorities
…….
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Nikitas Kalantjakos

14. What’s Up?
I Was Wrong
Weighted Average
Unintelligent contingency padding
PERT + Standard Deviation
Goalpost estimating
Rigid change control
End-to-End planning
You can’t beat these odds with more structure and rigor!
You can, by engaging People & by having the right Focus!
9/17/2018
Nikitas Kalantjakos

15. What’s Up?
Oh My!
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Nikitas Kalantjakos

16. What’s Up?
Suggesting that we have knowledge of, and that we can control all of the variables is akin to believing that we can accurately predict the future!
It’s like knowing when…
9/17/2018
Nikitas Kalantjakos

17. …You will catch the next fish!
What’s Up?
The Big One!
…You will catch the next fish!
Rare!
4-Foot
100-Pound
Yes! We make these commitments!
Carp
9/17/2018
Nikitas Kalantjakos

18. In light of this: What Do You Think? Estimating & Value
Should we estimate at all?
Does estimating even add any value?
What Do You Think?
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Nikitas Kalantjakos

19. Voice Of The Customer Estimating & Value NNVA Minimize Effort
Maximize Impact CI
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Nikitas Kalantjakos

20. Estimating Estimating & Value Boundaries Choices Strive Priority
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Nikitas Kalantjakos

21. Estimating & Value So, go ahead: Estimate
Don’t spend a lot of time doing it
Use a consistent method (lightweight)
Get better at it over time
Don’t treat it as a firm contract
Expect change
9/17/2018
Nikitas Kalantjakos

22. Estimating & Value
How?
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Nikitas Kalantjakos

23. Traditional Estimating
Plan-Driven
End-to-End
Preservation
Rigid ∆-Control
Demotivating
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Nikitas Kalantjakos

24. Traditional Estimating
Days - Hours
Your Time My Time
Parkinson’s
Time-Based
Student’s Syndrome
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Nikitas Kalantjakos

25. Agile Estimating First: Second: My message is not about pure Agile!
It’s about continually striving for higher team performance
Faster – Better – Cheaper – Happier
Second:
Applies to different Agile methods
No time to Scrum…
9/17/2018
Nikitas Kalantjakos

26. Drivers Agile Estimating Value-Driven People-Powered Dev Cadence
Iterative
Incremental
Relative
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Nikitas Kalantjakos

27. Estimate Value Delivery
Agile Estimating
As a (role), I want to (action), so that I can (benefit).
Context
We estimate user stories
Estimate Value Delivery
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Nikitas Kalantjakos

28. User Story Agile Estimating Business Value Feature Slice
Acceptance Criteria
Done-Done!
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Nikitas Kalantjakos

29. More Context Agile Estimating Iterate Increment Jeff Patton 9/17/2018
Nikitas Kalantjakos

30. Highly structured estimating techniques not necessary here!
Agile Estimating
More Context
Focus on a Delivery Cadence
Highly structured estimating techniques not necessary here!
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
Foundational
Iteration 0
Feature-Set 1
Iteration 1
Feature-Set 2
Iteration 2
Feature-Set 3
Iteration 3
Pre-Release
Iteration 4
Release
Potentially delivering value every 2-4 weeks (Sprint – Iteration – Increment leading to a Release)
9/17/2018
Nikitas Kalantjakos

31. Agile Estimating Agile teams estimate: User story (foundational)
How many user stories ‘fit’ in a sprint (velocity)
How many sprints are necessary to deliver value
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Nikitas Kalantjakos

32. Agile Estimating Another way to look at this: microsoft.com 9/17/2018
Nikitas Kalantjakos

33. Agile Estimating And Another Way: Iteration 1 SP User-Story 1 28
User-Story 3 3
Initial Velocity 13
Iteration 2 SP
User-Story 4 5
User-Story 5 8
Velocity 13
Iteration 3 SP
User-Story 6 5
User-Story 7 8
Velocity 13
Iteration 4 SP
User-Story 8 2
User-Story 9 1
User-Story 10 5
Velocity 8
9/17/2018
Nikitas Kalantjakos

34. Agile Estimating Agile teams keep it light (VA): 9/17/2018
Nikitas Kalantjakos

35. Agile Estimating UserStory2 Relative Estimating & The User Story
Remember, time-based estimating is wrought with inconsistencies; too idealistic
Instead of estimating in Days or Hours:
Estimate each user story against other user stories
Size each story using any scale you like
UserStory2
UserStory1
UserStory3
UserStory4
9/17/2018
Nikitas Kalantjakos

36. Relative Estimating Agile Estimating Story Points T-Shirt Sizes
What scale you use is up to you & the team.
Relative Estimating
Story Points
T-Shirt Sizes
Dog Breeds
Hybrid
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Nikitas Kalantjakos

37. Agile Estimating Modified Fibonacci Story Point Scale
½, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, 100
When estimating, each user story is assigned one of these values, based upon effort/complexity
Start with a relatively small story (not the smallest) and assign it the value of ‘2’
Select another user story and if it is estimated to be twice the effort/complexity of the first story, assign it a value of ‘5’… 2
UserStory1
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Nikitas Kalantjakos

38. (Perceived Effort & Complexity)
Agile Estimating
Story Pointing 2
(Perceived Effort & Complexity)
UserStory1
UserStory3
Sizing Standard
Is it twice as big?
UserStory2
UserStory4
How this is done is very important…
9/17/2018
Nikitas Kalantjakos

39. Agile Estimating Story Planning – Team Estimating Using SPs:
The team deliberately gets together to size and plan user stories
This can take the form of a story planning meeting or iteration planning session
For each user story, the core team:
Discusses acceptance criteria
Considers development approach, challenges, risks
Compares it to an other baseline story
Agrees upon a story point value
9/17/2018
Nikitas Kalantjakos

40. Discussing the outliers is a HUGE value-add
Agile Estimating 1 2 3 5 8 13 20 40
100
Team Story Pointing – Agreeing Upon A SP Value
Each team member has a deck of cards representing the agreed upon SP scale
After story is discussed, the facilitator calls for a vote
Each team member selects the card of choice (without revealing it) and places it face-down on the table
Facilitator calls for a show of selected cards from all
Discuss the outliers (HUGE!!)
Revote if necessary, until there is general consensus
Discussing the outliers is a HUGE value-add
(for new teams)
9/17/2018
Nikitas Kalantjakos

41. Important Agile Estimating Follow The Steps Outliers Are Great!
Respect
Improve
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Nikitas Kalantjakos

42. Outlier convergence through knowledge acquisition!
Agile Estimating
Outlier convergence through knowledge acquisition!
9/17/2018
Nikitas Kalantjakos

43. Agile Estimating Other Considerations:
Make it your own without diluting benefit
As team matures, evolve the process
Speed pointing
Update scale
Assess team estimating competency over time
9/17/2018
Nikitas Kalantjakos

44. Agile Estimating UserStory2 Speed Pointing for mature teams: 2 3 5 813
UserStory1
UserStory3
UserStory2
UserStory6
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Nikitas Kalantjakos

45. Agile Estimating Once stories have been estimated
Select and include them in sprints
Build a tentative release plan
Inspect-&-Adapt the plan after every increment
9/17/2018
Nikitas Kalantjakos

46. Agile Estimating
It’s not about ‘How Long It Will Take You To Catch A Fish?”
The better question:
Which fish are the most valuable for us to catch every 2-4 weeks?
High-performing teams get very good (and very predictable) at estimating which fish they can deliver with every sprint.
9/17/2018
Nikitas Kalantjakos

47. Agile Estimating
Focusing on ‘dates’ alone makes us miss them, along with a lot of other unwanted results
Agile Estimating isn’t perfect
I’m sure something even better will evolve
Focusing on ‘dynamically engaging people’, and on delivering great value fast is where it is today
9/17/2018
Nikitas Kalantjakos

48. Thank You! Nikitas Kalantjakos 402-301-7118 nkalantjakos@cox.net
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Nikitas Kalantjakos

49. Extra!

50. User Story Estimating
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Nikitas Kalantjakos

51. Let’s Try It!
As a website user, I want to reset my password, so that I can prevent others from gaining access.
9/17/2018
Nikitas Kalantjakos