1. Remote Sensing Industry Forecast
Phase I Highlights
Phase II Status
Mike Thomas NASA Acting Director GADD
Ron Rabin, Lockheed Martin
Charles Mondello, Pictometry

2. Presentation Overview
Space Act Agreement
Highlights of the Forecast Phase 1 activity and results
Gross revenue survey results
Forecast Phase 2 plans and activity to date
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3. Background
In August 1999, ASPRS and NASA's Commercial Remote Sensing Program (CRSP) entered into a 5-year Space Act Agreement (SAA), combining resources and expertise to:
Baseline the Remote Sensing Industry (RSI) based on GEIA Model
Develop a 10-Year RSI market forecast and attendant processes
Provide improved information for decision makers
Government
Academic
Commercial
Stake Holders
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4. The Plan
Phase I Characterize and Baseline Forecast of the U.S. RSI (Dec 2000)
Phase II Characterize and Identify End-user RS/GIS Needs and Requirements (Jan 2002)
Phase III Validate I and II (Dec 2003) Technology Assessment
Phase IV Market Forecast (Dec 2004)
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5. Remote Sensing Industry
Platforms & Sensors
Data
Collection
Phase 1
Data Processing
Support
Elements
Industry
Intermediaries
Hardware
Software
Etc.
Business Segments
VARs
Consultants
Etc.
End-User
Phase 2
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6. Forecast Framework Customer Segments Business Segments Market Segments
Data Collection
Data Processing
Support
Elements
Intermediaries
Environmental
Global Security
National/
Transportation
Agriculture
Civil Gov’t
Exploration/
Resources
Forestry
Insurance
Mapping
Real Estate
Telecomms
Utilities
Entertainment/
Media
Commercial
Government
Customer
Segments
Academia
Business Segments
Market Segments
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7. Forecast Process Interview Literature Search Survey ANALYSIS $
20%
21%
17%
Interview
Literature
Search
Survey
ANALYSIS $
Time
Forecast $
Findings
Conclusions
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8. ASPRS/NASA Remote Sensing Industry Analysis and Forecast 2000-2010
Overview of Phase I Results
ASPRS/NASA Remote Sensing Industry Analysis and Forecast
Commercial
Academia
Government
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9. Participants Aug 1999 - Feb 2001 ASPRS SAA LMSO
Mike Thomas Acting Director
Geospace Applications Development Directorate
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10. Phase I Characterize and Baseline Forecast of the U.S. RSI (Dec 2000)
Commercial
Interviews
Phase I Characterize and Baseline Forecast of the U.S. RSI (Dec 2000)

11. Commercial Sector Interviews
Companies
operate in
multiple
business
segments
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12. Relevant Interview Findings
Technology: Innovations needed to...
Speed availability of information
Provide information valued by user
Develop system of systems that integrate/merge applications, and provide multi-disciplinary solutions
Lower costs
Lack of Customer/Potential Customer Knowledge may be inhibiting
Market Growth
Applications based Marketing and Demonstrations may help
Workforce education
Requirements for entry-level persons exceed supply
How many students do we train and retain? (foreign students train in US, return
home)
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13. Relevant Interview Findings
Competition
The international playing field is not level.
U.S. Companies are not "part of the Government" as are foreign competitors
Foreign competitor's workforces train in U.S.
Smaller companies have trouble "staying in the game” due to investment costs
Issue: US Government role? Industry role?
Governmental influence is pervasive...
Legislation and policies restricting U.S. company foreign sales; but do not hinder foreign companies
Government is predominant purchaser of data
Mergers with foreign companies are problematic
Standardization
Issues: Who should lead? Is anybody now? Is anybody now? Could/Should USG and Industry become closer “Partners” & “Speak with one voice?
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14. Phase I Characterize and Baseline Forecast of the U.S. RSI (Dec 2000)
Commercial
Survey
Phase I Characterize and Baseline Forecast of the U.S. RSI (Dec 2000)

15. 12% of ASPRS’ membership responded
Survey Sample Size
12% of ASPRS’ membership responded
To fall 2000 online survey
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16. Commercial Respondent Profile
Respondents are predominantly middle/upper management level with a representative mix of technical and non-technical
* Respondents could answer more than once.
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17. Estimated RSI Sales (1998-2001, 2005, and 2010)
Estimated RSI Sales based on respondent inputs
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18. Estimated Geospatial Sales III 1998 to 2010
Forecast Baseline
Based on calculating the average annual growth rate from (respondent estimates) and applying that rate to the out-years
AAGR
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19. Organization’s Primary Role (Business Segment)
Commercial respondents often operate
in multiple business segments
(227 respondents; 298 responses;
5 respondents selected none ) 99 95 60 44 20 40 80
100
120
Data
Processing
Data Collection
Industry
Intermediary*
Support
Elements
Primary Role
Number of Responses
Companies
operate in
multiple
business
segments
* Industry Intermediaries include VARs.
Data
Processsing
33%
Data Collection
32%
Industry
Intermediary*
20%
Support
Elements
15%
Companies are most involved in
Data Collection & Data Processing
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20. Geospatial Activities as Primary Business*73
125 89 20 40 60 80
100
120
140
Image Based GIS
Photogrammetry
Remote Sensing
Geospatial Activities
Number of Responses
* Respondents may choose more than one.
Again, companies tend to
operate in more than one
business activity.
Image Based GIS
25%
Photogrammetry
44%
Remote Sensing
31%
Currently, Photogrammetry is the largest Primary Business in the RSI
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21. Percent of Sales By Geospatial Activity
Is this due to marketing practices? Demand? Customer Awareness?
Is there opportunity in the lowest % of sales market segments?
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22. Primary Platform Use CY 2000
Aerial
Space
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23. Geospatial Activity in CY 2000
Sales
In 2000, the Geospatial Activity that represented the primary business of RS Companies is Photogrammetry
R&D
However, Remote Sensing was receiving most R&D emphasis.
Does this portend of future Trend?
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24. Company Size Smaller Companies are in the Majority in the U.S. RSI
Profile similar to MAPPS “Wages” Study
Smaller Companies are in the Majority in the U.S. RSI
About 20% are estimated at 10 or less employees
About 55% are estimated at under 100 employees
Over 80% are estimated at under 500 employees
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25. Employees in the Core Companies of the RSI
Based on analysis of respondent estimates
And given that, based on ASPRS Data,
there are about 220 “Core Companies” in
the U.S. RSI, then ……..
There Are About 200K Employees in the U.S. RSI
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26. Estimated Number Employed in Geospatial Activities
70%
22% 8%
These are Assumed to be the Core of “Trained GIS Professionals”
40% of the Companies Average 5 “Trained GIS Professionals”
30% of the Companies Average 20
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27. Employees in the Core Companies of the RSI
Based On Analysis of Respondent Estimates …
There Are About 200K Employees in the U.S. RSI of Which
About 17.5K (8.75%), On Average, Are “Trained GIS
Professionals” Directly Involved in Geospatial Activities
We Suspect That the Density of “Trained GIS Professionals”
Decreases as Company Size Increases
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28. Most Difficult Job Skills to Hire
Disconnect?
Will Certification Help Solve?
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29. CY 2000 Allocation of R&D by Geospatial Activities
Estimated Annual Government R&D Investments
$ CY 2000 Constant
Train/Educate USG Employees: $35M
Research New Types RS Data: $150M
New Types Satellite-based RS Data: $145M
New Types Aircraft-based RS Data: $180M
Purchase RS Data for Operational Applications: $185M
RS Technology: $775M
Total $1470M
Is R&D driving a transition from Photogrammetry to RS?
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30. Summary and Conclusions
The Remote Sensing Industry will Grow at about 13% Per Year, Reaching about $6B in Sales by 2010.
Companies in the RSI are multi-faceted.
more than one Market Segment;
more than one Business Segment;
more than one Geo-Spatial Activity
Currently, Across All Sectors, the most Active Markets/Apps/Activities/ Market Segments are:
Mapping/Geography
Environment
Civil Government
National/Global Security
Transportation
Less Attended Market Segments may be an Opportunity area (i.e., Utilities, Real Estate, Insurance, Telecommunications, Agriculture, Forestry, Entertainment/media)
Government data distribution policies contribute to a Perception that they may be adversely effecting commercial interests
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31. Summary and Conclusions
Photogrammetry is Currently the Largest area of geo-spatial activity. However, R&D Investments indicate that a Shift to Remote Sensing may be in process
Most RSI Companies are small and do not invest in R&D
Commercial Survey and Interview Results are mutually reinforcing
There are about 200K employees in the “Core Companies” of the Commercial Sector of the RSI of which 8.75% (about (17K) are Directly Involved in Geo-Spatial Activities.
Ratio is probably higher in smaller companies than in larger ones
College/University Outputs may Not be Meeting Hiring Requirements of Industry.
At Colleges/Universities offering RS curricula, only About 1% of the Student population is enrolled in RS programs. Support for these programs, therefore, is small
Industry competes with Government for personnel resources
Government and/or private sector support are probably needed
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32. Government Survey rr
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33. Government Respondent Profile
Data are probably biased toward Federal level
State and Local interests are reflected
Relevance to Regional, Tribal or Other levels questionable
About
36% of respondents are scientists/researchers
24% Executive Director/Senior Manager
23% Program Staff
17% Technicians
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34. Government User Estimate of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing Activities Change 2000-2004
More than 80% estimate that photogrammetry and remote sensing activities will grow over the next five years; over 30% estimate substantial to dramatic growth
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35. Most Important Mission
Mapping is the most Important Government Mission followed by
Earth & Natural Science Research; Natural Resource Management; and Transportation
Health Services, Insurance, Legislative/Legal Enforcement,
Mining, and Telecommunications dropped out.
Number of Responses
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*Check 1 of previous 3

36. Most Important Mission Activities
Federal level has across the board interest, States appear to be focused more on Natural Resource Management and Utilities.
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37. Overall External Factors
Most Likely to Affect Mission Activities *
Funding/Budget Changes is the Most Affective External Factor and Technology Evolution is a Key Factor
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* Pick up to 3

38. Top Affective External Factors:
By Government Section, External Factors Most Likely to Affect Mission Activities *
Top Affective External Factors:
State and Local Levels: Funding/Budget; Technology; and Customer
States also concerned with: Commercialization/Privatization; Politics; and New Legislation
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*Pick up to 3

39. Do these policies adversely effect commercial interests,
Federal Agency Policies Re: Data Access and Distribution
of Its Own Remote Sensing Data Holdings
Do these policies adversely effect commercial interests,
Or do they contribute to a Perception that they do ?
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40. Summary and Conclusions
Most Active RS Markets/Apps/Activities
(Generically grouped), (NOT rank ordered)
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41. Government Survey Conclusions
Government activities in photogrammetry and remote sensing will increase through This will probably have positive growth effect on RSI Market
Budget, Technology, and Customer Needs appear to be factors most likely to affect mission activities; Political Considerations follow
A large % of respondents “Don’t Know” how much will be invested in various RS-related areas out to 2004; probably related to the strong relevance of budget affecting mission activities
However, investment in RS-related areas will probably continue at present levels out to 2004
Government hiring in remote sensing and photogrammetry will remain at current levels
The assertion that government competes with the private sector in the distribution of RS data gains credence based on agency policies
Government management structure will probably remain as is through 2004
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42. Ten Year Remote Sensing Industry (RSI) Forecast Gross Revenue Surveycm
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43. Survey Background Conducted November - December 2000
CEO/CFO Level Responses
25% Return Rate
Results Correlate Well with Phase I Interviews/Web Survey
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44. Summary Gross Revenue, $K $120,000 $1,000,000 $3,900 $400 $1,000 $1
Low
Median
High
Average is Approximately $10,000
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45. Growth % Growth over Base Year Growth Rate, % Calendar Year 59% 60 47%50
38% 40
29%
Growth Rate, % 30
18% 20 10
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Calendar Year
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46. Projected Revenues Revenues, $M Calendar Year $3,500 $3,000 $2,500
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500 $0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Calendar Year
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47. Market Elements Satellite Other Aerial % Gross Revenues 31% 28% 41%
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48. Business Segments % Gross Revenues Data Acquisition 20% Value Added
Resale
Data Processing
16%
24%
40%
HW/SW
% Gross Revenues
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49. Market Segments % Total Revenues National/Global Security 41% Mapping
17%
Civil Government
15%
Transportation 9%
Environmental 4%
Utilities 4%
Agriculture 2%
Exploration/Resources 2%
Forestry 2%
Telecommunications 2%
Entertainment/Media
<1%
Insurance
<1%
Real Estate
<1%
Other
<1%
% Total Revenues
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50. Remote Sensing Industry Phase II Plan Overview Goal
Characterize and Identify End-User
RS/GIS Needs and Requirements r rr
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51. Participants Phase I Partnership Phase II Partnership MAPPS ASPRS LMSO
Geospace Applications
and Development
Directorate (GADD)
SAA
NSGIC
Mike Thomas Acting Director
Geospace Applications Development Directorate
ASPRS
SAA
LMSO
Phase I
Partnership
Phase II
Partnership
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52. Mission With regard to U.S. Remote Sensing end-products, goods or
services: Determine Manager and End-user Needs for remotely sensed information, in non-technical terms. Characterize these Needs as Requirements in order to provide a base-line for technology assessment and road-mapping in support of Applications assessment, development, validation and demonstration
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53. Forecast Definitions End-users are the Target Sample for Phase II
END-USERS : persons who use remotely sensed (data) (information) to do their job. They do not have purchasing/acquisition authority and do not have management responsibilities.
USER NEEDS: Remotely sensed (data) (information) needed by the END-USERS to do their job/accomplish their Mission. NEEDS are the basis for developing REQUIREMENTS.
REQUIREMENTS: Remotely sensed (data) (information) that meet END-USERS NEEDS
MANAGER – Person who’s primary job is managing the productivity of end-users and who can (spend) (allocate) (authorize) dollars to purchase/acquire remotely sensed (data) (information). This includes small business owners.
End-users are the Target Sample for Phase II
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54. Customer Forecast Framework
Requirements Areas
Sectors
Government
Community Growth
& Infrastructure
Business/ Demographics
Private
Environmental Assessment
Application Areas
Academia
Disaster Management
Resource Management
Utilities
Civil Gov’t
Exploration/
Resources
Forestry
Insurance
Agriculture
Security/Defense
National/Global
Real Estate
Telecomms
General Mapping*
Entertainment/
Media
Environmental
Transportation
Business Demographics
National/Global Security/ Defense
* Includes: Engineering, GIS, Land Surveying
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55. Collection and Analysis Goals
1. Identify and Characterize the MANAGER and END-USER
2. Identify the MANAGER and END-USER Job NEEDS
3. Base-line End-user Needs
4. Determine Job and/or Needs-driven REQUIREMENTS as Derived from End-user Baseline
5. Based on Previous Analysis Assess Current, Emergent and Future Technology Capabilities to Meet NEEDS, REQUIREMENTS, and/or APPLICATIONS
6. Determine If Current APPLICATIONS Provide Cost Effective Solutions to NEEDS and REQUIREMENTS as Derived by Previous Analysis Goal 4
Analysis
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56. Remote Sensing Industry
Data Collection
Phase II
Goals
Objectives
Questions/Probes
Contact Plan
Government
NSGIC/Susan Lambert & Leslie Wollack
Commercial
MAPPS/Clark Nelson
Academia
ASPRS/George Hepner
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57. MAPPS/ASPRS - St. Petersburg 31 Oct - 2 Nov
Phase II Project Plan
Key Events as of 1 April 2001:
NSGIC Presentation 20 April
ASPRS/MAPPS Presentation
25 April
1 May-31 Dec (T)
Finalize Questions and Collection Instruments
Execute Data Collection Plan
Pretest
Finalize
Collect
Analyze Data 31 July-1Q 2002
Preliminary Reports
MAPPS July
NSGIC 7-12 Sept.
MAPPS/ASPRS 31 Oct.-2 Nov
Final Phase II Reports 2002
MAPPS/ASPRS - St. Petersburg 31 Oct - 2 Nov
ASPRS - DC April, 2002
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58. Summary
Forecast is on Plan. Phase II Focuses on User Requirements
Addition of NSGIC and MAPPS Will Enhance and Enrich
the Effort and the Outputs of the Study
WELCOME
Plenty of Room for Individual Participants from the
Participating Organizations.
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