1. 1. INTRODUCTION
Thank your host and any event sponsors or partners. Then, briefly introduce yourself if your host has not already done so.
If time allows, have audience members introduce themselves by sharing:
1. What brought them to your talk,
2. One thing they are grateful for, or
3. One thing they love about the place where they live.
Give a brief overview of your presentation:
- First, the context for Transition.
- Second, what Transition is.
- Third, your local initiative (if applicable).
- Fourth, visioning and Q&A (if time allows).

2. THE LONG EMERGENCY PEAK ENERGY CLIMATE ECONOMIC INSTABILITY CHANGE
Our planet is in crisis. There are three main aspects of this crisis that Transition recognizes:
CLICK > Peak Energy,
CLICK > Climate Change, and
CLICK > Economic Instability.
CLICK > Triangle appears.
CLICK > The Long Emergency (a term coined by author James Howard Kuntsler).
I usually don't spend time on climate change or economic instability, because most people are already somewhat familiar with these issues. This allows me to use what little time I have to discuss peak energy.

3. 3. PEAK OIL A one-slide crash course:
Foreground, in Blue: Global discoveries peaked around 1960 and have been declining since, even despite huge advances in technology. We are currently consuming 3-5 barrels of oil for every new one we discover.
Middle, in Green: Conventional oil production steadily increased from the beginning of the industry until about 2008 when, according to the International Energy Agency's 2010 World Energy Outlook report, it peaked.
Background, in Red: Demand for oil continues to grow, particularly from rapidly industrializing countries like China and India. It doesn't take an economist to tell you that when demand begins to outstrip supply, prices go up.

4. 4. UNCONVENTIONAL OIL
This slide can be exchanged with a picture of mountaintop removal mining, the Canadian tar sands, or fracking for natural gas, depending on where you live.
The main point here is that, although there is a fossil fuel renaissance of sorts happening throughout North America right now, that doesn't mean peak oil was nothing to worry about.
In fact, the increase in use of unconventional fuels is a direct result of peak oil: high prices have made it possible to exploit resources that were not viable economically before.
Unconventional fossil fuels are not only more expensive to get out of the ground and to market, but also cause much more environmental damage than their conventional counterparts. Truly, these are the scrapings of the fossil fuel barrel.

5. 5. CUBIC MILE OF OIL
Chart courtesy of the Stanford Research Institute. See A Cubic Mile of Oil: Realities and Options for Averting the Looming Global Energy Crisis (2010) by Hewitt Crane, Edwin Kinderman, and Ripudaman Malhotra for more information.
One cubic mile is roughly equivelent to the current rate of global crude oil consumption per year.
Important: The numbers you see on this chart correspond to how many Three Gorges Dams, solar panels, etc. would need to be built each year for 50 years in order to generate the amount of energy necessary to replace the cubic mile of oil. For example, it would take approximately 5,200 coal-fired power plants (not 104) to do this.
The point here is not to abandon all hope, but rather to impress upon your audience that solving our energy crisis might be more complex and difficult than they previously thought.

6. 6. FUTURE SCENARIOS
Chart courtesy of David Holmgren, co-originator of the Permaculture concept. For more information, see Future Scenarios: How Communities Can Adapt to Peak Oil and Climate Change (2009) by David Holmgren.
This slide connects peak oil to “peak everything,” and provides a historical perspective on our predicament.
Techno-Fantasy: The delusion that infinite growth can occur on a finite planet.
Crash: What we're working to avoid.
Green-Tech Stability: Al Gore-style environmentalism.
Earth Stewardship: The scenario that Transition believes is our best option.

7. 7. PEAK OIL MOUNTAIN
The next two slides are about how we can look at energy descent as either an unwanted reality we simply have to bear or an opportunity to reconnect with what is most important in life.
From The Transition Handbook: From Oil Dependency to Local Resilience (2008) by Rob Hopkins:
“When we look at the standard Hubbert curve, we see a mountain: a rise followed by a fall, an ascent followed by a descent. There is a sense that we have reached the peak and that now we have to grit our teeth for the long journey home, akin to an overexcited child at a birthday party being told it is time to go home.” (p.93)

8. 8. TROUGH OIL Continued from previous slide:
“Perhaps the sense that we need to instil could come from turning this much-viewed graphic upside down. We might more usefully use the term 'trough oil.'
Rather than a mountain, we could view the fossil fuel age as a fetid lagoon into which we have dived. We had been told that great fortunes lay buried at the bottom of the lagoon if only we were able to dive deeply enough to find them. As time has passed we have dived deeper and deeper, into thicker, blacker, stickier liquid, and now we find ourselves hitting against the bottom... Perhaps arriving in a powered-down world will have the same sense of nourishment and elation as finally breaking through the surface and filling our lungs with fresh morning air, marvelling once again at the beauty around us and the joy of being alive.”

9. 9. HUNZA/RESILIENCE
This is a sketch of apricots drying on rooftops in the Hunza Valley of Pakistan, drawn by the future founder of the Transition movement, Rob Hopkins, in In his introduction to The Transition Handbook, Rob wrote that this was the happiest place he had ever been, but couldn't quite put his finger on why until years later when he identified its special quality as “resilience.”
The concept of resilience is at the very heart of Transition. Here are two different definitions:
1. The ability to take a shock from the outside and not just fall to pieces.
2. A robust health and vitality that can respond creatively to whatever comes its way.

10. 10. KINSALE E.D.A.P.
In 2004, Rob Hopkins (in green) was teaching a two-year permaculture course at Kinsale Further Education College in Ireland. His students built this ampitheatre entirely out of local materials.
Permaculture: began in Austrailia in the 1970's as an attempt at a “permanent agriculture.” Over next few decades, it broadened into “permanent culture.” Rob has described Transition as “community-scale permaculture.”
Class learned about peak oil and created Kinsale 2021: An Energy Descent Action Plan (downloadable at bit.ly/1gc4I7X) in response, following these steps:
1. Establish a Baseline: what is the current state of our community?
2. Create a Vision: what's the best future we can imagine?
3. Backcast: what do we need to do each year to get there?