1. Incident Modeling Capability for Air Releases
Idaho DEQ
Rick Hardy, Sara Strachan,
Wei Zhang
IDHW, Office of Epidemiology & Food Protection
Kris Carter DVM, MPVM
Sponsor: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
9/17/2018

2. Request from State Health Department:
Initially
Immediately following an emergency atmospheric release, accidental or terrorist, can you assist the Idaho Dept. H&W, Office of Epidemiology by:
Mapping affected areas?
Estimating concentrations?
Estimating number of persons affected?
Providing addresses?
Later
Forecast where the contaminant plume will go tomorrow?
i. e. Support Incident Management, evacuations, etc.
Support more realistic planning, training and exercise development
9/17/2018

3. Why not use existing models?
Sources
Met Inputs
Ok for Terrain?
Useful
Range
ALOHA
Spills
Real-time NO
6 km
DOD’s HPAC (SCIPUFF)
WMD
Real-time & Forecast ?
CALPUFF
Spills,fires, WMD
Forecast
YES
Few km to regional
NOAA’s HYSPLIT
10s km to regional
DOE’s ARAC at LLNL
YES?
Local to global
9/17/2018

4. CAMEO/ALOHA Strengths Very fast Good source term module for spills
On-site use
Real-time meteorological data
Ease of use and responder familiarity
Deficiencies
1 hour or 6 km cutoff
No wind shift w/terrain
No fires/plume rise
No particulates
No deposition
No forecast
9/17/2018

5. ALOHA Model
9/17/2018

6. Why not use existing models?
Sources
Met Inputs
Ok for Terrain?
Useful
Range
ALOHA
Spills
Real-time NO
6 km
DOD’s HPAC (SCIPUFF)
WMD
Real-time & Forecast ?
CALPUFF
Spills,fires, WMD
Forecast
YES
Few km to regional
NOAA’s HYSPLIT
10s km to regional
DOE’s ARAC at LLNL
YES?
Local to global
9/17/2018

7. Key Features of this CALPUFF Application
Terrain resolution down to 250m
264 pre-configured source terms
Includes Idaho-specific hazards
Relies on ALOHA source terms for spills
Includes fires, explosions, particulates
Ability to forecast
Outputs affected population estimates and addresses
Includes ground deposition
Initial results very fast (1 hour)
9/17/2018

8. GIS Map & Calculation of Population, Addresses
Air Incident Modeling Steps 1
Met
From UW
Source modeling
MET
Pre-processing
Construct Modeling Domain
Manual input of Domain, Source, Met
Terrain Data
Land Use Data 3 2 4 5
GIS Map & Calculation of Population, Addresses
Run CALPUFF
9/17/2018

9. Variable Modeling Domains/Resolution1
id_4km
CDA_1km
CDA_500m
Lewiston_1km
Lewiston_500m
Lewiston_250m
Riggins_500m
McCall_500m
Boise_1km
TwinFalls_1km
Salmon_1km
Salmon_500m
Pocatello_1km
Pocatello_250m
9/17/2018

10. CALMET.DAT for Specific Domain
Daily Met Processing 2 UW
MM5
12km
and
4km
DEQ
Linux
Cluster
3D.DAT
CALMET.DAT
for
IDAHO
4km
Domain
Transfer
CALMM5
CALMET
Optional (On Demand)
The PSU/NCAR mesoscale model (known as MM5) is a limited-area, nonhydrostatic, terrain-following sigma-coordinate model designed to simulate or predict mesoscale atmospheric circulation.
4GB UW MM5 data will transfer to DEQ every day, need 6 hours to transfer to our Satellite server
Need 8 hours to transfer to linux cluster and process through calmm5 and calmet, produce ready to used met data for Idaho 4km Domain
CALMET
CALMET.DAT for Specific Domain
9/17/2018

11. Pre-Configured Source Terms3
Type
Category
Basis
Model
Spills
Industrial
EPCRA RMPs
ALOHA
Rail
Transp. Stats
Tank Truck
Toxic Fires
Pool/tank
Fuels
NuReg HRR
Waste/Tire
EPA Toxics
HRR/EPA
Warehouse
British HSE
HRR
Intentional
Releases
Aircraft
Ag Spray Info
Eng Calc
Explosive
ANL/ADMLC
River Volatiles
Rail/Truck by River
Transp. Stats/
RiverSpill
Volatile model
9/17/2018

12. Industrial Releases Based on EPA Risk Management Plans (RMPs)
3.5M lbs
9/17/2018

13. Industrial - Catastrophic
Aloha Based Source Parameters
9/17/2018

14. Gravity Flow for Dense Gas Releases
9/17/2018

15. Dense Gas Modeling of Large and Small Anhydrous Ammonia Releases Conclusion: Approximate with enhanced initial puff dimensions
9/17/2018

16. Transportation Sources
9/17/2018

17. Transportation Spills: Rail & Truck
Aloha Based Source Parameters
9/17/2018

18. Pool Fire Scenarios Species Modeled Benzene Formaldehyde Acrolein
Naphthalene
Benzo(a)pyrene
9/17/2018

19. Chemical Warehouse Fire S, Cl combustion by-product emissions and unburned residual toxics
9/17/2018

20. Wastepile/Tire Fires
9/17/2018

21. Aerial Dispersal
9/17/2018

22. Explosive Dispersal (RDD) Sources “Dirty Bombs”
9/17/2018

23. Explosive Dispersal (RDD)
9/17/2018

24. Explosive Dispersal
(ADMLC)
9/17/2018

25. GUI Main Flow Chart 4 Select or Generate Calmet Output Enter Scenario
Description
Enter
Source
Location
Select
Modeling
Domain
Create
Working
Directory
Create
Input
Files
Customize
Source
Term
Select
Source
Term
Output
for
CALVIEW/
Surfer
and
GIS
Run
Calpuff
and
Calpost
Generate
Summary
Final Tune
9/17/2018

26. CALPUFF Incident Modeling Interface
9/17/2018

27. Enter Scenario Name and Description
9/17/2018

28. Enter Source Coordinates
9/17/2018

29. Select Domain/Domain Resolution
9/17/2018

30. Lewiston 1 km resolution selected
9/17/2018

31. Lewiston 500m resolution selected
9/17/2018

32. Select Meteorology file. Process it if needed.
9/17/2018

33. Select Source Category and Template
9/17/2018

34. Revise Scenario to fit Incident Details
9/17/2018

35. Review Scenario. Document Run.
9/17/2018

36. Map output example
9/17/2018

37. Streamlined GIS Outputs
Number of Persons Affected 5
Streamlined GIS Outputs
Census data
Address Ranges
Street address data
9/17/2018

38. Days to complete from scratch
Air Incident Modeling Steps - Before
Met Data
Source modeling
MET
Pre-processing
Construct Modeling Domain
Manual input of Domain, Source, Met
Terrain Data
Land Use Data
GIS Map & Calculation of Population, Addresses
Days to complete from scratch
Run CALPUFF
9/17/2018

39. GIS Map & Calculation of Population, Addresses
Air Incident Modeling Steps - Now
Pre-Configured/
Pre-Processed
Run CALPUFF
Met Data
Source modeling
MET
Pre-processing
Construct Modeling Domain
GUI for Rapid selection of Domain, Source, Met
Terrain Data
Land Use Data
New Interface & Streamlined GIS
GIS Map & Calculation of Population, Addresses
45 – 90 minutes total time!
9/17/2018

40. Example Result: Pocatello Chlorine Simulation
Source location
9/17/2018

41. Preliminary Result
9/17/2018

42. Outputs in 1 hour GIS Map Population Estimates Address Ranges (1 ppm)
9/17/2018

43. Managing Uncertainties
Wind field uncertainty
Field observation of plume or wind direction
On-line met station observation sites
Depict directional uncertainty on maps
Move toward ensemble Met & AQ runs (someday)
Buoyant plume rise for fire sources
Observer reports of plume height/behavior
Inadequate source term knowledge
site specific information from the field is important
Census problems w/work-day populations
9/17/2018

44. Summary A New capability for Idaho
Potential new area for other NW-AirQuest jurisdictions? (i.e. new funding source).
Important to manage met uncertainties!!
Consider UW ensemble products to depict plume probability zones?
9/17/2018