1. The Human Population and Urbanization
Chapter 6

2. Key Concepts Factors affecting population size
Human population problems
Managing population problems
Urban growth
Resource and environmental problems in urban areas
Transportation in urban areas
Achieving sustainable cities

3. Is the World Overpopulated?
billion people by 2050
Limited resources
Environmental impacts (I=PAT)
Some say no- Longer lifespans
Economic growth- stimulated by pop. increase
Religion and population growth
Freedom and population growth
Poverty- 20% people without basic necessities
Ecological footprint
Fig. 6-1, p. 94

4. Is the World Overpopulated?
Click for Current US and World Population
Fig. 6-1, p. 94

5. Factors Affecting Human Population Size
Population change equation
Population change = (Births +Immigration) – (Deaths + Emigration)
Crude birth rate = # live births per 1,000 people per year
Crude death rate = # deaths per 1,000 people per year
Global population growth = 1.2% = 214,000 people per day (97% in developing countries)
Rule of 70: 70/ percentage growth rate = doubling time in years
Doubling time: 70/1.2 = 58 years

6. Average Crude Birth and Death Rates
Average crude birth rate
Average crude death rate
World 21
World’s birth rate = 2.1% 9
World’s death rate = 0.9%
World’s pop. Growth rate = 1.2%
All developed
countries 11 10
All developing
countries 24 8
Developing
countries
(w/o China) 27 9
Crude Growth Rate ÷ 10 = % Growth Rate

7. Average Crude Birth and Death Rates
Average crude birth rate
Average crude death rate
Africa 38 14
Latin
America 22 6
Asia 20 7 18
Oceania 7
United
States 14 8
North
America 14 8 10
Europe 12

8. Current and projected population sizes by region.
Animation
Current and projected population sizes by region.

9. How Did the Human Population Increase So Rapidly?
Human intelligence and adaptation- enabled expansion to diverse habitats & new climate zones
Agriculture - feeds more people per unit area
Medical technologies and sanitation- controls infectious disease

10. Describing Population Changes
Replacement-level fertility= # children a couple must bear to replace themselves (approx )
Total fertility rate (TFR)= average # children woman has in her reproductive years (2005 TFR = 2.7) (TFR in MDCs = 1.6 : LDCs = 3.0)
Projecting global populations: projected pop. = billion Most growth (97%) expected in developing countries
US fertility rates- see figure 6-4, p. 98

11. World Population Projections
Fig. 6-2, p. 96

12. US Fertility Rates ( )
Fig. 6-4, p. 98

13. Major Changes in US Society (1900-2000)
47 years
Life expectancy
77 years 8%
Married women working
outside the home
81%
15%
High school graduates
83%
10%
Homes with flush toilets
98% 2%
Homes with electricity
99%
10%
Living in suburbs
52%
1900 $3
Hourly manufacturing job
wage (adjusted for inflation)
2000
$15
1.2
Homocides per
100,000 people
5.8
Fig. 6-5, p. 99

14. Factors Affecting Birth Rates and Fertility Rates ***
Child labor- very important in developing countries
Cost of raising and educating children - more expensive in developed countries
Availability of pension systems - pensions reduce need for children to support in old age
Urbanization- better access to family planning services in cities
Education and employment of women - TFR drops with increasing education & employment opportunities
Infant mortality rate - Directly proportional to TFR
Average age of marriage- Fewer children when marriage age ≥ 25 years
Abortion- 46 million abortions yearly (20 million illegal)
Availability of birth control
Culture, religious values, and traditions

15. Very Effective Birth Control Methods
Extremely Effective
Total abstinence
100%
Sterilization
99.6%
Vaginal ring
98-99%
Highly Effective
IUD with slow-release
hormones
98%
IUD plus spermicide
98%
Vaginal pouch
(“female condom”)
97%
IUD
95%
Condom (good brand)
plus spermicide
95%
Oral contraceptive
93%

16. Mostly Effective Birth Control Methods
Cervical cap
89%
Condom (good brand)
86%
Diaphragm plus
spermicide
84%
Rhythm method (Billings,
Sympto-Thermal)
84%
Vaginal sponge impreg-
nated with spermicide
83%
Spermicide (foam)
82%

17. Least Effective Birth Control Methods
Moderately Effective
Spermicide (creams,
jellies, suppositories)
75%
Withdrawal
74%
Rhythm method (daily
temperature readings)
74%
Condom (cheap brand)
70%
Unreliable
Douche
40%
Chance (no method)
10%

18. Factors Affecting Death Rates
Life expectancy: global average years = 69
Infant mortality rate = # of babies out of every 1,000 who die before 1st birthday ** Best single measure of a society’s quality of life (reflects nutrition, health care) 46 countries have lower infant mortality rates than USA
Improvements: Food, medicine, nutrition, medicine, sanitation, hygiene, water supply

19. Immigration into the US
41% of annual population growth
Source of immigrants into the US Pre 1960: Mostly Europe Post 1960: Latin America (53%), Asia (25%), Europe (14%)
Arguments to reduce immigration: 58% support • Allow population to stabilize • Reduce environmental impact
Arguments for immigration • “Give me your hungry, your tired your poor…’ • Tax revenues $$$ • immigrants occupy menial, low-paying jobs • After 2020 workers will be needed as Boomers retire

20. Population Age Structures% % %
Negative growth
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Expanding Rapidly
Guatemala
Nigeria
Saudi Arabia
Expanding Slowly
United States
Australia
Canada
Stable
Spain
Austria
Greece
Declining
Germany
Bulgaria
Italy
Prereproductive ages 0-14
Reproductive ages 15-44
Postreproductive ages
In 2005, 29% of people on planet were younger than 15 years old
Fig. 6-6, p. 102

21. Examples of age structure interaction
Animation
Examples of age structure interaction

22. Tracking the US Baby Boom Generation
Fig. 6-8, p. 103

23. U.S. age structure interaction.
Animation
U.S. age structure interaction.

24. Effects of Population Decline
40 nations have stable or declining populations
UN predicts that pop of most develop countries will stabilize by 2050 (not USA)
Rapid declines can create severe social and economic problems
Labor and social security problems
Social and economic impacts of AIDS

25. Solutions: Influencing Population Size
***Demographic transition
Family planning
Improve health care
Empowering women- worldwide, women account for 66% of hours worked, but receive 10% of world’s income. See stats of p.138
Developing national population policies
Improve education, especially for women
Increase involvement of men in parenting
Reduce poverty
Reduce unsustainable consumption

26. Demographic Transition
Stage 1
Preindustrial
Stage 2
Transitional
Stage 3
Industrial
Stage 4
Postindustrial
High 80 70 60
Birth rate 50
Birth rate and death rate (number per 1,000 per year)
Relative population size 40 30
Death rate 20 10
Total population
Low
Low
Increasing
Very high
Decreasing
Low
Zero
Negative
Growth rate over time
Fig. 6-10, p. 105

27. Animation- Demographic transition model

28. Case Study: Hindrances to Family Planning Programs in India
Poor planning of family planning programs
Bureaucratic inefficiency
Low status of women
Extreme poverty
Lack of administrative and financial support

29. Case Study: Family Planning in China
Economic incentives- extra food, larger pensions, better housing, $$
Free medical care for participants
Preferential treatment for participants- free school tuition
Very coercive and intrusive- free sterilization, contraception,
Human rights violations- gender imbalance, abortions, infanticide
China’s Pop could peak in 2040, then decline

30. Demographic Data on India and China
Percentage
of world
population
17%
20%
Population
1.1 billion
1.3 billion
Population (2025)
(estimated)
1.4 billion
1.63 billion
Illiteracy (%of adults)
47%
17%
Population under age 15(%)
36%
22%
Population growth rate (%)
1.6%
0.6%
3.0 children per woman (down from 5.3 in 1970)
Total fertility rate
1.7 children per woman (down from 5.7 in 1972)
Infant mortality rate 64 27
62 years
Life expectancy
71 years
Percent living below $2 per day 81 47
GDP PPP per capita
$2,880
$4,980