1. Applying Population Ecology: Human Population
Ch. 10

2. Demography
the study of size, structure, and make up of human populations. Demographers study the causes and important social, health and economic effects of population changes.

3. 10-1: Factors Affecting Human Population Size
Population size depends upon
birth rates
death rates
immigration rates (into area)
emigration rates (exit area)
Pop. change = (b + i) - (d + e)

5. Crude Birth and Death Rates
Instead of measuring births/deaths per year, demographers look at crude birth and death rates.
Natality- Number of individuals added through reproduction
Crude Birth Rate - Births per 1000
Mortality - Number of individuals removed through death
Crude Death Rate - Deaths per 1000

6. Global Population Change
Death rates have declined, however, not as fast as birth rates. Therefore, our global population is still increasing, yet at a slower rate.
More than 82% of the global pop. lives in DEVELOPING nations!
Annual rate of population change (%) = Birthrate – Death rate x 100
1,000 persons
*In 2004, the global growth rate was 1.25% annually. (~80 M people)
Most developed countries – 0.1%
Developing countries - ~1.15%

7. 4 ways to calculate a pop. rate of change ( r )
Total births - total deaths/ total population
r = 23, , 228 = = .66%
942,721
2. birth rate (b) -death rate (d)
r = = =0.7%
3. (Total births + total immigration) - (total deaths + total emigration)
total population
r = (23, )-(17, ) = = 1.4%
4. (birth rate+ immigration rate) - (death rate + emigration rate) x 100
r = ( ) - (18 + 3) = = 1.4%
Global
Local

8. Determining future Pops:
Remember: N (t) = N0ert
N(t) = population after t years
N0 = initial population size
r = growth rate
t = time

9. Determine the future population of Duttania:
Remember: N (t) = N0ert
The island of Duttania has 435 people. Their growth rate is 2%. What will be the population after 10 years?
A: 531 people.

10. Population Density # of indiv. of a species unit of area 9,166,605 Km2
ex. 270,000,000 people = 29 people/Km2 in the US
9,166,605 Km2

11. Doubling Time
Time to take for a population with a stable growth rate to double in size
Doubling Time =
td = 70/ r (growth rate)
Ex. Brazil will double its population in how many years with the present growth rate of 1.7%?
A: 70/1.7 = 41.2 years

12. Doubling Time

13. Demographic Facts: China India U.S. Indonesia Brazil
The nations that will experience the most growth over the next 50 years , in order:
India
China
Pakistan
Nigeria
Bangladesh
Indonesia
5 most populated countries, in order: (2004)
China
India
U.S.
Indonesia
Brazil

14. Effect of Fertility on Population Growth
Two types of fertility rates affect a country’s pop. size and growth:
1) Replacement-level fertility (RLF)- number of children that a couple should have to replace both parents (Developed countries 2.1 , Some developing countries 2.5- due to child mortality)

15. Effect of Fertility on Population Growth continued..
Total fertility rate (TFR) = average number of children that a woman will have in her reproductive years (0 - 5+)
In 2004, average global TFR was 2.8 / woman. This was a decline from 5/woman in (In 2004, Highest TFR was in Africa with average of 5.2)
Most useful measure of fertility for projecting future populations.

16. Global Total Fertility Rates

17. Population growth TFR > RLF = pop growth
TFR needs to drop to 2.1 in order to stabilize the population. (Takes into account infant mortality)
*NEED TO REDUCE # OF BIRTHS!
TFR > RLF = pop growth
TFR = RLF = steady population
TFR < RLF = pop slow down

18. 10 Factors affecting Birth rate and Fertility rate
Average level of education and affluence
Importance of children as a part of the labor force
Urban areas (with access to family planning)
Cost of raising and educating children
Education and employment opportunity for women
Infant mortality rate
Average age of marriage and 1st child
Availability of pension system
Availability of legal abortions
Birth control/religion

19. Factors affecting Death rate
Population increase is not necessarily due only to increased birth rate, but also decreased death rate.
Life expectancy – aver. # of years a newborn is expected to live
Infant mortality rate = # of babies out of 1000/year who died before their 1st birthday.
Important measure of quality of life since it is linked to so much of society!

20. 10-2: Population Age Structure
The age structure diagram sorts the number of people into groups.
The population is usually divided up into
Prereproductives (not mature enough to reproduce)
reproductives (capable of reproduction)
Postreproductives (too old to reproduce)
The age structure of a population dictates whether is will grow, shrink, or stay the same size.

21. Age Structure Diagrams
Positive Growth Slow Growth Negative Growth/ Zero Growth
Pyramid Shape Vertical Edges Inverted Pyramid

22. Be able to identify potential countries based on diagrams!

23. 10-3: Solutions: Influencing Population Size
Controversy over whether govts. should encourage/discourage pop. growth
China – 1 child law
India – limited access to family planning
Family Planning - providing educational and clinical services that help couples choose how many children to have and when to have them.

24. Demographic Transition Model1
Preindustrial 2
Transitional 3
Industrial 4
Post- industrial

25. 10-5: Cutting Global Population Growth
1994 – UN held conference to encourage action in stabilizing the global population to 7.8B by 2050, instead of the projected 8.9B.
180 countries agreed to follow the following guidelines by 2015:
Provide universal access to family planning service and
reproductive health care
Improve health care for infants, children and pregnant women
Develop and implement national pop. Policies
Improve status of women; expand educ. for women and young girls and job opportunities
Increase the involvement of men in child rearing responsibilities and family planning
Sharply reduce poverty – famine, disease, etc.
Greatly reduce unsustainable patterns of production and consumption

26. 10-4: Case Studies of China and India
Population Paradox movie will cover the details –
so take notes!

27. Success Stories:
Thailand – intro on p. 176
Iran – p. 190