1. Bird Monitoring in the Gulf of Mexico

2. ISSUE:
Lack baseline data per distribution and abundance for many bird species
Lack large-scale, coordinated bird monitoring effort

3. Urgency: $$$,$$$,$$$ and Restoration Projects Moving at Rapid Pace
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fws.gov

4. How do we address these key issues?
First Step…..Identify Objectives: based on values and data needs
Status Assessment
Which bird / group of birds to monitor?
Which habitat(s)?
What season – breeding, wintering, migration?
Management
Which management strategy to monitor?
Which habitat(s)?
What season – breeding, wintering, migration?
System Dynamics
Which system driver to monitor?
Which habitat(s)?
What season – breeding, wintering, migration?

5. Partners in Gulf of Mexico Bird Monitoring Working Group

6. Structured Decision Making Process
PrOACT
Problem framing
Objectives
Actions
Consequences
Trade-offs
Hammond, J. S., R. L. Keeney, and H. Raiffa Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Life Decisions. Broadway Books, New York, N.Y.

7. Underlying Principals
Problem Statement:
How do we develop a cost-effective bird monitoring strategy for the Gulf of Mexico that evaluates ongoing, chronic, and acute threats and conservation activities, maximizes learning, and is flexible and holistic enough to detect novel ecological threats with respect to management triggers and to evaluate new and emerging conservation activities?
Decision Maker = SDM Group + suite of additional partners
(also recognized that administrators and land managers may have different values per monitoring needs)
Decision = What monitoring projects to include in the Gulf of Mexico Bird Monitoring Strategy?

8. Vision: Integrated Restoration and Management
Conceptual Model
Threats
Hurricanes
Contaminants
Coastal Development
Vision: Integrated Restoration and Management
of the Gulf of Mexico Ecosystem
Conservation Planning
Implementation
Monitoring
Goal: Maximize Usefulness of Monitoring Data to Inform and Facilitate Bird Conservation in GoM
Bird Monitoring Strategy
SDM Value Models
Objectives
Communication
Data Management
[Process Objectives]
Survey Design
SOPs

9. Pathway for Moving the Conceptual Model to Reality
SDM Value Models:
Frames Bird Monitoring Issues and Provides Context;
Provides Insight per Values, Needs, and Priorities;
Long-term
Advocate for / Define
Bird Monitoring Program
Short-term
Develop Monitoring Framework
(Written Report that Documents the Underlying Decisions, Assumptions, Objectives, and Values of the SDM Effort)
Inform and Influence ($$$,$$$,$$$)
Develop and Implement New Surveys

10. Objectives Hierarchy for Bird Monitoring in Gulf of Mexico
Goal: Maximize Usefulness of Bird Monitoring Data to Inform Conservation Actions in GoM
Relevancy (60)
Rigor (40)
State of System (30)
Management (15)
Integration (15)
Status Assessment (15)
System Dynamics (15)

11. Status Assessment - Populations
Maximize understanding of baseline, status and trend information for priority birds
Wintering
Breeding
Migration
Stratification
Maximize number of priority species surveyed
Maximize survey duration (longevity of data collection)
Maximize the spatial scope of surveys
Sub-Objective
0 = No priority species
1 = 1 priority species
2 = 2 priority species
3 = 3 priority species
4 = ≥4 priority species
1= 1 to 4 years
2= 5 to 10 years
3 = 11 to 15 years
4 = 16 to 20 years
5 = 20+ years
0= No part of the priority species range
1 = <25 % of the priority species range
2 = 25 to 49% of the priority species range
3 = 50 to 75% of the priority species range
4 = >75% of the priority species range
Performance
Metric
Value Function

12. Status Assessment - Habitats
Maximize understanding of baseline, status and trend information of primary habitats
Stratification
Pine Savanna
Forested Wetland
Marsh
Beach-Dune
Island
Marine
Maximize collection of habitat quantity data
Maximize collection of habitat quality data
Sub-Objective
0 = Does not provide information on spatial extent, distribution, and acreage
1 = Provides information on spatial extent, distribution, and acreage – 1-25% of Gulf)
2 = Provides information on spatial extent, distribution, and acreage – (25-75% of Gulf)
3 = Provides information on spatial extent, distribution, and acreage (>75% of Gulf)
0 = No veg or water data
1 = Veg or water data (1-25% of Gulf)
2 = Veg and water data (1-25% of Gulf)
3 = Veg or water data (25-75% of Gulf)
4 = Veg and water data (25-75% of Gulf)
5 = Veg or water data (>75% of Gulf)
6 = Veg and water data (>75% of Gulf)
Performance
Metric
Value Function

13. Table to Assign Weights – Under Development
shorebirds
wading birds
Marsh-birds
seabirds
songbirds
waterfowl
raptors
Beach-Dune
Breeding
0.0079
Wintering
Migration
Pine Savanna
Forested Wetlands
Islands
Marsh
Blue-water

14. System Dynamics Hypothesis 1 Hypothesis 2 Hypothesis 3
Maximize understanding of system dynamics with respect to birds and their habitats within the Gulf of Mexico
Hypothesis 1
Hypothesis 2
Hypothesis 3
% Uncertainties of hypothesis addressed
% Uncertainties of hypothesis addressed
% Uncertainties of hypothesis addressed
The goal within this objective is to better articulate and understand the behavior of the Gulf of Mexico over time with respect to it’s ability to support healthy populations of birds.
The working group is currently working to organize a meeting with experts to identify a list of system drivers and to articulate conceptual models per their impacts to birds.

15. Management Maximize the number of priority species addressed
Maximize understanding of management actions on bird populations in Gulf of Mexico
Maximize the number of priority species addressed
Maximize the understanding of management action with greatest spatial applicability
Maximize understanding
of management actions with greatest uncertainty
Sub-Objective
Metric:
Weighted number of pubs
N*5 effect size vital rates
N*1 evaluation of mgmt response
Performance
Metric
Metric:
Taxonomic Scope
Metric:
Spatial Scope/Policy
Value Function

16. Rigor
Maximize scientific rigor of all surveys conducted within the Gulf of Mexico
Objectives & Hypotheses
Survey Design
Response Variable
Effect Size & Power Analysis
Statistical Analysis
Inference
Data Management Plan
Sub-Objectives
Budget
Timeline
Likelihood of Success

17. Rigor
Examples:
Maximize scientific rigor of all surveys conducted within the Gulf of Mexico
Sub-Objective
Objectives & Hypotheses
Survey Design
Effect Size & Power Analysis
0 = Not stated
1 = Effect generally stated
2 = Effect stated but not meaningful
3 = Effect well stated but no power analysis
4 = Effect well stated with power analysis
0 = Not stated or inappropriate
1 = Stated but poor fit
2 = Stated but untested
3 = Stated & good fit
0 = None Stated
1= Generally Stated
2 = Clearly Stated
Performance
Metric
Value Function

18. Integration Broader Impacts Address Established Priorities Partners
Maximize integration of objectives, partners, resources and standards across the Gulf of Mexico
Broader Impacts
Address Established Priorities
Partners
Data Sharing Policy
Sub-Objectives
Use Existing Classification Systems
Improves Existing Maps
Financial Match/Leverage
Use Existing Protocols
Use Existing Mapping Reference System
Use Existing Data Repositories
Use Existing Code Repositories

19. Integration Examples:
Maximize integration of objectives, partners, resources and standards across the Gulf of Mexico
Maximize implementation of surveys that address established priorities
Maximize collaboration among partners
Maximize financial match and leveraging among partners
Sub-Objective
0 = None stated
1 = General reference &
general priority
2 = Specific reference &
single plan; general priority
3 = Specific reference &
single plan; specific priority
4 = Specific reference &
multi-plans; specific priority;
0 = No match
1 = 0-25% match
2 =25-50% match
3 = % match
4 = % match
5 = >150% match
0 = An individual submission
1 = 1 collaborating partner
2 = 2-5 collaborating partners
3 = >5 collaborating partners
Performance
Metric
Value Function

20. Decision Support Tool:
Use of Value Models to Conduct Trade-off Analysis

21. Prototype List of Alternatives (Projects) – Means Objectives
Hypothetical List of Projects
Prototype Vers. 1.0

22. Alternatives Scored Against Performance Metrics
-- Consequence Table --
Raw Scores
Management effects
Antro. Threats
Ecol. Var.
Monitoring project
#hypoth
relevance to actions
#States
App of variable
#species
relevance to impacts
Variation source
Relevance
Cost
Salinization BACI (1 site, 6 yr, 5 sp) 1 5 9 3
750,000
Stewardship/predator control 2 4
2,000,000
Oil contamination 7
1,000,000
Marshbird productivity
Dredge on Barrier Islands 15
125,000
Dredge on Barrier Islands, replicated
500,000
Coastal devel. on least terns
Drought on mottled ducks 10
2,500,000
Hurricane impacts
3,000,000
Marsh creation 8
Human disturbance on beaches
650,000
Normalized Scores & Weighted Values (assigned weights)
Monitoring project
#hypoth
relevance to actions
#States
App of variable
#species
relevance to impacts
Variation source
Relevance
Value
Salinization BACI (1 site, 6 yr, 5 sp)
0.04
0.08
0.03
0.06
0.71
Stewardship/predator control
0.02
0.72
Oil contamination
0.00
0.26
Marshbird productivity
0.01
0.68
Dredge on Barrier Islands
Dredge on Barrier Islands, replicated
0.73
Coastal devel. on least terns
0.32
Drought on mottled ducks
0.05
0.55
Hurricane impacts
0.19
Marsh creation
0.07
0.66
Human disturbance on beaches
0.48
Prototype Vers. 2.0

23. Currently Exploring other Portfolio Constraints:
Taxa, Habitat, Fundamental Objective, etc.
Balanced Portfolio
Prototype Vers. 2.0

24. Decision Making – Which Portfolio to Select?
Pareto Efficiency Frontier – Cost/Benefit Ratio
Red Dots = Random Portfolios
Prototype Vers. 2.0

25. Pathway for Moving the Conceptual Model to Reality
Which bird / group of birds to monitor?
Which habitat(s)?
What season – breeding, wintering, migration?
Which management strategy to monitor?
Which system driver to monitor?
SDM Value Models:
Frames Bird Monitoring Issues and Provides Context;
Provides Insight per Values, Needs, and Priorities;
Trade-Off Analysis:
Decision Support Tool
for Funding Agencies
Which (portfolio) projects to fund?

26. Pathway for Moving the Conceptual Model to Reality
SDM Value Models:
Frames Bird Monitoring Issues and Provides Context;
Provides Insight per Values, Needs, and Priorities;
Long-term
Advocate for / Define
Bird Monitoring Program
Short-term
Develop Monitoring Framework
(Written Report that Documents the Underlying Decisions, Assumptions, Objectives, and Values of the SDM Effort)
Inform and Influence ($$$,$$$,$$$)
Develop and Implement New Surveys

27. Next Steps: Clean-up and Document Value Models
Solicit Review and Input
Draft a “Bird Monitoring Vision Document”
Finalize Value Models and Trade-Off Analysis Tool
Work with Partners to Inform Decision Makers of Bird Monitoring Values & Needs (to include a comprehensive bird monitoring Program
Work with Partners to Develop and Implement Surveys to Achieve Bird Monitoring Needs