1. Western Balkans Climate Resilience Workshop The World Bank experience from the Western Balkan countries Vienna, Austria, May 11-12, 2016
Igor Palandžić
Water Resources Specialist
Water Global Practice
World Bank

2. Climate Change and Integrated Water Resource Management
World Bank Group Technical Paper, High and Dry: Climate Change, Water, and the Economy:
The impacts of climate change will be channeled primarily through the water cycle.
This will jeopardize growth prospects in the regions worst affected and in some of the poorest countries.
Smart policies that induce water-use efficiency, align incentives across regional and trading partners, and invest in adaptive technologies can go a long way toward reducing or eliminating these negative effects.
September 18, 2018

3. Water and Climate Adaptation Plan in Sava River Basin
Increase climate- resilience of sector investments.
Enhance the discussion and capacity of stakeholders and decision makers on climate change adaptation.
Jointly with stakeholders develop approaches to introduce climate change adaption in water resources management and planning.
September 18, 2018

4. Water and Climate Adaptation Plan in Sava River Basin
International Sava River Basin Commission
Slovenia
Serbia
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Croatia
Hydrologic Trends
Meteorological Trends
Future Trends from GCM/RCMs
Simulated Future Climate Scenarios based on trends and GCMs
Hydrologic Model
Agriculture
Hydropower
Flood Control
Navigation
Water and Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin (WATCAP)
Economic
Hydrologic simulation through the model to provide
scenario development for sector guidance notes
September 18, 2018

5. Climate Change and Integrated Water Resource Management
Historical climate trends :
Analysis of the historical climate data generally shows warming trends in temperature, highly variable precipitation patterns, and a changing hydrology.
Mean temperature is rising throughout the SRB.
Long-term trends in precipitation are small or negligible, but a long-term oscillation in precipitation exists and produces a sequence of short-term trends with opposite directions.
Seasonal patterns of precipitation and temperature also shows changes over time, with variations in different seasons. Evaporation and evapotranspiration show increasing trends.
River discharge is declining significantly even though precipitation is declining little or not at all.
September 18, 2018

6. Water and Climate Adaptation Plan in Sava River Basin
Climate modeling and future climate scenarios
The future climate scenarios resulting from chains of global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs) were analyzed on a seasonal and annual basis for the two future periods outlined in the report: 2011–40 and 2041–70.
All five GCM/RCM models considered in the study showed a temperature increase across the SRB, with larger values apparent for 2041–70.
Precipitation change is, however, more complex. Although it shows only a slight decrease on the annual level, seasonal changes are more pronounced. Despite a lot of spatial variation, precipitation generally shows an increase during the winter and a decrease for the summer months. The summer precipitation deficit is more pronounced for 2041–70 than for 2011–40.
September 18, 2018

7. Water and Climate Adaptation Plan in Sava River Basin
Hydrologic simulations
mean flows - increase in runoff in the winter season, as a result of an increase in precipitation and a significant rise in temperatures.
low flows - great variation among the climate models but on average, Qmm80 is not likely to change in the near future, while a significant decrease could be expected in the distant future downstream of Sisak in Croatia
September 18, 2018

8. Water and Climate Adaptation Plan in Sava River Basin
Hydrologic simulations
flood flows - the hydrologic projections plainly indicate that floods will increase in the future due to climate change. The increase was shown to be greater for 100-year floods than for the 20-year events, thus suggesting an overall increase of the flood risk.
The greatest increase in floods is expected in the head part of the SRB, that is, in Slovenia (the Čatež hydrologic station) and in the main right tributaries (Kupa, Una, and Bosna). By the end of the 21st century, the 100-year floods along the Sava River will increase
September 18, 2018

9. Water and Climate Adaptation Plan in Sava River Basin
Navigation
River information systems
Dredging, more river transport in high-flow season
Flood
Flood forecasting systems and management plans (warning, evacuation, etc.)
More flood retention, flood plain management, city protection.
Hydropower/Storage
Invest in upstream retention with hydropower as additional benefit.
No hydropower development in ecologically sensitive zones.
General:
Improve data collection, hydrological studies, modeling
Regional cooperation, data exchange, joint forecasting and modeling
Agriculture:
Invest in water retention and irrigation
Use crop varieties that are less prone to the impact of droughts
Recomandations
Final result was developing the guidance notes on the climate change adaptation for various water sub-sectors, very useful for the countries in setting their future climate adaptation policy, as well as for the hydrological model of the Sava River Basin, which has recently been distributed to relevant national institutions (i.e. national hydro-meteorological services and water agencies) of the countries, for their use
September 18, 2018

10. Water and Climate Adaptation Plan in Sava River Basin
The recommendations are to be implemented irrespective of climate change adaption - planning horizons of years max.
Climate change adaptation in the water sector starts with establishing integrated water resources management.
Sector investments are to be accelerated, especially in flood management and protection.
Data, data, data, and models to constantly assess the changing uncertainties
Water sector climate adaptation plans need to be reassessed and updated regularly
Concluding remarks
September 18, 2018

11. The World Bank Activities in the region
Joint Flood Management in Sava River Basin (WBIF - EUR 2 million)
GEF/SCCF Drina River Basin Management Project (USD 8.7 million)
Support  WRM in Drina River Basin (WBIF - EUR 2 million)
Drina Flood Protection Project for B&H (USD 24 million IDA Credit)
BiH Floods Emergency Recovery Project (USD 100 million IBRD/IDA)
Serbia Floods Emergency Recovery Project (USD 299 million IBRD/IDA)
Concluding remarks
September 18, 2018

12. Regional Sava River Joint Flood Management Programme
The objective is to improve the quality and effectiveness of the joint flood management and forecasting capacities in the Sava River. The three major expected outcomes of the project are:
Operational flood forecasting and early warning system with installations in the riparian Sava River Basin countries Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia, Slovenia and Croatia.
Well trained staff in each of Riparian Countries.
Recommendations on future improvements of the forecasting system
Two components
Flood Risk Management Plan for the Sava River Basin, including Programme of Measures
Flood forecasting and warning system for the Sava River Basin
Needs for harmonized and coordinated regional approach to flood risk management and flood forecasting and warning system in the Sava River Basin.
WB is supporting this activity through a WBIF grant together with the International Sava River Basin Commission (ISRBC) and five riparian countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, Serbia and Slovenia.
Technical Assistance for the implementation of an integrated flood and drought forecasting system and a system for the dissemination of warnings, covering the complete Sava River Basin.
The three major expected outcomes of the project are:
Operational flood forecasting and early warning system with installations in the riparian Sava River Basin countries Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia, Slovenia and Croatia.
Well trained staff in each of Riparian Countries.
Recommendations on future improvements of the forecasting system.
September 18, 2018

13. Drina River Basin Management Project
The objective of the Project is to improve mechanisms and capacity of the Project Countries to plan and manage the transboundary Drina river basin, incorporating climate change adaptation. Project is expected to start by the end of 2016 and will include:
Component 1: Multi-State Cooperation in Transboundary DRB Management
Component 2: Pilot Investments for Integrated DRB Management Including Flood and Drought Management and Climate Change Resilience
Development of an agreed SAP mainstreaming transboundary IWRM and climate change adaptation in national planning
Preparation of a DRB SAP
Hydraulic and hydrologic model for the DRB with reservoir operation optimization
Preparation of water resources and basin study
Preparation of study for analyses of the pollution of DRB DRB
Strengthening capacity for climate change resilience
Strengthening of the DRB riparian countries HMS
Develop protocols to improve data compatibility among the DRB countries
Public Awareness Program
Small Grants Program
Improvement of the flood forecasting and early warning system at regional level
Pilot investments for basin climate change resilience and flood management
Works/ infrastructure and equipment to pilot climate change resilience approaches and designs
September 18, 2018

14. The main outcomes of the project are:
WBIF Regional Support for Water Resources Management in Drina River Basin
The overall objective of Drina River Basin Project is to support more effective water resources management in Drina river basin with a special focus on flood and drought mitigation, and hydropower and environmental management, based on “good practices”. This will involve support to water management authorities in riparian countries in preparation of the Investment Prioritization Framework for the Drina Basin.
The main outcomes of the project are:
Effective application of EU water framework directive (WFD) More effective data collection and analysis,
Enhanced dialogue and coordination in the DRB, and
Better decision-making and management in the DRB
September 18, 2018

15. Drina Flood Protection Project for B&H (USD 24 million IDA Credit)
BiH Floods Emergency Recovery Project (USD 100 million IBRD/IDA)
Serbia Floods Emergency Recovery Project (USD 299 million IBRD/IDA)
September 18, 2018

16. THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
Concluding remarks
September 18, 2018