1. Demography & population Dynamics -1
Dr.Ayesha Babar Kawish
Assistant Professor & coordinator MSPH
Al-Shifa School of Public Health

2. Is it important ?

3. Are we too many ?
The Population Crisis By 2050 the world’s population will have grown by another 3.5 billion, the same number as lived on the entire planet in Can a depleted planet support population growth? We look at both sides of the debate.

4. Basic concepts : Demos - population Graphy- study
The scientific study of human population in a given area usually a country ,during a year, with reference to size composition ,behavior and distribution.

5. 1-Size of Population :
Total number of persons residing in a country , which can be determined or enumerated by by “ Census “ so it is the quantity of the population.

6. 2-Composition of the Population :
It means breakdown of the population according to age ,sex, literacy level, occupation ,income , marital status, language spoken, religion etc. so it is the quality of the population.

7. 3-Behavior of the population :
-It means growth of the population over a period of decades ie. Positive growth ,zero growth or negative growth. -Behavior or trend of the population can be estimated through population projection -Growth rate of population is is the difference between the birth rate and the death rate. Growth rate when expressed as a number is called Demographic gap.

8. 4-Distribution of the population :
It means density of the population per square kilometer, rural urban population ratio and location of dense or sparse pockets of the population.

9. Processes influencing these factors are
Marriages
Birth
Death
Migration
Social mobilization
The study of all these processes which result in mode of change of population is called population dynamics.

10. Branches of demography :
Descriptive demography
Population studies
Economic demography
Social demography
Historical demography
Medical demography
Population genetics

11. Video regarding population dynamics :
Global population Growth by Hans Rosling
&
Don’t Panic

12. Who is a Demographer ?
The Demographer is concerned with the careful objective and systematic study of the population with a view to produce data helpful in making short term and long term policies for the government.

13. World Population Dynamics

14. Linkages of demography

15. SOURCES OF POPULATION DATA
Population censuses: The Most Basic Source
De facto
De jure
Registration system
Vital registration (birth, deaths, marriage, divorces)
Population registers
Service statistics (from health and family planning programs)
International migration statistics
Demographic sample surveys

16. SOURCES OF DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
Census
Registration of Vital Events (births and deaths)
Surveys
In developing countries ( Pakistan) registration of births & deaths is grossly
Demographic sample surveys are conducted yearly to estimate the births & deaths.
Incomplete
Unreliable

17. CENSUS Introduction & History=
The number of persons in any community can be determined by Counting .
Characteristic of population
Census is a
CENSUS
Counting
Demographic
Socio-economic

18. CENSUS
Process of collecting, compiling and publishing demographic, economic and social data pertaining to a specific time from all persons in a country.

19. Pakistan’s Other countries followed it
First complete census in SWEDEN (in 1749 A.D.)
Other countries followed it
In Indo – Pak the 1st census was taken between , and was repeated in Therefore , it has been carried out every 10th year.
Pakistan’s
1st in 1951,
2nd
3rd
4th
5th in & th ?

20. TYPES OF CENSUS
DE- FACTO A person is counted at the place he or she is found at the time of counting DE- JURE A person is counted at the place of his or her actual residence

21. INFORMATION FROM CENSUS
Population size
Urban-rural distribution
Marital status
Literacy/ educational attainment
Economic status
Occupation
Child population
Migration
Disability

22. METHODS OF CENSUS 1) Enumeration 2) Questionnaire
Census are taken by :
1) Enumeration
2) Questionnaire
3) Combined of both methods
First method is used in Pakistan and USA, while the Questionnaire method in England

23. Registration of Vital Events
Whereas “Census” is an intermittent counting of Population,
Registration of Vital Events
(e.g., births & deaths) keeps a continuous check on demographic changes.
If it is complete and accurate, it can serve as reliable source of health information.

24. System of Collection and Registration of Vital Events in Pakistan
The System used in Pakistan for the collection & registration of the vital events follow the following scheme:
Registration of Births & Deaths
The Registration of births and deaths is carried out throughout the provinces of Pakistan, excepting the Agencies and Tribal areas of KPK, Balochistan, Trans fronted tract of Dera Ghazi Khan district and Kalat divisions

25. In Quetta, the registration confined to Quetta city & Cantonment only
There is a uniform system of registration in the areas comprising Punjab, KPK, and the former Bahawalpur state. The area of Sindh Province has however a different type of system for registering these events.
From Medical Institutions, Rural and Urban Areas:
The hosps & dispensaries supply info pertaining births & deaths taking place in these institutions to the local health auths.
In the Urban areas :
The births and deaths registration is done by local bodies.
In rural areas:
Done by the village Headman or Union Council.

26. Surveys
Purpose
Obtain information from a sample representative of some population
Content
Varies widely e.g. fertility, child mortality, migration
Essential characteristics
Representative sample of some population but smaller size than census allows collection of more in-depth information that can then be generalized

27. Types of surveys Census-type household survey Focused (CPR)
Single-round retrospective
Census-type household survey
Focused (CPR)
Birth / maternity history
Health / Family Planning monitoring
Summary of DHS
Multi-round follow-up (prospective)

28. OVERVIEW OF DATA COLLECTION TECHNIQUES
Data-collection techniques allow us to systematically collect information about our objects of study (people, objects) and about the settings in which they occur.
In the collection of data we have to be systematic. If data are collected haphazardly, it will be difficult to answer questions in a conclusive way.

29. Various data collection techniques
Secondary Data:
Using available information
Primary data:
Observing
Interviewing (face-to-face)
Administering written questionnaires
Focus group discussions
Projective techniques, mapping
Choice depends on several factors (cost, time, survey content, etc.)

30. Using available information
Usually there is a large amount of data that has already been collected by others, although it may not necessarily have been analyzed or published.
Locating these sources and retrieving the information is a good starting point in any data collection effort.

31. Observing
OBSERVATION is a technique that involves systematically selecting, watching and recording behavior and characteristics of living beings, objects or phenomena.
Observation of human behavior is a much-used data collection technique. It can be undertaken in different ways:
Participant observation: The observer takes part in the situation he or she observes.
Non-participant observation: The observer watches the situation, openly or concealed, but does not participate.

32. Observations of human behavior can form part of any type of study, but as they are time consuming they are most often used in small-scale studies.
Observations can also be made on objects. For example, the presence or absence of a latrine and its state of cleanliness may be observed. Here observation would be the major research technique.

33. Interviewing
An INTERVIEW is a data-collection technique that involves oral questioning of respondents
Answers to the questions posed during an interview are recorded by writing them down or by tape-recording the responses, or by a combination of both.

34. Administering written questionnaires
A WRITTEN QUESTIONNAIRE is a data collection tool in which written questions are presented that are to be answered by the respondents in written form. (also referred to as self-administered questionnaire)

35. A written questionnaire can be administered in different ways
Sending questionnaires by mail with clear instructions on how to answer the questions and asking for mailed responses;
Gathering all or part of the respondents in one place at one time, giving oral or written instructions, and letting the respondents fill out the questionnaires; or
Hand-delivering questionnaires to respondents and collecting them later.

36. Mapping
Mapping is a valuable technique for visually displaying relationships and resources.
In a water supply project, It can be used to present the placement of wells, distance of the homes from the wells, other water systems, etc.
It gives researchers a good overview of the physical situation and may help to highlight relationships hitherto unrecognized.
Mapping a community is also very useful and often indispensable as a pre-stage to sampling.

37. Possible sources of bias during data collection:
Defective instruments
Observer bias
Effect of the interview on the informant
Information bias

38. Defective instruments
Questionnaires with:
Fixed or closed questions on topics about which little is known;
Open-ended questions without guidelines on how to ask (or to answer) them;
Vaguely phrased questions;
‘Leading questions’ that cause the respondent to believe one answer would be preferred over another; or
Questions placed in an illogical order.

39. Observer bias
Observer bias can easily occur when conducting observations or utilizing loosely structured group- or individual interviews.
There is a risk that the data collector will only see or hear things in which (s)he is interested or will miss information that is critical to the research.

40. Memory or Recall Bias
Another common information bias is due to gaps in people’s memory
A mother may not remember all details of her child’s last diarrhea episode and of the treatment she gave two or three months afterwards.
For such common diseases it is advisable to limit the period of recall, asking, for example, ‘Has your child had diarrhoea over the past two weeks?’

41. Effect of the interview on the informant
This is a possible factor in all interview situations. The informant may mistrust the intention of the interview and dodge certain questions or give misleading answers.

42. Information bias
Sometimes the information itself has weaknesses. Medical records may have many blanks or be unreadable. This tells something about the quality of the data and has to be recorded.

43. ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
Need to consider whether our research procedures are likely to cause any physical or emotional harm.
Violating informants’ right to privacy by posing sensitive questions or by gaining access to records which may contain personal data;
Allowing personal information to be made public which informants would want to be kept private, and
Failing to observe/respect certain cultural values, traditions or taboos valued by your informants.

44. Other Sources of Demographic Data
Notification of Diseases
Hospital Records
Disease Registries
Other Health Services Record
Record Linkage
Health Manpower Statistics
Environmental Health Statistics
Population based Epidemiological studies